UFC 315 Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena Predictions, Picks & Odds

Belal Muhammad puts his welterweight title on the line against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 tonight. 

UFC odds have the champion Muhammad as a -200 favorite, with the challenger Della Maddalena coming back at +175. 

Here are my best free UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena predictions for Saturday, May 10, from the Bell Centre in Montreal.

Muhammad vs Della Maddalena prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Muhammad moneyline (-200 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Muhammad by decision (-120 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Belal Muhammad might have a boring personality and doesn't put on exciting fights or get many finishes, but he's on a 10-fight winning streak and is the current welterweight champ for good reason. 

Muhammad is coming off the biggest win of his career, beating Leon Edwards as a +205 underdog to claim the title. He landed nine of 13 takedowns and controlled Edwards for over 12 minutes on the mat. He also outstruck Edwards 62-35 at distance, displaying his vastly improved kickboxing. 

Meanwhile, Jack Della Maddalena has won 17 fights in a row and is 7-0 in the UFC. That said, JDM doesn't have anywhere near as many quality wins, and he hasn't looked great against solid competition over his last three fights.

He picked up split-decision wins against unranked Basil Hafez and Kevin Holland, before beating a 37-year-old Gilbert Burns in his last bout. Although he knocked out Burns, it's worth noting he was down on the cards before finding the KO in the third round. 

Burns took Della Maddalena down seven times, while Hafez landed three takedowns with almost seven minutes of control time. That's not a good sign against the wrestling-heavy Muhammed, who has five or more takedowns in three of his last five fights. 

The two bouts during that span where he didn't shoot for a single takedown came against grappling specialists in Burns and Sean Brady, but he stuffed their takedowns and picked them apart in the stand-up. Muhammad's pressure, wrestling, and volume will be too much for JDM.

Best bet analysis

Even in dominant grappling positions, Muhammad rarely hunts for submissions, and while he's improved his standup, he lacks power in his hands. In 19 UFC Fights, Muhammad has zero knockdowns with just a single sub.

That said, Muhammad has excellent fight IQ and does a great job of game-planning for his opponents. Della Maddalena's biggest edge will be his boxing, so Muhammad will likely rely on a wrestling-heavy approach while kicking at range. 

That will drain time off the clock and allow Muhammad to drag this fight into deep waters where his five-round experience will shine. With seven of his last eight victories coming by decision, bet on Muhammad to win by points again. 

Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena odds

Method of Victory	Muhammad	Della Maddalena
To win outright	-190	+160
To win by KO/TKO	+875	+300
To win by decision	+100	+600
To win by submission	+675	+1800
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 5-10.

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Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena tale of the tape

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