So much is on the line when Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz meet in the final of the US Open, with both the Grand Slam and a No. 1 ranking on the line.
Alcaraz has had to battle to get here, winning three straight five-set matches, while Ruud has looked almost untouchable since the Rund of 16.
There is plenty of stories heading into this match, and as fans, we should be treated to something special when these two take the hard court.
Our US Open Men's final betting picks get to the bottom of who has the edge to win it all.
Ruud vs Alcaraz odds
|(5) Casper Ruud||(3) Carlos Alcaraz|
|+3.5 (+105)||Game spread||-3.5 (-135)|
|Over 40.5 (-105)||Total games||Under 40.5 (-125)|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on September 10, 2022.
Ruud vs Alcaraz picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Ruud vs Alcaraz betting preview
The winner of the Casper Ruud vs. Carlos Alcaraz US Open final on Sunday becomes a first-time Grand Slam champion and secures the title of world’s best player.
US Open tournament organizers couldn’t have drawn it up any better, as the world's No. 1 ranking is up for grabs, adding a little extra flair to an already electrifying proposition. The final pits Alcaraz — touted as a potential future GOAT — against Ruud, who has ruthlessly gone about his US Open business — albeit in a less publicized and theatrical way.
Ruud has, inarguably, enjoyed an easier path to the final. The current world No. 7 endured just one five-set match en route to the grandstand event, a third-round roller coaster against American Tommy Paul, which saw more swings than a perpetually moving pendulum.
Ruud overcame that test and has since steamrolled all comers, losing two sets from the Round of 16 onward. The 23-year-old faced only one player with a Top 15 ranking — Matteo Berrettini — whom he dispatched in the quarterfinal almost without breaking a sweat.
Alcaraz wasn’t so fortunate, as the teenage phenom played two Top 15 opponents (Marin Cilic and Jannik Sinner), along with Frances Tiafoe, who probably would have been in the Top 15 had it not been for Wimbledon being stripped of its ranking points.
Not only did Alcaraz play former US Open champion Cilic, world No. 13 Sinner, and in-form Tiafoe, but he was affronted with the daunting prospect of facing them all in five days. The 19-year-old ascended into rarified air, joining Andre Agassi and Stefan Edberg as just the third player to make the US Open final by winning three straight five-setters.
Ruud vs Alcaraz prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the players and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this match.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this match or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Alcaraz moneyline
The question of whether Alcaraz would be able to recover from physically grueling marathons was emphatically answered in Friday’s semifinal, dispatching Tiafoe on the back of consecutive five-set thrillers. Bewilderingly, Alcaraz appeared the fresher of the semifinalists, which should tell you all you need to know about the Spaniard’s ability to recover for Sunday’s final.
No player on tour covers the court like Alcaraz, who forces his opponents to make an extra shot almost every rally. He is lightning quick and backs up his formidable speed by pulling off miraculous, last-gasp winners like it’s as straightforward as holding a racket. Not only that, but he has a limitless supply of weapons and the mental fortitude required to manage high-pressure situations — a rare and invaluable asset for any athlete — especially someone of his impressionable age.
He also has a short memory, quickly wiping away momentary blips to recover instantly. Tiafoe found out firsthand just how fast Alcaraz bounces back. The American broke him three times and won some crucial points, particularly in the fourth set tiebreaker. But in a style befitting of a soon-to-be Grand Slam champion, Alcaraz bounced back faster than a squash ball being pinged against a wall.
Alcaraz looks to slam an exclamation mark on what has already been a breakout season. He has won four titles and is 44-9 in 2022. The Spaniard won both previous contests against Ruud, one on hardcourt at the ATP Masters in Miami earlier this season and one on clay in 2021.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz moneyline (-190 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Alcaraz in 4 sets
While Ruud is the undisputed underdog, he’ll look to make the most of a few advantages. First, Ruud is the fresher of the two, having played four and a half hours less since the Round of 16.
He also has the benefit of playing in his second Grand Slam final of the season after advancing to the French Open final, where he lost in straight sets to Rafael Nadal. That experience has already helped Ruud, who has conducted himself with maturity and poise beyond his years. He plays the big points with unerring composure and expertly picks his spots to capitalize on an opponent’s frailties.
Ruud also has the benefit of being the underdog, a written-off-afterthought that, despite his high ranking, was given no chance of getting this far. Those who counted him out will point to his inability to get the job done on hardcourt, on which he’s won just one of his nine titles.
The Norwegian is incredibly intelligent and calculating, an adaptable player who can beat anyone on his day. However, he hasn’t come across a Category-5 hurricane like Alcaraz. And that will lead to his downfall.
While he’ll probably fall short of his ultimate goal, Ruud has performed too well to be swept in Sunday’s final. Expect the level-headed Norwegian to win a set in what promises to be a pulsating final, providing a glimpse of what to expect on the men’s side of the tour for the foreseeable future.
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win in four sets (+300 at DraftKings)