Vicente Luque is facing late substitute Joel Alvarez — who is climbing to welterweight in a fight that should deliver the goods — in the featured undercard attraction of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night from Rio de Janeiro.
My Luque vs. Alvarez predictions and UFC picks for this October 11 bout don't expect this fight to go very long.
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Luque vs Alvarez prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Alvarez ML (-700 at BET99)
- My best bet: Alvarez to win in Round 1 (+190 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Things haven’t been the same for Vicente Luque since suffering a brain bleed at the hands of Geoff Neal, and while he’s been cleared to compete for some time now, something is obviously missing as the once prodigious welterweight with title aspirations is a journeyman lost in the soup.
Joel Alvarez is a hard-hitting lightweight who stepped in on short notice when Santiago Ponzinibbio dropped out, ultimately resulting in a tougher opponent for the vulnerable Luque.
The only person Alvarez has lost to at lightweight in the last five years was Arman Tsarukyan, and he’s a vicious finisher with all seven of his UFC wins coming inside the distance.
A powerful striker with good scrambles and fighting at a high pace, Alvarez doesn’t smother his offense and carries his power late into fights, but is incredibly dangerous early on.
He’s been on the shelf since a December knockout win over Drakkar Klose and is taking this fight to stay active. It will be interesting to see if the power carries over to welterweight, and considering Luque’s recent form, it seems likely it will.
While I’m aware Luque was cleared to compete following his injury, I maintain it wasn’t a good idea, and his recent run since the Neal fight shows he’s lost a few steps.
His first-round submission loss to Kevin Holland last June demonstrated how far he’s slipped. If he can’t smother Alvarez early or get the fight to the mat, this could end up as another early finish.
He can still beat mid-tier fighters like Themba Gorimbo or aging veterans like Rafael Dos Anjos, and he can be a problem for anyone with poor ground defense and a conservative striking output.
Alvarez is a certified bruiser at lightweight, and he’s going to look refreshed and ready to get back into action after his layoff. I don’t see an avenue for victory here with Luque, who will need to survive an explosive first round and hope to stay on his feet long enough to rope Alvarez into a bad scramble.
Best bet analysis
I see this fight playing out similarly to Luque’s loss to Joaquin Buckley, where Buckley blitzed him and pounded him out on the ground.
Alvarez won’t have Buckley’s size, but the power advantage and the speed will be more than what Luque can handle at this stage of his career.
Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Luque | Alvarez |
| To win outright | +400 | -600 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +900 | +175 |
| To win by decision | +675 | +475 |
| To win by submission | +1350 | +175 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 10-11.
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Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez tale of the tape
| Luque | Alvarez | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 32 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 75.5 inches | Reach | 77 inches |
| 23-11-1 | Record | 22-3 |
| 2 | Wins by KO | 5 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 17 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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