We’re set for a volatile US Open on the women’s side in 2025 with several of the world’s best players falling out of form, but one player who’s trending in the right direction at the right time is Iga Swiatek.
After capturing her first Wimbledon trophy this season, can Swiatek take home a second US Open and continue to bulldoze the rest of the tour this summer?
Let’s break down the women’s draw below and tell you everything you need to know about the contenders – and the pretenders.
US Open Women's odds
| Player |  |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | +250 |
| Iga Swiatek | +300 |
| CoCo Gauff | +450 |
| Mirra Andreeva | +700 |
| Elena Rybakina | +1200 |
| Madison Keys | +1600 |
| Naomi Osaka | +1600 |
| Victoria Mboko | +2000 |
| Jessica Pegula | +2200 |
| Amanda Anisimova | +2500 |
Odds as of 8-22.
Wimbledon Women's favorites
Who's hot
Iga Swiatek (+250 at Caesars)
She may be ranked No. 2 in the World right now, but there’s no question that Iga Swiatek is once again the best player on tour.
She hit a slight speedbump after winning Wimbledon, bowing out in the third round of Montreal to Clara Tauson, but she rebounded by taking home the Cincinnati Open in commanding fashion, winning every set she played.
Dusting Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina in short order was nothing short of impressive, and where hardcourt game once again looks unbreakable – particularly after she finally found a way to master grass.
It would take a draw with a historically difficult opponent to keep the Pole from the podium.
Elena Rybakin (+1200 at Caesars)
It felt like we went an entire calendar year without even noticing that Rybakina was still playing, which is exactly what happens when you end a season as unceremoniously as she did in 2024.
Even though she’s only lifted one minor trophy in 2025 and failed to reach the quarterfinals of all three grand Slams, the World No. 10 still stands at an impressive 41-16 across all competitions this season and looks to be pushing for more.
Rybakina’s bit serve has been dialed in lately, and it took a storybook run from Victoria Mboko and an other-worldly showing from Swiatek to keep her out of the final both in Montreal and Cincinnati.
Along the way, she beat some big hitters like Aryna Sabalenka, and has firmly reinserted herself into the Grand Slam conversation.
Naomi Osaka (+2000 at Caesars)
Welcome back, Naomi Osaka. We don’t know how her body is going to hold up over the course of the next two weeks, but one thing we do know is that her game is nearly as dangerous as it was five or six years ago.
Osaka looked to be heating up on the clay – a highly-unexpected surface for her to choose for a resurgence – only to see an injury derail her progress. That didn’t seem to slow her one bit, however, as
she took a trip to the final in Montreal with a long list of quality wins. She made it through five names there that she’ll surely see at least once in the next few weeks, and the question will then become one of whether or not she’s got it in her to topple one of the favorites here.
There’s certainly not too much value to be found in this price, but she’s back on the radar.
Who's not
Aryna Sabalenka (+275 at Caesars)
I’ve never felt more indifferent about Sabalenka entering a Grand Slam. She lost her marbles, for lack of a better term, in the semifinals of Wimbledon, and she followed that up by skating by on thin ice to the quarterfinals of Cincinnati where she fell to Rybakina 6-1, 6-4.
No-showing that match, after doing little to build her form back up after Wimbledon, is certainly not what you want to see if you’re a supporter of Sabalenka, and while it would be foolish to write off a player who’s made the semis or better here in the last four years, we can at least set expectations a bit lower.
Coco Gauff (+950 at Caesars)
It’s not as if Gauff’s two most recent losses to Mboko and Paolini are bad in a vacuum – those players are certainly good – but it’s how she’s going about her business right now that’s concerning.
She overcame a weak forehand to reach great heights a couple of seasons ago, but now Gauff seems to be having an even tougher time finding her deserted serve.
Her team is out there trying to repair her motion in double time, and that certainly can’t be good for her psyche after winning just four matches since an 0-2 grass-court season.
Wimbledon Women's sleepers
Players to watch
Jasmine Paolini (+3000 at Caesars)
We could have inserted Paolini into the “Who’s Hot” section, but the oddsmakers just don’t want to give her a chance. Well, I will.
The Italian is still No. 8 in the World, and she’s still damn good, winning five straight matches in Cincinnati to reach the final against Swiatek, where she more than held her own.
Paolini doesn’t have the best history at the US Open, but that didn’t seem to matter last year when she made the fourth round. These courts can be ever so slightly high-bouncing, particularly at night, and perhaps that’s why we’ve seen several clay-forward players make a charge here.
Regardless, Paolini has proven herself on all surfaces, but an added edge never hurt anyone.
Barbora Krejcikova (+8000 at Caesars)
I don’t know why, but I can’t shake Barbora Krejcikova. She’s a tough player to see in Grand Slams, having won Wimbledon and Roland Garros in the last four years, and with the right draw she could wiggle her way into the semis.
She’s played just 16 matches this year due to injury, but we saw just the slightest little Krejcikova run a week ago in Cincinnati. She grinded out three straight three-set matches, two of which came against solid talent, before running out of steam against Paolini.
Fill up that gas tank, Barb, the journey is just beginning.
Diana Shnaider (+10000 at Caesars)
You know by now that I write about Diana Shnaider just about every time a Grand Slam rolls around, and this will be no different. The big-hitting lefty is a budding star on hardcourts, and even if she’s taken a slight step back this season she remains in the Top 25.
Shnaider is still just 21 with her best days ahead, and while her season has been very up and down it can all change with the right draw.
The Russian has incredible talent, packing one of the biggest serve-forehand combos on tour, and the US Open traditionally has excellent serving conditions despite recent efforts to slow down the courts.
I’m going to continue to buy shares while I can.
Long shots to avoid
Jessica Pegula (+4000 at Caesars)
It pains me to say it, but Jessica Pegula’s best days may be in the rearview. She’s now 31, and she’s continued to deal with injury over the past two seasons to the point where she’s never established any kind of palpable momentum.
In top of that, the recent results are rough. She lost to Magda Linette in the second round of Cincy, and then won just one match between the other two big hardcourt tournaments, bowing out in Canada to No. 238 in the world.
This is a home slam, and I’m as optimistic as they come about Pegula, but other than a nice week in Bad Homburg it’s been, well, a bad season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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