Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz will meet for the third time on tour in the Wimbledon Men's Final, and this one has all the makings of a classic. After the Spaniard took out Djokovic in a three-set epic in Madrid, the 23-time Grand Slam champion got his revenge at Roland Garros earlier this season in the French Open.
How will this one shake out? Does the World No. 1 have a path to capture his second career slam?
Let’s take a look at how to bet Sunday’s final in our Wimbledon picks and predictions.
Wimbledon Men's Final picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic odds and picks
| (1) Carlos Alcaraz | (2) Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| +150 | Moneyline | -180 |
| +2.5 (+105) | Game spread | -2.5 (-125) |
| Over 40.5 (-115) | Total games | Under 40.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on July 14, 2023.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic match prediction
The semifinal between these two at the French Open was an incredible one for about two sets before Alcaraz begun to feel the pressure and cramped up as a result. That effectively ended the match with Alcaraz conceding the final two sets 6-1, 6-1, and effectively handing Djokovic the title in Paris.
It’s hard to read much into that encounter. It was just as even as their Madrid semifinal a year ago until the weight of the moment hit Alcaraz, and the youngster could have easily won this match had he not experienced the cramps.
While he entered that one as the favorite, he’s the underdog here. I’m not sure the line is entirely correct, but I do think Djokovic pulls it out and captures his 24th slam.
The Serb hasn’t lost on Centre Court at Wimbledon in over 2,000 days, and has proven in the past 12 years that he’s at his very best on a grass court. Djokovic’s incredible depth makes him tough to play here, and even for someone as talented as Alcaraz, it’s going to be a massive adjustment.
Djokovic mixed up his return position incredibly well against Alcaraz in the two meetings, and it should be said here that the Spaniard’s greatest weakness lies in his serve. With the way Djokovic has been holding — only dropping serve three times all tournament which would be a new record for him — it should ultimately cost Alcaraz the match.
Prediction: Djokovic (-190 at BetMGM)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic best bet
The spread is the way to play this one for me. I think Alcaraz will dig his teeth into this match and showcase all the improvements he’s made in short order on grass. His baseline game is arguably even more dangerous with the speed of this surface, but I do think the drop shot that burned Djokovic so many times on clay won’t be quite as effective.
With that, as I said above, I think Djokovic wins this match. The Alcaraz serve will be put to its toughest test against Djokovic, and I expect it to ultimately fall one too many times.
It’s hard to say, though, that Alcaraz won’t at least win a set here and force a tiebreak in another. I’d look for some opportunities to take Djokovic live should Alcaraz grab the first set — something that’s very likely. If you’re betting before the match, however, I think taking the games is the best way to play it.
The way I see this, Alcaraz either mops the floor with Djokovic and hits through him, or the Serb eventually withstands the onslaught of winners and finds a way to out-scheme his opponent as he frequently does on this surface. He has done it in recent years with some of the biggest hitters on tour in Matteo Berrettini and Nick Kyrgios, only this time he doesn’t have to contest with such a large serve.
Back Alcaraz to keep this one close, but ultimately his inexperience on grass should be his undoing.
Best bet: Alcaraz +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
