Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr. are looking for a path back to the top of the light heavyweight division, and they’ll have to go through one another in the main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night.
UFC odds have Rountree as the favorite at -130, while ex-champ Hill is a +110 underdog. Here are my Hill vs. Rountree Jr. predictions and free betting picks from Baku.
Hill vs Rountree prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Rountree Jr. moneyline (-125 at BET99)
- My best bet: Rountree Jr. by KO/TKO/DQ (+130 at BET99)
Fight analysis
It will take a miracle for this fight to reach the full five rounds. Two of the division’s most destructive light heavyweight strikers are unlikely to dance and potshot.
Jamahal Hill won the light heavyweight title in a brutal beating of Glover Teixeira in 2023, but that dream turned nightmarish after he ruptured his Achilles playing pick-up basketball, then suffered back-to-back knockout losses to Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka.
Khalil Rountree Jr. is also coming off a loss to Pereira, but had previously won five straight and delivered a solid performance in his lone title challenge.
On paper, Hill is the more polished technician and a former world champion for a reason. He’s a punishing boxer who works behind a stiff jab and hard leg kicks before closing the show with his sharp southpaw left hand.
However, it’s painfully obvious that his mobility has been compromised since the Achilles injury. He looks flat-footed and stiff compared to the agile footwork that made him dangerous against Teixeira.
One of Hill’s best weapons was his speed and movement, which enhanced his power and allowed him to avoid big shots. Now, he’s stuck slugging it out with a chin that isn’t equipped to last against big hitters.
Rountree’s savage power is amplified by his raw, aggressive style. He throws every strike with bad intentions, and a clean shot from him can change the fight instantly.
His punishing kicks can target Hill’s compromised leg and further limit what little movement he has left. If this turns into a phone-booth fight, Rountree has the edge. He trusts his chin and welcomes brawls, which allows him to land the more impactful shots inside.
Hill no longer shows the evasiveness or durability you’d want against a mauler like Rountree. He’s been knocked out twice in a row by strikers who met him head-on and overwhelmed him. While Rountree is no technical master, his brutal brawling style is tailor-made to crack Hill’s declining defense.
Rountree is the pick.
Best bet analysis
Hill hasn’t shown much since his injury, and his slowed movement and questionable chin won’t do well against Rountree’s savage kicks and looping power shots. Expect Rountree to take the fight to Hill, who just won’t have enough time to get out of the way, and put him down with a series of vicious strikes.
Rountree by KO/TKO/DQ is my best bet.
Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Hill | Rountree |
| To win outright | +105 | -125 |
| To win by KO/TKO/DQ | +265 | +130 |
| To win by decision or technical decision | +325 | +575 |
| To win by submission | +2100 | +2250 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 6-18.
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Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. tale of the tape
| Hill | Rountree | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 35 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| Light heavyweight | Weight Class | Light heavyweight |
| 79 inches | Reach | 76.5 inches |
| 12-3-1 | Record | 13-6-1 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 9 |
| 0 | Wins by submission | 0 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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