The French Open begins this Sunday at Roland-Garros with Carlos Alcaraz officially out of the tournament and Jannik Sinner entering Paris as the clear betting favorite after a dominant clay-court season.
Still, there could be value elsewhere on the board, with Frenchman Arthur Fils standing out as a strong outright pick, while Casper Ruud is a longshot that shouldn't be.
On the women's side, Iga Swiatek remains the favorite, but value could be found in 2025 champ Coco Gauff and Italian Open champion Elina Svitolina.
Check out our full 2026 French Open predictions and free betting picks below, including information on Stade Roland Garros, the field, and more.
🎾 French Open 2026: Key takeaways
- Best early bet — Arthur Fils (+2400): Arthur Fils enters Roland-Garros playing the best clay tennis of his career and lands in a favorable section of the draw that gives the young Frenchman a realistic path to the semifinals with the Paris crowd behind him.
- Roland-Garros: Roland-Garros stands apart from the other Grand Slams because its slow clay courts reward patience, endurance, movement, and point construction far more than raw power or big serving.
- Weather: Sunday and Monday are expected to be the hottest days of the fortnight, which benefits big servers like Ben Shelton.
- No Carlos Alcaraz: The two-time defending champion is out due to a wrist injury, leaving Jannik Sinner the clear favorite to win his first French Open.
Phil’s Sunday French Open pick
Alexander Shevchenko moneyline (+163 at Kalshi)
The markets are pricing Alex Michelsen like it’s hard-court season, but his clay numbers are rough.
He’s just 4-7 on clay this year with a 0.91 dominance ratio, meaning he’s losing more points than he’s winning on the surface, while his return rating ranks 78th out of 83 players tracked.
Meanwhile, Alexander Shevchenko is 17-13 on clay with better serve and return numbers over the last 52 weeks. This matchup feels much closer than the odds suggest.
📊 French Open odds: Favorites & full field
The main draw of the French Open, for Men's and Women's singles, will be played at Roland Garros from Sunday, May 24, through Sunday, June 7. Both tournaments feature 128 competitors, playing in a single-elimination tournament.
Men's Draw
| Player |  |
|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | -257 |
| Alexander Zverev | +1329 |
| Novak Djokovic | +1567 |
| Arthur Fils | +2400 |
| Casper Ruud | +2400 |
Women's draw
| Player | |
|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | +257 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | +285 |
| Elena Rybakina | +669 |
| Coco Gauff | +733 |
| Mirra Andreeva | +1150 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, as of May 20.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Check out our expanded French Open odds.
French Open outright picks card
Phil Naessens' outright picks
- Outright: Arthur Fils (+2400): Arthur Fils growing confidence in long baseline exchanges makes him a dangerous matchup over five sets on clay, especially in front of a French crowd desperate for a homegrown breakthrough. With Yannick Noah still the last Frenchman to win Roland-Garros back in 1983, the pressure in Paris is always enormous, but Fils' elite return stats this season make him capable of embracing the moment rather than shrinking from it.
- Outright: Coco Gauff (+450): Coco Gauff’s speed, defense, and elite return game make her extremely difficult to hit through over long matches, especially on slower surfaces. She also avoided several of the most dangerous floaters in the early rounds, giving her a strong path to settle into the tournament before the second week. If Gauff’s forehand holds up under pressure, she has as good a chance as anyone to make another deep run in Paris.
Luc LeBlanc's outright picks
- Outright: Novak Djokovic (+1567): The three-time French Open champ, most recently in 2023, will benefit from the absence of Carlos Alcaraz. Novak enters Roland-Garros having lost his lone clay match in 2026, but defeated Jannik Sinner en route to his first Major Final in 18 months earlier this year. He should never be counted out.
- Outright: Mirra Andreeva (+1150): Andreeva paces the WTA Tour with 15 clay court wins in 2026, with her only losses coming to fellow contenders in Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina, and Marta Kostyuk. She picked up a clay title in Linz and reached the Madrid WTA 1000 Final in April. The 19-year-old already has two WTA 1000s to her name.
French Open long shots for 2026
Here are our best French Open long-shot predictions this year:
Best long-shot bet: Casper Ruud (+2400)
Pick made by: Phil Naessens
Casper Ruud has already reached two French Open finals and another semifinal during his career, giving him one of the strongest recent Paris résumés outside the top favorites.
Ruud enters Roland-Garros playing some of his best tennis of the season after reaching the Rome Masters final and posting dominant clay wins over Lorenzo Musetti, Karen Khachanov, and Stefanos Tsitsipas during the European clay swing. He also reached the Madrid quarterfinals and has carried strong momentum into Geneva ahead of Paris.
- Surface fit: Ruud’s heavy topspin forehand, elite movement, and consistency from the baseline make him one of the ATP Tour’s most reliable clay-court players.
- Recent form: Ruud went 12-3 during the European clay swing and reached the Italian Open final.
