World No. 1 Novak Djokovic hasn’t lost a tennis match at the National Tennis Centre at Melbourne Park since 2018 and is alone atop the Australian Open odds board to repeat as champion for the fifth consecutive time and eleventh overall when the tournament begins on Sunday, January 14.
The event will seem a bit empty, with Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios withdrawing due to injury. Still, Djokovic will get plenty of competition from the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Daniil Medvedev.
Does anyone have a chance to dethrone Djokovic? Find out when we take a closer look at the Australian Open favorites, a couple of sleepers, and more in our 2024 Australian Open men's singles betting preview below.
Odds to win 2024 Australian Open Men's Singles
| Player |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | +110 | +100 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | +333 | +350 |
| Jannik Sinner | +650 | +650 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +900 | +1,000 |
| Alexander Zverev | +2,500 | +2,500 |
| Holger Rune | +2,200 | +2,800 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | +3,300 | +3,500 |
Odds as of January 8, 2024.
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Australian Open 2024 Men's favorites
Who's hot
Novak Djokovic (+100 at DraftKings)
Novak Djokovic hoisted his first Australian Open title in 2005 and 19 years removed, he isn’t just in the conversation, he is the conversation as well as the betting favorite to win his eleventh Aussie title.
He’s coming off a 2023 season where he reached the final in all four Grand Slam events, with wins at the Australian, French Open, and US Open as well as a runner-up to Carlos Alcaraz in five sets at Wimbledon.
Djokovic is a legendary counterpuncher with stamina to burn and one of the best return games on the planet. The Serbian native has a phenomenal career Grand Slam break-of-serve rate of 32.6%, which has fueled his 92-8 career mark and 10 titles at the calendar's first major event of the season.
Djokovic represented Serbia in January’s United Cup and went 2-1 before suffering a straight-set loss to Alex de Minaur and has complained of a sore wrist ever since. However, he’s won his last four Australian Opens, has a winning record against Alcaraz, and wrist injury or not, he’s the favorite for good reason.
Carlos Alcaraz (+350 at DraftKings)
In just four short years, Alcaraz has gone from a little guy with potential to one of the best players in the world with a pair of majors on his mantle and a burgeoning rivalry with Djokovic. He defeated Novak in an epic come-from-behind victory in the Wimbledon final but has lost two straight to the World No. 1.
Alcaraz skipped this event in 2022. The World No. 2 chose to forego any preseason warmup events entering this event other than an exhibition with de Minaur, which is an interesting way to prepare for an event considering he hasn’t gone past the third round.
The reality is the Spaniard is one of the brightest stars in the ATP Tour sky, with a great set of wheels and an ability to go from defend to attack better than any player I've ever seen. He has a better-than-average serve which can allow him free points as well as the best break-of-serve rate on tour over his last 77 matches.
He opens the event against Frances Richard Gasquet with a possible fourth-round matchup against Tommy Paul.
Daniil Medvedev (+750 at DraftKings)
Russian No. 1 Daniil Medvedev is a player who can beat anyone on tour, especially on hard courts, where he went a second-best 46-11 against the best hitters in the world. He’s a two-time finalist here (2021, 2022) with a dependable game from both sides of the center stripe.
Medvedev fired the fourth-most aces on the hard stuff last season, but his return game is what gives him the ability to beat anyone. Medvedev led the tour with a 31.7% break rate on the hardcourts and has a winning record against the top seeds in the draw except for Djokovic (5-10) and Alcaraz (2-3).
He ended the 2023 season with consecutive losses to Alcaraz and Sinner, but he still finished the season with the second-best hardcourt record on tour. Medvedev begins his quest for his second major title with an unnamed qualifier and a possible second-round encounter with Emil Ruusuvuori.
His choice to opt out of the warmup events is curious; we’ll see if his choice pays off or not early next week.
Jannik Sinner (+1,300 at DraftKings)
If there's one player who can defeat both Alcaraz and Djokovic, it would be Jannik Sinner. The young Italian had a breakthrough season in 2023 with seven titles (six on hardcourts) and was ATP Tour co-leader in overall match wins alongside Alcaraz (65).
