Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan Predictions, Picks & Odds

Jimmy Crute and Ivan Erslan are fighting for relevancy in the light heavyweight division as these two face off at UFC Fight Night: Perth in hopes of proving that rough waters are behind them, but only one will come out on top.

Crute is the -225 favorite while Erslan is a +175 underdog in UFC odds. Here are my free UFC Fight Night: Crute vs. Erslan picks and predictions on Saturday, September 27.

Crute vs Erslan prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Crute moneyline (-225 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Crute by submission (+240 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Not much has gone right for Jimmy Crute. He’s only managed one win in the last five years, and the once-promising talent has fallen short enough times that it’s fair to question his future as a contender at light heavyweight. Still, his ground game and a supportive home crowd may give him the edge against the brutish Ivan Erslan, who enters on a two-fight skid.

Crute needs to stay confident and composed, as adversity has often unraveled him in the past. When he’s in control, however, he can be very effective. All of his UFC wins have come by finish, mostly submissions, and he remains a dual threat, landing 4.17 significant strikes per minute while averaging 4.2 takedowns and 1.9 submission attempts. He finally broke through last July with his first win since 2020, submitting Marcin Prachnio after landing three takedowns.

Erslan fights like a power striker but has less power than his style suggests. He loads up on every shot, leaving himself wide open to be countered or taken down. Winless through two UFC bouts, he’s been taken down six times, and while he’s managed to survive to the final horn, he’s absorbed plenty of damage along the way.

His most recent outing saw him thoroughly outclassed by Navajo Stirling, who doubled his strike total, knocked him down, and added three takedowns.

Erslan isn’t busy enough on his feet to trouble Crute and lacks the grappling to defend the takedowns that will inevitably come.

Best bet analysis
Erslan’s low output and porous grappling defense set Crute up for a much-needed showcase. Expect Crute to pressure early, mixing in strikes before shooting relentlessly.

Eventually, Erslan will give up his back in a scramble, and Crute should pounce for the submission finish. 

Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan odds

Method of Victory	Crute	Erslan
To win outright	-225	+175
To win by KO/TKO	+245	+290
To win by decision	+390	+790
To win by submission	+245	+2700
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 9-27.

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Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan tale of the tape

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