Gillian Robertson looks to score her fifth win in a row and push her way closer to title contention when she faces strawweight bruiser Amanda Lemos in the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night, taking place inside the Apex.
Robertson is the UFC odds favorite at -200, while Lemos is a +160 underdog. The surging Robertson is hitting her stride, and my Lemos vs. Robertson predictions and free betting picks think she’ll get Lemos on the mat to score another win.
Lemos vs Robertson prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Robertson moneyline (-200 at BET99)
- My best bet: Robertson by submission (+285 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Amanda Lemos is past her glory days, and it’s hard to see a 38-year-old coming off a loss derailing Gillian Robertson despite some glaring deficiencies in her striking game.
The main reason Robertson is favored to win this fight is that she excels at getting her opponents to the mat and forcing them to endure her submission attempts. She’s landing an average of 2.74 takedowns per fight and has scored at least one takedown in each of her last 10 fights.
The striking isn’t very good, but the power is there, so her offense comes down to grind or bust. In her last four fights, she’s scored two knockouts, including her last win over Marina Rodriguez that happened last May, so there will be some rust she may need to shake off.
Lemos hasn’t quite turned it around after getting battered by Zhang Weili at UFC 292, trading a win for a loss over her last four fights, and is having a hard time staying on her feet.
It’s hard to gauge how much she has left, however, because one of her wins came against current champion Mackenzie Dern.
The heavy-handed striker can land stinging, straight shots, contributing to a 53% knockout rate in her MMA career. The troublesome factor for Lemos is that she’s been taken down 12 times over the last five fights and has two submission losses on her record.
While Lemos is the far better striker, she’s slowing down and can’t seem to summon enough activity or defend takedowns well enough to keep Robertson away. Robertson has never won a fight where she has landed fewer than or equal to the same strikes as her opponent, but the aging Lemos won’t expose that gap in her skill set.
Best bet analysis
I’m expecting Robertson to close the gap early to not give Lemos the range she needs to operate. It may not need multiple trips to the mat to get the job done for Robertson, but considering Lemos’ lacking ground defense, my best bet is that Robertson wins this fight by submission.
Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Lemos | Robertson |
| To win outright | +205 | -270 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +975 | +700 |
| To win by decision | +375 | +145 |
| To win by submission | +1650 | +240 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 -200 | Under 2.5 +150 |
Odds as of 3-14.
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Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson tale of the tape
| Lemos | Robertson | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| Strawweight | Weight Class | Strawweight |
| 65 inches | Reach | 63 inches |
| 15-5-1 | Record | 16-8 |
| 8 | Wins by KO | 3 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 9 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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