Sinner has a huge, multi-faceted game. In 2023, he fired the 12th-most aces, and the Italian No. 1 boasts a 29% break rate, which was fourth on tour behind only Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Medvedev. He offers some of the biggest strokes from both wings and can finish a ball into the backdrop against anyone, as evidenced by his .500 record against the speedy Alcaraz.
The World No. 4’s best result here was an appearance in the 2022 quarters, and like Alcaraz, he decided to forego the warmup events and play the AO without any serious matches under his belt. He has a difficult first-round matchup with Botic van de Zandschulp with a possible fourth-round meeting with Andrey Rublev.
Who's not
Frances Tiafoe (+15,000 at DraftKings)
No. 17-seeded Frances Tiafoe has ridden the struggle bus since his quarterfinal loss at the US Open to compatriot Ben Shelton. The Baltimore native won two events before Wimbledon but has dropped seven of his previous 11 matchups since then.
Tiafoe parted ways in December with longtime coach Wayne Ferreira but began the season splitting his first two matches in Hong Kong. The big serve he rode to capture his two 2023 titles has been inconsistent, as has his return game. Big Foe has a difficult draw, opening with Borna Coric with a possible third-round matchup with either Daniel Altmaier or Karen Khachanov.
Australian 2024 Men's sleepers
Players to watch
Alexander Zverev (+2,700 at DraftKings)
Alexander Zverev seems to have fully recovered from the horrific knee injury suffered at the 2022 French Open. The German national ended his 2023 campaign with the sixth-most hard-court victories (35) with a pair of titles but suffered a three-set defeat to Hubert Hurkacz in the final of the United Cup.
Zverev fired the third-most aces with an above-average 20% break rate on the cement. The No. 6 seed opens against compatriot Dominik Koepfer, and if he survives, there's a possible quarterfinal clash with Alcaraz.
Grigor Dimitrov (+4,000 at DraftKings)
Grigor Dimitrov has quietly re-found the form that led him to a No. 3 world ranking in 2017. He won the 13th-most matches on the hard stuff last season and opened his 2024 campaign with a strong, straight-sets victory over Holger Rune to win the Brisbane warmup event.
Dimitrov finished his 2023 season with the 13th-most aces and the 12th-highest break rate on hardcourts. He dazzled in Brisbane and is coming off his best season of his last five. He opens his event against Marton Fucsovics with a potential fourth-round matchup against Medvedev.
Ben Shelton (+6,500 at DraftKings)
Ben Shelton catapulted on the scene this time last year with a terrific run to the quarterfinals.
He then failed to win consecutive matches in his next 16 events before reaching the semifinals of the US Open. He went on to claim the hard-court title in Tokyo and is currently on a two-match winning streak after dropping his opening match of the season to Roman Safiullin.
Shelton has one of the biggest serves on tour, had a great run here last year, and is poised to make a strong showing. The No. 16 seed opens his draw with a difficult opponent in Roberto Bautista Agut with a possible fourth-round rematch of their US Open semifinal with Djokovic.
Long-shots to avoid
Alex de Minaur (+2,800 at DraftKings)
Alex de Minaur has stepped out of fellow Nick Kyrgios's shadow, and the freshly minted World No. 10 already has victories this season over Djokovic and Taylor Dent. He's the second-fastest man on tour, with the third-highest break-of-serve rate in 2023.
That being said, de Minaur doesn’t have the knockout weapon needed to take down a major title and sometimes tries to do too much with his forehand, which gets him into trouble and is why he finished his 2023 campaign with an 8-9 record against the Top-10 players in the world.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+5,000 at DraftKings)
The Greek No. 1 was the runner-up to Djokovic in 2023, has a huge fanbase Down Under, and has reached the finals here twice. He’s had elbow issues over the past 18 months and has dropped four of his last five matches, including a straight-sets loss to Zverev at the United Cup.
Tsitsipas has a tough draw ahead of him. He faces Matteo Berretini in the first round and — if he advances — has a possible second-round matchup with Aleksandar Vukic or Jordan Thompson. If he gets through, he could face Lorenzo Musetti in Round 3. This is a heinous draw for the Greek national and one he likely won’t get through.
