Lightweights Ismael Bonfim and Chris Padilla face off in a high-stakes showdown between two emerging prospects, and this clash between a stylistic striker and blue-collar wrestler serves as our featured undercard attraction of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night.
Bonfim is a -120 favorite in the UFC odds, while Padilla is a +100 underdog. Here are my Bonfim vs. Padilla predictions and free betting picks from Las Vegas.
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Padilla vs Bonfim prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Padilla moneyline (+100 at BET99)
- My best bet: Padilla moneyline (+100 at BET99)
Fight analysis
The Bonfim brothers take center stage on this card, with Ismael Bonfim looking to get back on track following a disappointing setback against Nazim Sadykhov.
Bonfim is the better fighter on paper, but the lingering question is whether or not his confidence is intact after refusing to come out of his corner after Sadykhov nailed him with a beauty of a face kick. Padilla has momentum and physicality, and he’s the type of fighter who will make Bonfim work for a rebound win.
Bonfim remains a dynamic, versatile striker who can attack from multiple angles. He throws spinning elbows, flying knees, and seemingly wild combinations, all while remaining defensively responsible. He’s landing 5.73 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.10, a sharp +2.63 differential that reflects serious offensive upside.
However, he is a fighter who needs to admire his work to maintain his confidence. If disrupted, his tempo and confidence can abruptly fall apart.
Enter Padilla, a rugged, confident pressure fighter who has quietly built a 3-0 start in the UFC.
He’s not especially slick, but he’s efficient. He throws tight, fundamental combinations, can wrestle when the pace demands it, and carries real physical strength. His most recent win over Jai Herbert showed that he can push forward, cut the cage, and fight intelligently to beat a methodical opponent.
With a three-inch reach advantage and a willingness to mix in takedowns, Padilla can make things very hard for Bonfim, possessing a style that could stall his momentum and test his resolve.
This matchup ultimately comes down to Bonfim’s activity versus Padilla’s pressure. If Bonfim gets comfortable early, his speed and creativity can overwhelm Padilla. Then again, Padilla can crowd him and make Bonfim second-guess his own offense if he keeps getting backed up or mauled against the cage.
Padilla’s greater momentum and sturdier mindset may end up being the difference, and I’m seeing enough in what he brings to the table to pick him to spring the minor upset.
Best bet analysis
Padilla has the durability, forward pressure, and wrestling to challenge Bonfim’s confidence, and unless Bonfim scores early damage, this likely becomes a grind. My best bet is Padilla on the moneyline.
Chris Padilla vs Ismael Bonfim odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Padilla | Bonfim |
| To win outright | +100 | -120 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +425 | +425 |
| To win by decision | +450 | +170 |
| To win by submission | +400 | +1800 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 11-8.
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Chris Padilla vs Ismael Bonfim tale of the tape
| Padilla | Bonfim | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 74 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 16-6 | Record | 20-5 |
| 8 | Wins by KO | 9 |
| 5 | Wins by submission | 4 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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