Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon Predictions, Picks & Odds

Noche UFC features an intriguing lightweight matchup between Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon.

These two veterans are hoping a win in front of a major crowd will boost their fortunes in the changing division, though “Flash” Gordon might be fighting on another level compared to Garcia.

UFC odds currently have Gordon as the -250 favorite, while Garcia is a +190 underdog. 

Here are my free Noche UFC: Garcia vs. Gordon predictions for Saturday, September 13. 

Garcia vs Gordon prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Gordon moneyline (-250 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-325 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Jared Gordon is 2-2 with one no-contest over his last five bouts, but there is a good argument that he should be 4-0-1.

Gordon was on the wrong end of bad decisions when he fought Paddy Pimblett and Nasrat Haqparast, and if he did get the decision, there’d be no way he’d be facing someone like Rafa Garcia.

Garcia isn’t known for his consistency, and with Gordon firing on all cylinders when it comes to his recent performances, this is going to be a tough fight for the Mexican, even with the crowd behind him.

Gordon is a competent boxer who works with volume and intensity, throwing plenty of strikes to set up his takedowns, where he can be very successful as well. He’s coming off a stoppage win over Thiago Moises last May and is a dark horse due to his experience and his sharp striking, though he struggles in defending takedowns and will need to be ready for Garcia’s wrestling.

There’s more power in Garcia’s striking at the cost of accuracy and defense, where he lands 4.01 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.47 in return. His strengths lie in his wrestling, where he averages 3.21 takedowns per fight and can rely on them when his striking isn’t effective. 

Garcia looks tentative at times when it comes to striking, and he can fall into a big deficit should he be unable to take the fight to the mat. I’m favoring Gordon’s activity over Garcia’s potential gains on the ground, and that makes him my pick.

Best bet analysis
Gordon’s flurries could see him take a desperate takedown or clinch against the cage, and Garcia is going to do his best to limit his opponent's mobility. 

My best bet is that these two are sturdy enough to make the fight survive 2.5 rounds.

Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon odds

Method of Victory	Garcia	Gordon
To win outright	+180	-230
To win by KO/TKO	+550	+600
To win by decision	+380	-130
To win by submission	+2100	+1100
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 9-13.

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Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon tale of the tape

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