Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill is scheduled for three rounds in the flyweight division as a featured attraction on the UFC 286 undercard, which takes place tonight at the O2 Arena in London.
O’Neill is coming off retiring a crafty veteran as she blazes her way towards elite contention, and the capable Maia hopes to stunt her progress.
UFC odds favor O’Neill at -165, while Maia comes in as a +140 underdog.
Here are our picks and predictions for Maia vs. O’Neill at UFC 286 in London.
Jennifer Maia vs Casey O'Neill fight odds
Jennifer Maia vs Casey O'Neill method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Jennifer Maia | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1500 | +600 |
| To win by Points | +210 | +125 |
| To win by Submission | +1200 | +850 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on March 16, 2023.
Jennifer Maia vs Casey O'Neill picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Jennifer Maia vs Casey O'Neill betting preview
This fight got an upgrade from the preliminaries, and its inclusion on the main card is to the event’s benefit.
There have been better days for Jennifer Maia. The former Invicta FC champion is losing her form, having gone 5-5 since 2018. A lack of consistency and poor showings against strikers have left her reeling, and now the 34-year-old veteran needs a big win to keep herself in the mix. Her win against Maryna Munoz last November was a step in the right direction, outpointing her inexperienced foe.
Throughout her career, Maia has shown to be very tough. She lands 3.98 significant strikes per minute at 37% accuracy, working behind a lot of volume and an iron chin to keep her upright. Much like the Munoz fight, Maia needs to rely on her experience and work rate to keep O’Neill at bay.
Casey O'Neill hopes to establish herself as a fighter to watch, and toppling an established veteran like Maia will further that notion.
The undefeated Scot has been on a tear since her UFC debut in 2021. Three of her last four fights have ended inside the distance, and she looked efficient and deadly in retiring Roxanne Modafferi in her last fight. With the flyweight division about to undergo a major shakeup following Alexa Grasso’s shocking win over Valentina Shevchenko, all O’Neill has to do to get on the radar for a major fight is to turn in another strong showing.
“King” can batter her opponents after paralyzing them with her grappling skills. She lands a stunning 8.65 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy, but her offense comes from her takedown game, as she has landed eight takedowns in her last four fights. As we mentioned, she can close the show if she gets an opening.
Jennifer Maia vs Casey O'Neill tale of the tape
| Jennifer Maia | Casey O'Neill | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 25 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 64 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 20-9-1 (4 KO) | Record | 9-0 (3 KO) |
Jennifer Maia vs Casey O'Neill UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: O’Neill
Toughness has taken Maia this far, but it won't get her past O’Neill. With a combination of her strong grappling and busy hands, O’Neill will have another veteran beaten up and added to her win column. While Maia can hang in there and look for a shot, she’s practically outgunned.
O’Neill can’t get careless. Those moments of over-eagerness can create an opportunity for Maia, who should put up more of a fight than Modafferi did. Though she won’t land over 200 strikes as she did there, it shouldn’t take long to establish that she’s the better fighter.
We aren’t passing up O’Neill at under -200 odds, especially when she has a solid chance of winning this one.
Prediction: O’Neill moneyline (-165 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: O’Neill by decision
For all the heat O’Neill put on Modafferi, she didn’t come close to stopping her. Maia should have more left in the tank, and isn’t quite ready to hang up her gloves. There might be moments where O’Neill slips up and allows Maia to get into the fight, but not to the point where she threatens to steal it.
Our best bet for the fight is that O’Neill works her way to another dominant decision win.
Pick: O’Neill by decision (+120 at DraftKings)
