UFC 320 Abus Magomedov vs Joe Pyfer Predictions, Picks & Odds

We’re back with a fully loaded fight card at UFC 320, which opens with a middleweight clash between Abus Magomedov and Joe Pyfer.

Both men will put their win streaks on the line in the UFC odds, but I’ll break down why the favorite will get the job done in my Magomedov vs. Pyfer predictions for Saturday, October 4.

Magomedov vs Pyfer prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Pyfer moneyline (-260 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Pyfer by KO or decision (-155 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Joe Pyfer comes into UFC 320 on the heels of the biggest win of his career after earning a dominant unanimous decision over Kelvin Gastelum back at UFC 316.

He’ll be a solid -260 favorite against Abus Magomedov on Saturday night as he looks to earn his third straight victory. Magomedov hits back at +200 and carries a three-fight win streak of his own after cruising to a unanimous decision over Michel Pereira in April.

The fighters are pretty well-matched on paper — both men stand at 6-foot-2, primarily rely on their heavy hands, and have a tendency to gas out as fights drag on. However, while Pyfer showed some signs of slowing down against Gastelum, he’s never looked as gassed as Magomedov did in his KO loss to Sean Strickland.

Magomedov dominated the first five minutes of that bout, but basically gave up in the second round, as Strickland used him as a punching bag before ending the fight with some ground and pound. That trend carried through to Magomedov’s decision loss against Caio Borralho a few months later, as the Brazilian had his way, especially in the third round.

Pyfer certainly has some holes in his game and can be guilty of trying to force the big knockout blow, but he should have the superior conditioning, and he will certainly have the power advantage over Magomedov.

I expect the Russian to wilt again once he feels Pyfer’s power.

Best bet analysis
Joe Pyfer has rightfully earned a reputation as a knockout artist, with nine of his 14 pro wins coming by way of KO. Since his first win on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2022, the New Jersey native is 7-1, with five of those victories ending in a knockout.

Pyfer’s most likely path to victory will be another knockout, but I wouldn’t rule out this one going to a decision. He nearly finished Gastelum early on in his last bout with two knockdowns in the first round, but his output waned as the fight went on.

There are also questions about Pyfer's fight IQ — will he continue to load up and try to force the big right-hand knockout, or can he learn to vary his attacks?

If Pyfer can’t put Magomedov away in the first half of the fight, I think we’ll see both men slow down significantly and leave it up to the judges.

Abus Magomedov vs Joe Pyfer odds

Method of Victory	Magomedov	Pyfer
To win outright	+200	-260
To win by KO/TKO	+730	+150
To win by decision	+510	+280
To win by submission	+540	+540
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 10-4.

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Abus Magomedov vs Joe Pyfer tale of the tape

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