UFC 259 odds are already on the board for what looks like one of the most stacked cards in MMA history, on March 6. In the main event, current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya will make his light heavyweight debut as he gets an immediate title shot against Jan Blachowicz.
Despite Adesanya jumping up to the 205-pound division (and refusing to bulk up for the move), UFC odds have the Last Stylebender as a sizable -250 favorite while Blachowicz comes back at +200.
Here are the UFC betting odds for the main event and every other bout on the UFC 259 card:
Where will UFC 259 take place?
UFC 259 will take place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Who is fighting at UFC 259?
UFC 259 is an absolutely stacked card from top to bottom. In addition to Adesanya vs. Blachowicz, two other championship fights will take place with Amanda Nunes once again a massive favorite as she defends her featherweight title against Megan Anderson, while Petr Yan makes his first defense of his bantamweight title against No. 1 challenger Aljamain Sterling.
Other big fights on the card include a battle between light heavyweight contenders Aleksandr Rakic and Thiago Santos, Joseph Benavidez vs. Askar Askarov and Islam Makhachev vs. Drew Dober, while former two-time bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz returns to the octagon against Casey Kenney.
"It’s going to be a monster handle," William Hill US director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. “Most of these favorites are -220 or less, so there should be a lot of competitive fights. Dana [White] put out a really good card. Bunch of good two-way action on a lot of these fights, too. UFC might decide our fate [Saturday] instead of basketball, for once."
Blachowicz vs Adesanya betting action
UPDATE 11:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With UFC 259 closing in on the main event, FanDuel has the moneyline at Adesanya -250/Blachowicz +205. Adesanya is taking 72 percent of bets and 81 percent of cash.
UPDATE 9:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Shortly before the five-bout main card begins, BetMGM Nevada has the main event at Adesanya -260/Blachowicz +210, slightly lower than the -270/+220 opening price. "Sixty-four percent of tickets on the favorite, and the money is just over 2/1 on Adesanya," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said, while noting there are a few mid-five-figure bets on Adesanya, who is also seeing plenty of parlay action.
Previous Blachowicz vs Adesanya action
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The moneyline for the main event is currently Adesanya -245/Blachowicz +205 at The SuperBook. "Great volume, mostly two-way action at this point," SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said, noting the larger issue is on whether this fight goes the distance. "Plenty of money for Adesanya to win in the third and fourth rounds, which would hurt us in the props for now. Most of the money is on Over 2.5 rounds, as well."
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: PointsBet USA pegged Adesanya as -270 chalk to open, with Blachowicz +205, and the moneyline is down to -230/+180. But that's not indicative of the action. "It's pretty lopsided on Adesanya, who is taking 89 percent of bet count and 92 percent of handle," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said.
UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Adesanya opened -260 on Feb. 10 at William Hill US and has seen his price tighten a bit since then. On Friday afternoon, a day out from the fight, he was down to -240, and as of 8:30 p.m. ET Friday night, Adesanya is -230 to Blachowicz's +195. Despite the move, the book is rooting for the underdog. "We need Blachowicz pretty good right now," William Hill US director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "Adesanya came in several pounds below weight, and they still don’t care. They must think that him being light will work out in his favor. When push comes to shove, we’ll probably end up with more straight bets on the 'dog and a ton of parlays on Adesanya."
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Nick Kalikas, MMA oddsmaker for Circa Sports in Las Vegas, pegged Israel Adesanya as a -250 favorite to Jan Blachowicz's +215 when this number first posted Jan. 10. As of Thursday afternoon, two days before UFC 259, the moneyline has tightened a bit to Adesanya -235/Blachowicz +200. "Heavy two-way action from the start," Kalikas said. "Despite moving up a weight class and being undersized, the current middlweight king Adesanya is still getting a decent amount of respect from our bettors. As we approach fight day, we're starting to see slightly more action on the underdog B?achowicz come in, and I'd expect this to continue until post."
Nunes vs Anderson betting action
UPDATE 9:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Amanda Nunes opened a -1,100 favorite at BetMGM and is down to -900, with Megan Anderson a +600 underdog in the co-main tonight. "As far as straight bets go, it's way lopsided to the underdog, 92 percent of tickets and 95 percent of money on Anderson," Shelton said. "But the parlays are the opposite, 2/1 parlay money on Nunes."
Previous Nunes vs Anderson action
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY:Massive favorite Amanda Nunes is down to -900 chalk at The SuperBook, with Megan Anderson +600 as straight bets roll in on the big plus-money underdog. "We are way out to Anderson, which is fine for me," Beyers said. "You won't get a discount trying to bet Nunes here, as we think she is far too cheap at this point. It's typical for people to bet a little to try to win a lot, and that is happening again here."
