UFC Fight Night Maness vs Nurmagomedov Picks and Predictions: Nathan Taps Early

Nathan has proven to be a versatile fighter, and has even picked up a couple of underodg wins on the road to this fight. But will he be able to pick up one more on Saturday? Find out in our UFC Fight Night betting picks for Maness vs. Nurmagomedov.

Last Updated: Jun 25, 2022 8:02 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Nate Maness vs. Umar Nurmagomedov is scheduled for three rounds in the bantamweight division as a featured attraction on tonight’s edition of UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas. Umar hopes to keep both his perfect record and sterling reputation of the Nurmagomedov name alive against the capable Nate Maness.

Nurmagomedov is heading down the scales from featherweight, and along with an advantage in physical size, his UFC odds show he is an almost insurmountable favorite at -900. Backers on Maness to pull off the upset of the year can collect +625 betting on the once-beaten Kentuckian.

Here are our best free UFC Fight Night: Maness vs. Nurmagomedov picks and predictions for June 25 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Maness vs Nurmagomedov fight odds

Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Maness vs Nurmagomedov method of victory odds

Method of Victory Nathan Maness Umar Nurmagomedov
To win by KO/TKO +1,500 +460
To win by Points +1,200 +160
To win by Submission +2,000 +145
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 25, 2022.

Maness vs Nurmagomedov picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Maness vs Nurmagomedov betting preview

Nathan Maness isn’t as totally outgunned as the odds indicate. Umar Nurmagomedov uses his striking as a positioning tool, and it’s here where Maness holds an advantage. “Mayhem” has five knockouts and is coming off a KO win of Tony Gravely last September that he got with a beauty of a counter-hook that led to a ground-and-pound. 

This will be his third straight fight as an underdog, and he’s won his last two with the odds against him. In this case, Maness can make things interesting if he keeps the fight standing and avoids Nurmagomedov’s submissions. With advantages in height and reach, not to mention an 86% takedown defense, he won’t be as easy an out as the odds may indicate. 

Nurmagomedov’s paths to victory include forcing the fight to the ground and using his perceived size advantage to maintain control on the mat. If Maness can stuff enough takedowns and punish Nurmagomedov for getting greedy, he might have a window of opportunity open up long enough for him to spring the upset.

With a perfect 14-0 record, Umar is on the cusp of being regarded as more than Khabib’s cousin. The submission specialist is coming off a first-round submission win over Brian Kelleher at UFC 272 and is moving down to bantamweight where he figures to be no less effective while packing on size. A win over Maness figures to propel him towards a meaningful fight in the stacked bantamweight division.

The Dagestani grappler has excellent conditioning and mobility, not to mention being a terror on the mat. Nurmagomedov is an accurate striker and has an astonishing 83% defense rate against significant strikes, but his bread and butter is his focused takedown game, where he attempts 7.56 takedowns per fight. His average fight time clocks right under six minutes; a testament to his finishing skills.

Maness vs Nurmagomedov tale of the tape

Nathan Maness   Umar Nurmagomedov
30 Age 26
5-foot-10 Height 5-foot-8
142 lbs Weight 146 lbs
72 inches Reach 69 inches
14-1 (5 KOs) Record 14-0 (1 KOs)

Maness vs Nurmagomedov UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Alas, it isn’t meant to be for Maness. Being decent in multiple areas doesn’t bode well against a fighter who is trending towards being exceptional. Maness hasn’t been in the octagon with a fighter with Nurmagomedov’s versatility, so he has a puncher’s chance if he somehow manages to break through his opponent’s sturdy defense.

What will be interesting is to see how the new weight class will fit Umar. The added weight will make his grappling that much more dangerous, and may even put some mustard on his strikes where there wasn’t before. He’ll have to overcome slight disadvantages in height and reach, but we expect him to do just that before successfully bringing Maness to the canvas.

Nurmagomedov will win as expected, but at -900, we’ll have to look elsewhere to find some value here. 

Prediction: Nurmagomedov to win (-900 at DraftKings)

We’re banking on Nurmagomedov’s newfound size advantage to boost his grappling, which should see him take Maness to the ground that much quicker. Once he’s gotten him down there, he’ll be hard to fight off when he starts fishing for submissions.

For those who want to play it safe, a straight-up bet on a submission picks up +100. While that’s a fine line by itself, picking Umar to get the tap out in the first round more than doubles the payout. Because of that, we’re liking Nurmagomedov to submit Maness before the end of the first round at +250. 

Pick: Nurmagomedov to win by submission in Round 1 (+250 at DraftKings)

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