UFC 283 Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny Picks and Predictions: Burnes Bounces Back in Brazil

A welterweight bout on Saturday night features Gilbert Burns hoping to get back into the win column when he faces Neil Magny in his home country. Find out why Burns will come out on top in our UFC 283 betting picks.

Last Updated: Jan 21, 2023 7:41 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Gilbert Burns UFC
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny is on the main card for UFC 283 betting on Saturday, January 21.

This should be an intriguing bout between a pair of ranked welterweights, with Burns hoping to bounce back from a thrilling defeat and Magny trying to build momentum after a victory.

UFC odds have Burns installed as a massive -450 favorite, with Magny coming back at +350. 

Here are my best free Burns vs. Magny picks and predictions for January 21 at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny fight odds

Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny method of victory odds

Method of Victory Gilbert Burns Neil Magny
To win by KO/TKO +300 +1,400
To win by Points +190 +500
To win by Submission +230 +2,600
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on January 19, 2022.

Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny betting preview

Gilbert "Durinho" Burns is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev in April, where he ultimately earned a Fight of the Night bonus.

Burns is 7-2 in his last nine UFC fights, with victories against former welterweight contenders like Stephen Thompson, Tyron Woodley, and Demian Maia. His only defeats during that span came in highly-competitive bouts against Chimaev and former champ Kamaru Usman, where Burns was a significant underdog for both bouts.   

The No. 5 ranked welterweight contender fought at lightweight for much of his earlier career but has looked more explosive and durable since moving up to 170 pounds.

The 36-year-old began his MMA career as a world-class BJJ practitioner and grappling specialist but has vastly improved his striking under the tutelage of renowned kickboxing coach Henri Hooft.

The "Haitian Sensation" Neil Magny is No. 12 in the welterweight rankings and is fresh off a victory against Daniel Rodriguez last November. Magny relied on his grappling in that bout, taking down Rodriguez five times before submitting him in the third round.

That allowed Magny to bounce back from a lopsided submission defeat to Shavkat Rakhmonov earlier that year.

The 35-year-old is an active fighter that has compiled a 20-8 record in the octagon since making his promotional debut in 2013. Magny is long and rangy and combines high-volume striking with good clinch work and solid grappling ability.

Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny tale of the tape

Gilbert Burns   Neil Magny
36 Age 35
5-foot-10 Height 6-foot-3
170 lbs Weight 170 lbs
71 inches Reach 80 inches
20-5 (6 KO) Record 27-9 (7 KO)

Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Magny is the sort of fighter that the expression jack-of-all-trades master-of-none aptly describes. He is well-rounded and highly technical but can be beaten by specialists. We've seen him destroyed on the mat by Rakhmonov and Michael Chiesa in recent fights, and Burns has even better credentials as a grappler.

Magny has a path to victory if he can use his nine-inch reach advantage and stay on the outside, but despite his length, he tends to rely on clinch work. 

That's bad news against Burns, who throws with a lot of power on the inside and uses his pressure to close the gap and get his hands on foes.

Magny is coming off a victory where he earned a Performance of the Night bonus. However, he didn't actually look that sharp against Rodriguez — especially in the striking exchanges — and ate several power shots.

Burns looked much better against a significantly superior opponent in Chimaev, and he will take care of business against Magny, who is nowhere near the same threat in any area. 

Prediction: Burns moneyline (-450 at bet365)

Magny was submitted less than a year ago and has lost by way of submission five times in his career. Going up against an elite BJJ specialist in Durinho, it makes sense why Burns is installed at +190 to prevail in that style. 

That said, despite his high-end jiu-jitsu, Burns hasn't racked up many submission victories over the last few years. 

In Burns' previous victory, he controlled a kickboxing specialist in Thompson for more than seven minutes and didn't attempt a single submission. As a matter of fact, in his last 13 fights, he has just three submission attempts and one win by way of sub.

Since returning to welterweight in 2019, Burns has five wins, with four coming by decision. Back Burns to win by points again, which you can get at the same price as his submissions prop. 

Pick: Burns by decision (+190 at PointsBet)

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