Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, May 20.
It's that time of the year when the promotion struggles to put together exciting bouts for Fight Night events, and this is the only matchup on Saturday featuring ranked fighters. UFC odds opened with Dern as a -185 favorite and have since shortened to -170 with Hill available anywhere from +144 to +160.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill picks and predictions for May 20 from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Mackenzie Dern vs Angela Hill fight odds
Mackenzie Dern vs Angela Hill method of victory odds
|Method of Victory||Mackenzie Dern||Angela Hill|
|To win by KO/TKO||+1,200||+900|
|To win by Points||+250||+200|
|To win by Submission||+165||+3,500|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on May 20, 2023.
Mackenzie Dern vs Angela Hill picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mackenzie Dern vs Angela Hill betting preview
Mackenzie Dern is the No. 8-ranked women's strawweight contender and is fresh off a majority decision loss to Yan Xiaonan last October. That was the second loss in Dern's last three fights and both of those defeats came in five-round main events.
The 30-year-old has compiled a 7-3 record inside the octagon with four of those victories coming by way of submission.
Dern has a solid chin and has improved her striking but still has holes in her standup. However, she's elite on the mat and as a former ADCC and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion, is one of the best grapplers in the division.
Angela Hill is coming off back-to-back decision wins against Lupita Godinez and Emily Ducotte (who happen to be fighting against each other on the main card).
Despite being 38 years old, Hill is an active fighter that has been in 19 UFC bouts since the start of 2017. Hill has gone 9-10 during that span and while she's often on the periphery of the strawweight rankings (currently at No. 14) she has typically come up short against other ranked foes.
Hill has polished technical kickboxing ability and is able to fight at range with her footwork while also being dangerous in the clinch. While she doesn't have much knockout power, she throws with plenty of volume.
Mackenzie Dern vs Angela Hill tale of the tape
|Mackenzie Dern||Angela Hill|
|115 lbs||Weight||115 lbs|
|63 inches||Reach||64 inches|
|12-3 (0 KO)||Record||15-12 (5 KO)|
Mackenzie Dern vs Angela Hill UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Dern
This matchup is a classic clash of opposing styles, with Hill's advanced striking facing off against Dern's elite grappling.
Although Dern has a top-notch ground game, her offensive wrestling needs work and she owns a takedown accuracy of just 11%. Although Hill is weak on the mat, she has an impressive 77% takedown defense and if she can keep this fight standing, her volume gives her a decent chance of pulling off the upset.
That said, with this fight scheduled for five rounds and Hill lacking the power to get a knockout, Dern will be able to get the takedown and win by stoppage at some point over 25 minutes.
Hill might be coming off back-to-back wins, but they came against unranked fighters and she had lost five of her previous six bouts. Expect her to lose again on Saturday.
Keep in mind that Dern opened at the same -185 moneyline price against Yan, who is similar but better than Hill.
Prediction: Mackenzie Dern moneyline (-170 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Dern by submission
When it comes to physical and athletic ability, the younger Dern has the edge. Hill has struggled in grappling exchanges in the past and can give up her back. That could be very problematic against somebody like Dern, who is stronger and faster.
Although Dern lost to Yan, she was still able to get two takedowns (albeit on 11 attempts) which she turned into more than nine minutes of control time and a pair of submission attempts.
If she can get this fight to the ground, it's game over. With seven of Dern's last 11 wins coming by way of submission, back her to win by that method again.
Pick: Mackenzie Dern by submission (+175 at DraftKings)