Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales Predictions, Picks & Odds

Flyweights Matt Schnell and Joseph Morales get a chance under the big lights in the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night.

Morales is the prohibitive favorite at -400 while Schnell is a +295 underdog. Here are my free Schnell vs. Morales predictions and UFC picks for this Las Vegas bout.

Schnell vs Morales prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Morales ML (-475 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Fight not to go the distance (-280 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Joseph Morales is quietly rebuilding his career in his second UFC run. After being released by the UFC in 2018 following back-to-back losses, Morales took a three-year hiatus, reevaluated his game, and returned as a more composed and durable fighter. 

Now riding a six-fight winning streak, he’s making noise in the quiet division. His upset submission win over previously undefeated Alibi Idiris at UFC 319 served as notice to the flyweight division that there’s a new player in town.

How he benefits from going from the Idiris upset to Matt Schnell is a bit of a head scratcher. Schnell has some good qualities offset by bigger liabilities; he has fast hands, excellent scrambling instincts, and strong BJJ, but is constantly hampered by a shaky chin and overall poor defense. 

He’s been finished in three of his last five, and did not look impressive in his win over Jimmy Flick, where he was taken down five times. Schnell fights best off the counter, which is a problem because he’s not an effective counter-striker and has durability issues.

Morales works with steady wrestling pressure, debilitating top control, and an aggressive game plan focused on getting his opponents on the mat.

He averages 41% takedown accuracy and rarely overextends on entries, which will serve him well as Schnell will likely look to ensnare him in a scramble.

His biggest limitation is his striking, where he’s overly conservative and lacks refinement. However, his grappling skills and conditioning are good enough that he can shut down opponents who are unable to keep him outside.

Schnell’s path to victory lies in keeping the fight standing and forcing Morales into uncomfortable striking exchanges. His hand speed and length could give him early success, especially if Morales struggles to close the distance.

However, Schnell’s takedown defense has never been reliable, and his tendency to overcommit on counters leaves him vulnerable to level changes. Given Schnell’s inconsistency and Morales’ momentum, I’m going with Morales to grind out a win.

Best bet analysis
Schnell might try something dramatic early on, but Morales’ composure and wrestling will dictate the fight. A submission win for Morales isn’t out of the question, and the same can be said for Schnell, who could outslick Morales on the ground long enough to tap him out.

Considering Schnell’s bad chin as well as his ground vulnerabilities, my best bet is that this fight does not go the distance.

Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales odds

Method of Victory	Schnell	Morales
To win outright	+325	-475
To win by KO/TKO	+1300	+310
To win by decision	+1350	+250
To win by submission	+790	+140
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 11-8.

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Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales tale of the tape

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