UFC 317 Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France Predictions, Picks & Odds

Alexandre Pantoja put his flyweight championship on the line against Kai Kara-France at UFC 317 this Saturday.

This will be Pantoja's fourth title defense, and UFC odds have him listed as a -250 favorite as he looks to become the G.O.A.T. at 125 pounds. That said, my Pantoja vs. Kara-France predictions are leaning towards the underdog with Kara-France coming back at +190.

See why with my best free betting picks for June 28 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Pantoja vs Kara-France prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Kara-France moneyline (+185 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Kara-France by KO/TKO or decision (+210 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Alexandre Pantoja is on a seven-fight winning streak and has successfully defended his belt three times. He's essentially cleaned out the flyweight division, having already defeated most of the top contenders, some of whom he has beaten multiple times.

That said, he isn't always dominant against top competition. Sure, he's coming off a lopsided win, but Kai Asakura had no business getting a title shot in his UFC debut. Before submitting Asakura, Pantoja had competitive bouts against Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval, and Steve Erceg. 

Kai Kara-France is fresh off a victory against Erceg, where he knocked him out in the first round as a +155 underdog. Kara-France actually lost an exhibition match against Pantoja on TUF way back in 2016, but has made significant improvements since. 

KKF has an impressive 88% takedown defense along with a great get-up game and good submission defense. That should neutralize Pantoja's biggest advantage; his relentless grappling, top control, and transitions. 

Kara-France should be able to keep this fight standing up enough for his striking to shine. Pantoja has good kick-boxing but he isn't quite on Kara-France's level, and the champ has a tendency to be reckless in exchanges and rely on his chin.

That's bad news against Kara-France, who has the nickname "Don't Blink" due to his explosive movement and death-touch power. Kara-France's defensive wrestling, superior striking, and younger age make him the value play as an underdog here. 

Best bet analysis

Male fighters who are at least 35 years old are 4-27 in title fights in the welterweight division and below in UFC history. Three of those victories came at welterweight, and one of them was a 35-year-old Tyron Woodley beating a 40-year-old Demian Maia.

Speed and reflexes are paramount in the smaller weight classes and while Pantoja hasn't shown major signs of decline, age is bound to catch up to him eventually. Especially with the wear-and-tear on his body due to fighting professionally since 2007.

Betting on the younger fighter in these spots has been a highly profitable play long term. It's tough to turn down Kara-France at plus money here. Given that he doesn't have a single submission win in the UFC and has virtually no chance of subbing Pantoja, you can get even an even better payout by backing him to win by KO/TKO or decision.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France odds

Method of Victory	Pantoja	Kara-France
To win outright	-225	+185
To win by KO/TKO	+525	+510
To win by decision	+205	+425
To win by submission	+230	+2500
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 6-28.

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Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France tale of the tape

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