Novak Djokovic vs Cameron Norrie Picks: First-Time Semifinalist Seeks to Dethrone King

Novak Djokovic is the heavy betting favorite to punch his ticket to the Wimbledon final by bouncing Cameron Norrie, but the ultimate question for bettors may be how many sets it takes. Norrie plays well on grass and we like the value on him taking one set.

Last Updated: Jul 7, 2022 8:47 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Novak Djokovic Wimbledon Tennis
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The contrasting tale of champion vs. contender plays out Friday on Centre Court, as Novak Djokovic and Cameron Norrie battle for a place in the Wimbledon final. 

Norrie has never played in a Grand Slam semifinal, amplifying the difficulty of an already foreboding task. However, the lion’s share of 10,000 Centre Court fans will irrepressibly and vociferously have his back, providing precisely the buoying lift he’ll require to pull off what would be an extraordinary upset. 

Our Wimbledon betting picks break down whether a Cinderella story will come to fruition or if Djokovic stands tall.

Djokovic vs Norrie odds

(1) Novak Djokovic (9) Cameron Norrie
-1,700 Moneyline +890
-7.5 (-122) Game spread +7.5 (-108)
Over 31.5 (-135) Total games Under 31.5 (-120)
Over 3.5 (+110) Total sets Under 3.5 (-180)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 6, 2022.

Djokovic vs Norrie picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Djokovic vs Norrie betting preview

World No. 3 Novak Djokovic has endured a topsy-turvy year. It all started with being deported from the land Down Under prior to having the chance to defend his Australian Open crown. Winning only one tour title and bowing out in the quarterfinals of the French Open, Djokovic’s season didn’t improve much after the deportation disappointment that kicked off 2022. 

What better place to turn his season around than the hallowed grounds of the All England Club, a place that has offered Djokovic sanctuary throughout his career. 

While still not quite firing at peak level, Djokovic has gained confidence and cohesiveness as the tournament progressed after dropping a set to 81st-ranked Soon-woo Kwon in his opening-round matchup. He found his timing and recaptured a bit of that unassuming swagger we’ve all come to expect. He breezed into the quarterfinal, only losing one set in the three matches following his first-round, four-set victory over Kwon. 

Djokovic reverted back to his rocky pre-Wimbledon form in the early stages of the quarterfinal against Jannik Sinner, gifting the Italian whippersnapper a two-set head start. The 20-time Grand Slam champion exited the court and returned revitalized, refreshed, and raring to go. 

Djokovic ripped through Sinner, winning three straight sets to capture his seventh two-set deficit comeback victory. Despite not playing at his unstoppable best, Djokovic has won 25 straight on the lawns of the All England Club and is two victories away from securing his fourth Wimbledon trophy on the bounce. 

Only world No. 12 Norrie stands in his way from yet another final appearance. 

Norrie has enjoyed an effective, opportunistic if not spectacular tournament thus far. Yet to face a competitor with a superior world ranking, Norrie has benefited from a palpably weakened draw. 

He will look to play aggressively with his powerful forehand in order to take the semifinal to Djokovic. Easier said than done. 

Norrie’s winners-to-unforced-errors ratio in five Wimbledon encounters thus far hasn’t been good enough to successfully deploy an attacking style against one of the best returners of all time. He hit more unforced errors than winners in both of his previous matches. 

For his aggressive strategy to pay dividends, Norrie must decisively flip that ratio on its head and hit substantially more winners than unforced errors. The crowd will also have to play its part for the 26-year-old to have any chance of pulling off what would be one of the biggest upsets in Wimbledon’s 100-year history. 

Djokovic vs Norrie prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the players and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this match.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this match or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

While Norrie has done exceptionally to make it to his first Wimbledon semifinal, he has been far from flawless, which is what he'll need to be in order to oust the world's greatest grass-court player. 

The closest he came to an unblemished outing was against Steve Johnson in his third-round straight-set victory. Johnson, however, is the 93rd-ranked player in the world and offered minimal resistance for Norrie, who won a staggering 67% of second-serve points.  

There were some stumbles even in that comprehensive 6-4, 6-1, 6-0 whitewash. He hit only three aces and had a subpar 29% break-point success rate.  

Djokovic usually saves his best tennis for the most pivotal matches and Wimbledon's semifinal certainly qualifies. His outlandish -1,700 moneyline odds to triumph are proof of that.  

Even if Djokovic doesn’t play his best, it’s hard to conceive of Norrie toppling the second-most winningest Wimbledon player. Unless you’re backing Djokovic with truck-loads of cash, the minuscule value on the moneyline isn’t worthwhile

Prediction: Novak Djokovic to win (-1,700 at FanDuel)

Djokovic to win in four sets offers excellent +280 value. Norrie, with a raucous crowd supporting his every shot, has the ability to nick a set. 

Djokovic has also shown uncharacteristic kinks in his normally impenetrable armor, providing more reason to commit to the aforementioned wager. Norrie is 12-4 on grass since the start of 2021, proving his adeptness on the surface made famous by Wimbledon.

Pick: Novak Djokovic to win in four sets (+280 at BetMGM)

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