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY:At PointsBet USA, Amanda Nunes hit the odds board at -1,250 to Megan Anderson's +650, and the huge disparity has tightened somewhat to -1,110/+600. Unlike other books, though, straight bettors aren't shying away from the heavy price on the favorite. "It's one of our most lopsided fights of the night, with 89 percent of bets and 95 percent of handle on Nunes," Yearout said.
UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Amanda Nunes opened a huge -1,300 favorite at William Hill US for her women's featherweight title bout against Megan Anderson, who opened +800. On Friday night, the moneyline is down to Nunes -1,000/Anderson +650. "It’s possible that Nunes can drop down even more. I think you could see -900/+600 or -800/+550, somewhere in that area," Bogdanovich said. "Straight bets are mostly on Anderson, with a bunch of parlays on Nunes. Even with the line as high as it is, Nunes is such a big name that this fight will still be highly bet." To Bogdanovich's point, 56 percent of straight-bet tickets and 73 percent of straight-bet dollars are on the big underdog Anderson, as bettors hope for the big plus-money upset.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Amanda Nunes opened a massive -1,100 favorite to Megan Anderson's +745 at Circa Sports on Jan. 10, and the current price is -925/+655. "Nothing too crazy yet action-wise on this intriguing women's featherweight title fight," Kalikas said. "Most public bettors are taking a shot on Megan Anderson, hoping to cash in big. On the other side of that, we're seeing lots of parlay action come in on Nunes, as bettors are mixing her in with other sports, as well. Nunes should be one of the most popular parlay pieces of the entire weekend."
Yan vs Sterling betting action
UPDATE 9:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Petr Yan is a -140 favorite and Aljamain Sterling a +120 underdog at BetMGM Nevada. "A few more tickets and a few more dollars on the underdog Sterling. It's really close," Shelton said.
Previous Yan vs Sterling action
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The SuperBook currently has this title bout priced at Petr Yan -135/Aljamain Sterling +115. "Much more money on Yan at this point, though there are many people I respect on both sides," Beyers said. "With our limits being fairly high – $5,000 on all UFC sides, $20,000 on the main event for anyone – that could change in a hurry later on."
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: PointsBet USA opened this bantamweight title bout opened at Petr Jan -130/Aljamain Sterling +105, and that's the current price. "One of our closer fights in terms of bet count. Yan is seeing slightly more action on tickets at 52 percent, and 65 percent of handle is on Yan, as well," PointsBet's Yearout said.
UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Petr Yan hit the William Hill US odds board at -135 to Aljamain Sterling's +115, and on Friday night the price was at -125/+105. Ticket count is running very close, with Yan at 52 percent, but the favorite is seeing 71 percent of money thus far.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: This bantamweight title bout is much more evenly matched, opening at Petr Yan -130/Aljamain Sterling +110 and sitting at Yan -120/Sterling even money two days before UFC 259. And it's been an attractive matchup at Circa Sports. "The most popular fight at the betting window," Kalikas said. "Since we opened our line, more overall action has come in on Sterling, as bettors couldn't wait to scoop up the plus-money value on the title challenger. Sterling is riding an incredible hot streak, beating several of the best bantamweights in the world and coming in off a dominating performance over rising star Cory Sandhagen. Sterling's stock is definitely at an all-time high and bettors are taking note. That said, I think people are sleeping on Yan some here. Yan has looked unstoppable on his rise to the top and has the skill set to make this fight an instant classic, as he should be able to neutralize a lot of what Sterling has to offer. I think we could see this line flip by fight day."
Other UFC 259 betting action
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Rex Beyers, risk manager at The SuperBook, pointed to the top bout on the preliminary card, where Casey Kenney is a -135 favorite against +115 underdog Dominick Cruz. "Good volume on Kenney vs. Cruz, and it's two-way action," Beyers said.
Previous UFC 259 analysis
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Islam Makhachev opened a sturdy -330 favorite at PointsBet USA, with Drew Dober +260, and that price has stretched to Makhachev -425/Dober +310. "Very lopsided action right now, with Makhachev taking 95 percent of bets and 96 percent of handle," PointsBet's Yearout said.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Kalikas dove deep to one of the bouts on the early prelims card Saturday: Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews in a welterweight clash. Circa Sports opened the mathcup at Brady -265/Matthews +225 on Jan. 10 and saw substantial movement, with the moneyline now Brady -200/Matthews +175. "Undefeated welterweight prospect Sean Brady is getting a big test this weekend," Kalikas said. "Since our line opened, we've seen a decent amount of sharp action on the underdog Jake Matthews and more public support laying the chalk on Brady. Action-wise, this one is playing out like a Pros vs. Joes type of situation."
