Lightweight carnage is on deck when Rafael Fiziev takes on Mauricio Ruffy in one of our featured betting attractions on the UFC 325 undercard.
Ruffy is the favorite at -130 in the latest UFC odds, but I'm bullish on Fiziev as a +105 underdog.
Find out more in my UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy predictions for January 31 in Sydney, Australia.
Fiziev vs Ruffy prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Fiziev moneyline (-130 at BET99)
- My best bet: Fiziev moneyline (-130 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Rafael Fiziev is a technical Muay Thai marvel who delivers sharp strikers, has excellent movement and conditioning, and looks to have added some wrestling to his toolbox over his last few fights.
Fiziev is coming off a big win over Ignacio Bahamondes, where he outlanded Bahamondes in strikes and scored four takedowns. That broke a three-fight skid where he had a pair of close losses to Justin Gaethje and an injury TKO to Mateusz Gamrot.
Mauricio Ruffy has looked all pomp and flash against the level of competition he’s expected to dominate, but he unraveled in a big way once the opposition stepped up. Fiziev, on the other hand, has beaten seasoned veterans and pushed the current interim champion in two hard-fought battles, all while putting his fight IQ on display with the improved grappling we’ve seen from him lately.
This matchup could get chaotic, which would normally favor Ruffy, but Fiziev’s sharper striking and added wrestling tilt the fight in his direction. Much like the Bahamondes bout — where Fiziev faced a fighter with similar intangibles — he systematically broke his opponent down, repeatedly taking the fight to the mat and giving no quarter.
I’m backing Fiziev to deliver a complete performance and come away with the win.
Best bet analysis
Ruffy is dangerous early and always lives for a finish, but Fiziev’s durability, experience, and added wrestling create multiple paths to victory.
Fiziev’s technical striking should be enough to slow Ruffy down, while the threat of level changes gives him the edge he needs to win.
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Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Fiziev | Ruffy |
| To win outright | -130 | +100 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +475 | +285 |
| To win by decision | +190 | +210 |
| To win by submission | +2250 | +1900 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 1-31.
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Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy tale of the tape
| Fiziev | Ruffy | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 155 lbs | Weight Class | 155 lbs |
| 71 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 13-4 | Record | 12-2 |
| 8 | Wins by KO | 11 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 0 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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