Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov is on the main card for UFC 285 betting on Saturday.
This should be a banger between a pair of Top-10 welterweights who rack up finishes, with the veteran Neal facing a rising star in Rakhmonov. This will be the toughest test of Rakhmonov's career, but oddsmakers think he'll pass with ease. UFC betting odds have Rakhmonov as a -550 favorite, and Neal coming back at +400.
Here are my best free Neal vs. Rakhmonov picks and predictions for this weekend's bout in Las Vegas.
Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov fight odds
Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Geoff Neal | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,000 | +195 |
| To win by Points | +1,000 | +310 |
| To win by Submission | +2,600 | +170 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on March 1, 2023.
Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov betting preview
Geoff "Handz of Steel" Neal is the No. 7-ranked welterweight contender. Neal began his UFC career with five straight impressive wins but was derailed by consecutive decision losses to Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny.
Since then, he has won back-to-back fights, most recently knocking out Vicente Luque in the third round last August to claim a Performance of the Night bonus.
Neal is a pressure fighter with explosive power in his hands and legs. Nine of his last 11 wins have come inside the distance.
The "Nomad" Shavkat Rakhmonov jumped up to No. 9 in the welterweight rankings after submitting Magny in the second round last June.
That was the second consecutive Performance of the Night bonus for Rakhmonov, as he sports a perfect 16-0 record in his MMA career.
A former M-1 Global welterweight champion, Rakhmonov is a Master of Sport in combat sambo. The 28-year-old is a very well-rounded fighter who does an excellent job of blending together his striking and grappling skills.
Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov tale of the tape
| Geoff Neal | Shavkat Rakhmonov | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 28 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 75 inches | Reach | 77 inches |
| 15-4 (9 KO) | Record | 16-0 (8 KO) |
Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Rakhmonov ML
Neal is a steady striker that does a good job of keeping fights standing up and can deal damage in inside exchanges. However, he can have a tough time when forced to strike on the outside and if this fight makes it to the mat, Rakhmonov will have a big edge in grappling.
While Neal has an impressive 85% takedown defense, it won't be as easy to shut down Rakhmonov's offensive wrestling. The Nomad uses less conventional throws and trips and often blends in those attempts with his striking so opponents can't sell out to defend takedowns.
Rakhmonov has multiple tools as a striker, can implement his grappling against the cage and on the mat, and also has the fight IQ to figure out what will work against his opponent. With such an incredibly well-rounded skillset and no weaknesses, he should be able to get the victory.
Prediction: Rakhmonov ML (-490 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Rakhmonov inside the distance (-150)
Rakhmonov boasts an incredible 100% finish rate, with eight wins by submission and another eight coming by KO/TKO.
Only one fight in his career has even gone past the second round. He's just as capable of knocking out opponents standing up, finishing with ground-and-pound, or sinking in tight submissions.
Neal is certainly durable and hasn't been finished in nine career UFC fights, but he did get knocked out by Kevin Holland on the Texas fight circuit, and was submitted early in his pro career.
Rakhmonov has shown the ability to win by stoppage against durable fighters like Carlston Harris and Michel Prazeres in recent bouts, and he should be able to do so again on Saturday.
Pick: Rakhmonov to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-150 at DraftKings)
