Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales Predictions, Picks & Odds

Gilbert Burns faces off against Michael Morales in the headline event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight.

Although Burns is a former welterweight title challenger, he is in the twilight of his career and is a +525 underdog against a rising star in Morales. 

Morales enters as a massive -850 favorite in the UFC odds, and I expect him to get the job done inside the distance.

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales predictions for Saturday, May 17.

Burns vs Morales prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Morales moneyline (-850 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Under 3.5 rounds (-130 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Gilbert Burns has never been shy about putting his ranking on the line against surging younger fighters, which has led to plenty of defeats in recent years. He's now on a three-fight skid after lopsided defeats against former champ Belal Muhammad, current champ Jack Della Maddalena, and No. 2 contender Sean Brady.

Meanwhile, Michael Morales is 17-0 in his career while reeling off six straight wins inside the octagon. In his last bout, he faced another aging gatekeeper in Neil Magny and knocked him out in the first round to earn a Performance of the Night bonus.

Burns' resume is stuffed with elite competition, but he's looked vulnerable lately and is over the hill at almost 39 years old. He's an elite grappler but doesn't have the takedowns to implement that gameplan against somebody like Morales, who is extremely strong and boasts good defensive wrestling.

The veteran's striking has always been basic and relies on throwing hooks in the pocket. Burns' combinations have looked sloppy in recent bouts, and he won't have success on his feet against Morales, who has an eight-inch reach advantage and is significantly faster with more power.

Morales still needs to refine his game, but his physical attributes will be enough to get him past Burns. That said, at -850, the odds are too lopsided to play the moneyline, so consider another betting angle.

Best bet analysis
Three of Morales' last five victories have come inside of three rounds. He wasn't able to finish Jake Matthews or Max Griffin in recent bouts, but Burns is more hittable and has more durability concerns than either of those fighters.

Burns has taken a ton of punishment in his career, which makes his chin extremely suspect at nearly 39 years old. During his recent losing streak, he absorbed 130+ significant strikes from both Brady and Muhammad — while getting knocked out in brutal fashion by Della Maddalena.

The Brazilian was also in a three-round war with Khamzat Chimaev in 2022, and he was starched by Kamaru Usman when he challenged for the belt in 2021. I don't see Burns surviving past the midway point of Round 4.

Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales odds

Method of Victory	Burns	Morales
To win outright	+525	-850
To win by KO/TKO	+2100	-155
To win by decision	+1350	+195
To win by submission	+1600	+1400
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 5-17.

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Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales tale of the tape

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