- Key stat: Ruud has won 33.3% of his return games on this surface across the previous 52 weeks.
Best long-shot bet: Arthur Fils (+2400)
Pick made by: Luc LeBlanc
Fils reached the semifinals in Madrid, bowing out to the overwhelming French Open favorite, Jannik Sinner.
The Frenchman is 9-2 on clay this year (his other loss being a retirement), beating the likes of Lorenzo Musetti, young phenom Rafael Jodar, and Andrey Rublev to pick up a clay title in Barcelona last month. He's rapidly regained his ranking after an injury-riddled 2025.
- Surface fit: Fils has one of the heaviest forehands on tour and has lightning-quick court coverage (shades of his countryman Gael Monfils).
- Recent form: Fils has the fourth-best win percentage (81.8%) on clay in 2026 — and even that's bogged down by a retirement.
- Key stat: His 69.2% of service points in play won on clay this year trails only Sinner (min. 10 matches).
Best long-shot bet: Marta Kostyuk (+3233)
Pick made by: Luc LeBlanc
Kostyuk is a spotless 11-0 on clay in 2026, picking up her first WTA 1000 in Madrid.
The 23-year-old has only dropped three sets on the surface this year and has beaten top-tier players such as Jessica Pegula, Mirra Andreeva, and Linda Noskova in straights. She opted to skip Rome after a dominant Madrid showing, carrying her undefeated clay record right into Roland-Garros.
- Surface fit: Kostyuk's aggressive tendencies carry some risk, but she makes up for it with her intense power and comfort playing from deep on the baseline.
- Recent form: Kostyuk enters Roland-Garros a perfect 11-0 on clay, capturing her first career WTA 1000 title.
- Key stat: Her 60.6% of return games won on clay this year paces the Tour... by a mile.
Surface breakdown: Legendary Roland-Garros clay
The Roland-Garros terre battue remains one of the slowest graded Grand Slam events on the calendar, and that changes almost everything from a betting perspective.
Big servers lose some of their free points, rallies get longer, and elite movement becomes critical over two weeks. Players who can defend, slide comfortably, return serve, and create heavy topspin usually have the biggest edge in Paris.
Fitness also becomes a major factor because long five-set matches can completely wear players down by the second week. Clay-court specialists often outperform expectations here, especially compared to faster hard-court events from earlier in the season.
Players to watch
- Men's - Rafael Jodar: The Spanish teenager is on the rise with a 45% break of serve rate and a Marrakech title during the past 52 weeks.
- Women's - Mirra Andreeva: The Russian teenager boasts a 47% break of serve rate and a title in Linz across the previous year.
Player profiles to target
- Elite returners: Breaking serve matters far more on clay than faster surfaces, making strong returners extremely dangerous over long matches.
- Heavy topspin hitters: Players who create high-bouncing forehands and push opponents deep behind the baseline usually thrive in Paris.
- Durable grinders: Long rallies and physical matches reward players who can stay patient and maintain consistency for hours.
Why is Carlos Alcaraz not participating in the French Open?
The World No. 2 (and two-time defending champion) has been dealing with a right wrist injury suffered in mid-April during the first round of the Barcelona Open. He has not participated in any events since then and has already withdrawn from the 2026 Wimbledon tournament as well.
Described as an inflammation of the wrist tendon sheath, there are some concerns that the injury could cause him to miss the entirety of the season — and also is why Alcaraz is being extremely cautious with his recovery.
Odds movement & market notes
The women’s French Open futures market has stayed far more competitive heading into Roland-Garros. Iga Świątek and Aryna Sabalenka have traded momentum throughout the clay season, with both players seeing strong market support after deep runs in Madrid and Rome.
Elena Rybakina remains a dangerous outsider, but her odds have fluctuated with fitness concerns and inconsistent clay results. Overall, bettors still view the women’s draw as relatively open compared to the men’s side.
The men’s French Open outright market has shifted dramatically toward Jannik Sinner, whose title probability surged after the combination of Carlos Alcaraz opting out plus his dominant clay swing and continued strong form against the ATP’s top players.
Meanwhile, Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic have remained relatively flat in the market, showing that bettors see a sizable gap entering Paris. The current numbers suggest sportsbooks and bettors alike view Sinner as the clear favorite at Roland-Garros this year.
How to watch the 2026 French Open
How to watch:
- Main television broadcast: TNT
- Court hopping coverage: truTV
- Streaming: HBO Max
French Open 2026 betting FAQ
Who are the 2026 French Open favorites?
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is favored on the Men's side, while four-time French Open champ Iga Swiatek is favored in the Women's draw.
When is the 2026 French Open?
The main draw of the 2026 French Open will be played from Sunday, May 24, to Sunday, June 7.
Where will the 2026 French Open be played?
The 2026 French Open will be played at Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France.
Are French Open odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight to significant variations in prices across prediction markets (and regulated sportsbooks) for the French Open.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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