UFC Fight Night Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley Predictions, Picks & Odds

Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley serves as the main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night on June 14.

Usman was, at one point, a dominant welterweight champion on a fantastic run, but now, he faces Buckley not for a title, but is instead potentially fighting for his career.

Buckley is on a six-fight win streak and comes in as a -250 favorite according to UFC odds, and my Usman vs. Buckley predictions explain why and how he'll win.

Usman vs Buckley prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Buckley ML (-250 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Buckley by decision (+200 at BET99)

Fight analysis
At one point, Kamaru Usman was a dominant welterweight champion and one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. But Father Time came for him three years ago when a head kick from Leon Edwards ended his title reign and sparked a three-fight losing streak.

Now 38 years old and coming off an 18-month layoff, Usman is making his comeback against a prime contender in Joaquin Buckley, a surging threat who’s made a habit of humbling aging veterans as he closes in on a title shot.

To Usman’s credit, he hasn’t been entirely outclassed during his skid. He was winning the Edwards fight before the knockout, nearly edged him in the rematch, and gave a respectable performance against Khamzat Chimaev in a short-notice middleweight bout where he kept pace with the larger man — actually coming on strong in the later rounds.

Statistically, Usman still holds the edge in striking accuracy, significant strike differential, and takedown average, especially given that he earned these stats against elite competition.

However, with experience comes mileage. Usman has shown signs of wear from a long and grueling career, including chronic knee issues and visible slippage in speed and reaction time.

Meanwhile, Buckley is riding a six-fight win streak since moving down to welterweight, and is coming off knockout wins over Stephen Thompson and Colby Covington, Usman’s longtime rival.

Buckley brings speed, power, and an increasingly polished skillset that makes him a unique threat in the division.

The two numbers that matter most here are seven and eighteen: Usman is seven years older and hasn’t fought in eighteen months. Recent training footage shows him wearing knee braces, and his history of knee issues, along with the ring rust, suggests he won’t be coming into this fight at 100%.

While his wrestling might neutralize some of Buckley’s grappling, he’ll likely be too slow to avoid the early pressure, and Buckley’s leg kicks and power shots could chip away at the aging champion.

The call here is Buckley continues to sunset the previous welterweight era by taking down its biggest star, scoring a clear, possibly emphatic win over a fading Usman.

Best bet analysis
Usman’s only KO loss came via Leon Edwards’ hail mary head kick, but the inactivity and size difference between these two make a Buckley finish a tantalizing option.

Though Usman will fight as hard as he can manage, Buckley is likely to be too much for the veteran to handle, especially with Usman’s compromised knees providing an easy target.

Usman gets credit for his durability, and his recent performances suggest he’ll be game and not go down so easily despite his recent skid.

Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley odds

Method of Victory	Usman	Buckley
To win outright	+205	-250
To win by KO/TKO	+370	+160
To win by decision	+475	+200
To win by submission	+2400	+1900
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 6-12.

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Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley tale of the tape

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