Ons Jabeur vs Caroline Garcia Picks: Garcia's Serve Outlasts Tunisian

It wasn’t pretty by any stretch of the imagination, but Tunisian Ons Jabeur reached her first US Open semifinal with a straight-sets victory over Australian Ajla Tomljanovic. Jabeur benefitted from nine Tomljanovic double faults, and the Tunisian broke serve five times for an opportunity to play for a major title.   

France’s Caroline Garcia jumped out to a 4-0, first-set lead and never looked back, defeating American Coco Gauff in their quarterfinal matchup, 6-3, 6-4. Garcia succeeded on 79% percent of her first serves and converted three of her nine break point chances to reach her first US Open semifinal.

Garcia is the hottest player on tour but is 0-2 lifetime against Jabeur. Can the Frenchwoman notch her first career win over Jabeur? Find out in our US Open preview and predictions. 

Jabeur vs Garcia odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on September 7, 2022.

Jabeur vs Garcia picks

• Prediction: Garcia ML (-152)
• Best bet: Over 21.5 games (-112)

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Jabeur vs Garcia betting preview

This is going to be a fantastic tennis match between two women known for their hard work and professionalism... and they can also play the game of tennis at a very high level.

Jabeur is a weird combination of counter-puncher and big hitter. The Tunisian has a mediocre 67% service hold rate, with an above-average 34% service break rate.

Jabeur slices, dices, hits drop shots, and when least expected, will slap a forehand right past her opponent for a winner. Jabeur is an exceptional mover, fights for every ball, but has a career record of 10-18 against the Top 10 in the world.

Garcia made a splash early in her career, reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 4, and until this past summer has had far more success in doubles. 

Garcia and partner Kristina Mladenovic won the French Open doubles title this past spring, and that seemed to spark a resurgence. The French national has won three singles titles on three different surfaces since Paris, including a 13-match winning streak since August 15.

The French No. 17 is an aggressive returner with a big forehand and isn’t afraid to attack the net. Garcia won 11 of her 12 trips to the net against Gauff and, along with her high first-serve percentage, quickly dispatched the young American before a stunned Arthur Ashe Stadium crowd.

Jabeur vs Garcia prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the players and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this match.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this match or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Prediction: Garcia moneyline

Garcia is the hottest player on tour, and she’s going to finally beat Jabeur.

The Frenchwoman has been on fire ever since her French Open doubles title, and she’s mowed through the US Open draw without dropping a single set.

The Garcia serve has been popping. She’s lost serve just thrice in this event, winning a whopping 77% of her first service points. Garcia has really gone after her serve at this event, and the 14 double faults during her five US Open matches haven’t hurt her at all.

In her quarterfinal victory over Gauff, Garcia employed an interesting return of service strategy. She chose to attack the serve by firing a missile at Gauff’s feet and attacking the net. I’ve never seen a WTA player do this before, and it worked like a charm.

Jabeur is the most successful African-born player in WTA history and was a finalist at Wimbledon, but her hardcourt record leading up to this event (2-3) was spotty. 

The Tunisian isn’t known for her serve and she’s been broken 17 times in this tournament. She’s won just 47% of her second service points, and that isn’t going to get the job done Thursday.

Jabeur is an odd mix of slice and dice and when least expected, she shifts into big-babe tennis mode and will rip a monster forehand winner past her usually stunned opponent. 

That type of strategy might work to a certain degree on Thursday, but it won’t win her the match, and Jabeur has struggled with a 10-20 record during her career against Top-10 players.

Garcia is a multiple, major title-winning doubles player, loves to attack, and seems comfortable finishing points at the net. Garcia will look to step all over the shaky Jabeur serve and force Jabeur to make mistakes, leading to possibly multiple service breaks.

The Frenchwoman has dominated this event with her serve and while I do see her continuing this dominance, Jabeur has a strong return game for Garcia to contend with. 

Garcia has a 4-0 record this summer against the Top 10, including wins over Iga Swiatek, Maria Sakkari, Aryana Sabalenko, and Jessica Pegula. 

Finally, Garcia can’t afford many double faults against Jabeur, and she knows it. Look for the veteran Frenchwoman to take a bit off her first serve, make a high percentage of them, win the majority of those points and reach her first major singles final.

Prediction: Caroline Garcia moneyline (-152 at Pinnacle)

Best bet: Over 21.5 games

Both ladies have played amazing tennis in Queens, and this is their first US Open semifinal. Obviously, there will be nerves and both ladies have a history of being extremely nervous and having those nerves impact their performance.

Jabeur has one of the best return games in the business, and maybe that Garcia serve isn’t as big Thursday as it’s been these past five contests, and she gets broken a couple of times.

Garcia has been successful this tournament by being overaggressive with her service returns, but what happens if she slaps a few of those cupcake Jabuer serves into the photographers' row? You see where I’m going with this?

Garcia has annihilated the draw with her big serve, but she’s up against a fighter who makes her living by breaking serve and has won 52% of her break points in NY. It isn’t unreasonable to believe Jabeur can break the Garcia serve multiple times, and I fully expect her to.

Jabeur has an interesting game. She’ll lull you to sleep with a variety of slices and drops with forehand winners mixed in. Garcia is a terrific mover, and her transition game paired with a willingness to finish points at the net might cause a few unforced errors that normally would be Jabeur winners.

Both players are Top 30 in games played on hard courts, and I don’t see either woman backing down Thursday. Nerves, the occasion, and the fighting nature of both players lead me to believe we’ll see a terrific match of contrasting styles, missteps, and some breathtaking points.

I expect this one to go down to the wire with Garcia winning the match 2-1. 

Pick: Over 21.5 games (-112 at Pinnacle)

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