Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo Predictions, Picks & Odds

Cory Sandhagen faces off against Deiveson Figueiredo in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight. 

Figueiredo is the No. 5-ranked bantamweight contender and is just one spot behind Sandhagen, but UFC odds have him installed as a massive +365 underdog, with The Sandman coming back at -525.

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo predictions for Saturday, May 3.

Sandhagen vs Figueiredo prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Sandhagen moneyline (-500 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Sandhagen by decision (-155 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Deiveson Figueiredo is a former UFC flyweight champion and has gone 3-1 since moving up to bantamweight in 2023. He picked up wins against Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, and Marlon Vera before losing a lopsided decision to Petr Yan last November. 

Meanwhile, Cory Sandhagen is also 3-1 in his last four fights, and he's also fresh off a decision loss after being defeated by Umar Nurmagomedov last August. 

Figueiredo was a huge flyweight with crazy power. However, his physical attributes and power don't stand out anywhere near as much at bantamweight. He's also 37 years old, and fighters in the lower weight classes tend to have a steep drop-off when their speed and durability decline.

Sandhagen is still in his prime at 33, and he's longer, faster, and has more weapons in his kickboxing arsenal. His only defeats in the UFC have come against guys at the top of the division, and Figuereido isn't quite on that level.

I like Sandhagen to win, but this line is too wide, so look elsewhere for betting value.

Best bet analysis
Figueiredo doesn't have as much finishing ability at 135, but he will be more durable now that he's not cutting to 125. Three of his four fights at bantamweight have gone the distance, with the only exception coming against glass jaw Cody Garbrandt.

Meanwhile, five of Sandhagen's last six fights have gone the distance, and the only outlier was a doctor's stoppage after four rounds. This bout is -240 to go the distance, and it seems highly probable that the result will come down to the judges. 

The biggest issue I had with Figueiredo's recent loss was his extremely low volume, with Yan boasting a 121-53 edge in significant strikes. Sandhagen has a much higher output than Figueiredo, and that, combined with his superior footwork, should lead to a victory by decision.

Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo odds

Method of Victory	Sandhagen	Figueiredo
To win outright	-525	+370
To win by KO/TKO	+365	+1350
To win by decision	-155	+850
To win by submission	+675	+1550
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 5-3.

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Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo tale of the tape

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