UFC 259 odds
| Weight Class | Favorite | Odds | Underdog | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Light Heavyweight | Israel Adesanya | -240 | Jan Blachowicz | +185 |
| Women's Featherweight | Amanda Nunes | -834 | Megan Anderson | +550 |
| Bantamweight | Petr Yan | -135 | Aljamain Sterling | +108 |
| Light Heavyweight | Aleksandr Rakic | -200 | Thiago Santos | +160 |
| Bantamweight | Casey Kenney | -135 | Dominick Cruz | +108 |
| Flyweight | Askar Askarov | -135 | Joseph Benavidez | +108 |
| Bantamweight | Song Yadong | -170 | Kyler Phillips | +130 |
| Lightweight | Islam Makhachev | -450 | Drew Dober | +320 |
| Flyweight | Tim Elliott | -120 | Jordan Espinosa | -105 |
| Flyweight | Kai Kara-France | -140 | Rogério Bontorin | +112 |
| Lightweight | Uroš Medi? | -180 | Aalon Cruz | +142 |
| Welterweight | Sean Brady | -225 | Jake Matthews | +175 |
| Light Heavyweight | Carlos Ulberg | -250 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | +195 |
| Women's Strawweight | Amanda Lemos | -230 | Livinha Souza | +180 |
| Bantamweight | Mario Bautista | -240 | Trevin Jones | +185 |
Odds courtesy of PointsBet USA
UFC 259 odds for title fights
Jan Blachowicz vs Israel Adesanya
When Jon Jones vacated the light heavyweight title for a shot at heavyweight glory, there was briefly a big void in the division that Jones had dominated for a decade. Well, that void has been filled in a hurry by the world's best striker, Israel Adesanya, who will look to become a two-division champ as he makes his debut at 205 pounds.
Adesanya has essentially cleaned out the middleweight division after knocking out Paulo Costa at UFC 253 last September. The Last Stylebender is now 20-0 in his career, including 9-0 since joining the UFC in 2018.
Not only is Adesanya an incredible kickboxer with fantastic movement and surprising power, but his charisma and brash personality adds to his value as a UFC superstar. It definitely played a factor in UFC president Dana White allowing Adesanya to skip the queue ahead of other LHW contenders. And with Jan Blachowicz soon to be 38 years old, he's likely looking forward to the big payday that a name like Adesanya will bring as well.
Blachowicz claimed the vacant title with a second-round knockout victory over Dominick Reyes as the co-main event at UFC 253. He came into that fight as a +225 underdog and will look to beat the odds again.
After an up-and-down start to his UFC career, Blachowicz has turned things around, winning eight of his last nine fights. He's a strong technical striker with "legendary Polish power" but is also an underrated grappler with nine submission wins in his career.
Amanda Nunes vs Megan Anderson
Amanda Nunes is the reigning women's bantamweight and featherweight champion and is widely considered the great female fighter in MMA history. That said, coming in as a -1,200 favorite is still pretty wild, especially considering that she has never opened as bigger than a -530 favorite in any of her previous six title defenses.
The Lioness is fresh off a unanimous decision victory over Felicia Spencer last June and has now won 11 fights in a row, including first-round finishes of former champs Holly Holm, Cris Cyborg, Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate.
Megan Anderson comes into this fight as a massive +700 underdog but is fresh off back-to-back stoppage wins. Anderson is the tallest female fighter on the UFC roster and takes advantage of her reach advantage with high-level kickboxing ability. The Aussie is the rare female fighter that racks up finishes, with her last nine wins all ending via stoppage.
Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling
Petr Yan makes his first defense of the 135-pound belt as a slim -138 favorite. The Russian is a perfect 7-0 since joining the UFC and is coming off a dominating win against Jose Aldo, where Yan claimed the vacant title after pounding on the former featherweight champ for five rounds before the ref finally waved the fight off.
The 27-year-old is one of the UFC's rising stars and has the best boxing in the division, with extremely polished footwork, crisp combos and power in his hands.
Aljamain Sterling comes into UFC 259 on a five-fight winning streak, most recently a first-round submission victory over No. 2 contender Cory Sandhagen last summer. The Funk Master is a terrific wrestler with high-end grappling and submission ability, but has also improved as a striker.
Where can I bet on UFC odds?
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