We’ve arrived at the US Open semifinal stage on the men’s side, and in the first match of the day on Friday, we’ll see a rising young American challenge 23-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic.
Can the 20-year-old pull the monumental upset, or will it be business as usual for Djokovic?
Let’s take a look at the US Open odds and how the match should shake out.
US Open Men's Semifinals picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Ben Shelton vs Novak Djokovic odds and picks
| (49) Ben Shelton | (2) Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| +900 | Moneyline | -1,600 |
| +7.5 (-110) | Game spread | -7.5 (-110) |
| Over 31.5 (-115) | Total games | Under 31.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of Sept. 7, 2023.
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Ben Shelton vs Novak Djokovic match prediction
I could probably write 2,000 words on this match. I think it’s one of, if not the most unique, semifinals that Djokovic has ever contested.
Across the net will stand a 20-year-old who only turned pro 13 months ago and had a losing record on tour this season following his quarterfinal run at the Australian Open. He’s blasted through two of the top three Americans rather dominantly this week to reach his first grand slam semifinal, reminiscent of Carlos Alcaraz’s sudden and breathtaking rise a couple of years ago.
The thing that makes this match unique is that young Ben Shelton has never watched Djokovic play a full match. He says he wasn’t a big tennis watcher growing up, even though his father is a former pro, and he has spoken about Djokovic as if he were just another opponent. He essentially said in his presser that it wasn’t a huge deal he hasn’t watched much of Djokovic, considering he has film available on every one of his opponents.
We will get to why Shelton has a chance in this match in a second, but let’s talk about why he ultimately won’t cross the finish line here. His mental fortitude is unlike that of any American who’s risen up the ranks in recent years, but he’s still found himself going too big on his forehand at times and making poor decisions on the court. He’s improved dramatically as a returner in recent weeks, but that and his two-handed backhand still have to be considered weaknesses.
Above all else, Shelton has played a ton of tennis over these two weeks between his singles run and his trip to the semifinals in the mixed doubles draw. He also said he was in significant pain in his win over Frances Tiafoe, something that he powered through.
Djokovic is the greatest returner the world has ever seen, and against the Shelton serve he should eventually figure out a way to read the bombs coming at him from the other side of the net, neutralize his power, and take his legs just as he has done to every rising youngster.
While Shelton will make some noise early in this match, I think Djokovic will eventually prevail here, grinding on the exciting Shelton.
Prediction: Djokovic (-1400 at BetMGM)
Ben Shelton vs Novak Djokovic best bet
Now, let’s talk about why Shelton can win this match, and in turn the best way to bet on him.
The 20-year-old is playing incredible tennis at the moment, proving his mental strength is superior to any American we’ve seen rise up the ranks to this point. As I noted above, the fact that he is not fearful of the 23-time Grand Slam champion on the other side of the net will be paramount in this match.
Djokovic has not played particularly convincing tennis at this tournament and has really relied on the intimidation factor to make it this far. His straight-set win over Taylor Fritz wasn’t without drama; he looked incredibly beatable on Tuesday and would have dropped at least one set if it weren’t for the carelessness of Fritz and his inability to execute.
We have seen Djokovic drop Grand Slam semifinal matches at to talented hitters, such as Dominic Thiem, and I don’t necessarily think he is unbeatable here. He’s also playing Shelton for the first time, and his unique play style coupled with the fact that he is a lefty is going to make it hard for Djokovic to solve the riddle of how to win this match.
I truly believe that, unlike many young players who have taken a lead over Djokovic in the past, Shelton has what it takes to successfully finish the job should he be positioned to win here. He is clearly destined to be a top-five player and US Open champion one day, so should he achieve those feats in the years to come it would not look like a big shock that he was able to knock off Djokovic in this match.
Djokovic will bait his opponents into going for big shots, but while most fail to land those low-percentage shots in the court Shelton is exceptional at pulling off low-percentage shots. I think with a live arm, and a fearless and arrogant attitude, he will at least take one of the first two sets here and make this a match.
Best bet: Shelton +2.5 Sets (+130 at BetMGM)
