The hard-swinging Billy Ray Goff makes his return to the octagon against grappling specialist Ramiz Brahimaj in our featured undercard attraction of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night. Goff gets a last-minute opponent swap and will have to contend against Brahimaj and his formidable submission skills.
UFC odds favor Goff at -350, and Brahimaj is a +255 underdog. Here are my best Goff vs. Brahimaj predictions and free betting picks from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Goff vs Brahimaj prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Goff moneyline (-425 at BET99)
- My best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-160 at BET99)
Fight analysis
There may not be much we can expect long-term from Billy Ray Goff, but he’s almost guaranteed to be a mainstay on Fight Night and preliminary cards because he turns every bout into chaos. That is, of course, assuming he can string together some wins.
Ramiz Brahimaj provides far more adversity than his originally scheduled opponent, Seok Hyun Ko, and could exploit the chaos Goff thrives in.
Goff returns to the octagon after a Fight of the Night performance against Trey Waters last May, a bout that showcased his extreme toughness and his lack of defense.
He charges forward, throws in bunches, and is always hunting the finish. Goff averages an incredible 8.56 significant strikes landed per minute, with seven of his nine wins by knockout, making it clear that volume and pressure are his weapons of choice.
Brahimaj, by contrast, is a submission specialist with suffocating grappling. Though known for his jiu-jitsu, he earned his last win by knockout over Mickey Gall six months ago.
Still, Brahimaj’s offense is heavily dependent on getting the fight to the mat. He’s dangerous in his element, with all of his wins coming by submission, but he’s often too passive on the feet and lacks the setup needed to get inside cleanly.
He once won a fight without landing a single strike, and he also suffered a gruesome TKO loss to Max Griffin, who literally boxed his ear off with clean punches in 2020.
If Brahimaj can get Goff down, he’s live to pull off a submission. Goff’s chaos and relentless pressure make it difficult to time takedowns, and Brahimaj hasn’t shown the durability or striking composure to survive the early onslaught long enough to turn the fight into a grappling match.
The pick is Goff to start fast, overwhelm Brahimaj with pressure, and score a finish.
Best bet analysis
Brahimaj tends to be overly conservative with his striking, and that won’t get him far against a high-pressure opponent like Goff. Expect the takedown-minded Brahimaj to rely heavily on clinching and angling for takedowns to slow the fight down, but each failed attempt will leave him open to Goff’s punishing body shots and aggressive combinations.
Goff is a bruiser who won’t set traps or aim to land big counters, so he might have to force the pace on Brahimaj and wear him down. My best bet is the fight going Over 1.5 rounds.
Billy Ray Goff vs Ramiz Brahimaj odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Goff | Brahimaj |
| To win outright | -425 | +305 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +140 | +1100 |
| To win by decision | +200 | +1100 |
| To win by submission | +700 | +550 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 5-31.
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Billy Ray Goff vs Ramiz Brahimaj tale of the tape
| Goff | Brahimaj | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Age | 32 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 72 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 9-3 | Record | 11-5 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 1 |
| 0 | Wins by submission | 10 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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