If you’re still weighing your Super Bowl predictions for tonight's Seahawks vs. Patriots showdown, it’s worth looking beyond traditional sportsbooks.
Prediction markets like Kalshi offer a different lens on the Big Game, translating public sentiment into real-time win probabilities and betting opportunities.
Below, we break down how the Kalshi markets are pricing Seahawks vs. Patriots and highlight the best bets those markets are signaling ahead of kickoff tonight.
Seahawks vs Patriots predictions
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Seattle to win | Trade at Kalshi |
| Underdog +4.5 — Yes | Trade at Kalshi |
| Over 44.5 — No | Trade at Kalshi |
| Rashid Shaheed to score a TD | Trade at Kalshi |
| Drake Maye to score a TD | Trade at Kalshi |
Who will win Seahawks vs Patriots at prediction markets?
The Seattle Seahawks currently sit at 68 cents to win — 68% implied probability or -212 — while you can get the New England Patriots at 32 cents (32%, +213).
Our prediction: Seattle
Solving the Super Bowl riddle is never an easy task for football bettors, but I believe this is Seattle’s game to lose. We’ve seen New England skate by teams with strong defenses but shortcomings on offense.
The Seahawks are not only a top-tier defense but have an offense that can put up points, making them the toughest two-way challenge the Patriots have faced all season.
Check out Jason's complete analysis in his Seahawks vs Patriots predictions.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS' and get a $10 trading bonus after you trade $10 on any other event contracts — including this game!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Seahawks vs Patriots props at prediction markets
Beyond the winner of the game, there are several other markets available for Seahawks vs Patriots at Kalshi, including the spread, total, and team total for the game, plus player touchdown props and quarterback passing markets.
Each market is priced based on implied probability, which can be converted to American, Decimal, or Fraction odds using the Covers odds converter.
Seahawks vs Patriots spread and total at prediction markets
| Outcome | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle -4.5 | 52¢ (-105) | 50¢ (+100) |
| Over 45.5 | 50¢ (+100) | 50¢ (+100) |
Our prediction: Sam Darnold Over 229.5 passing yards
Sam Darnold threw for 4,048 yards in the regular season despite often playing with a positive game script. The Seattle Seahawks pivot went ballistic in the NFC Championship Game, completing 25 of 36 passes for 346 yards.
The New England Patriots are stout against the run, so Seattle will likely air it out against a defense that ranked 15th in dropback success rate. The Pats haven't allowed many passing yards over the last month, but have often played in poor weather while facing a slew of bad QBs, including Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, and Jarrett Stidham.
What's cool about Kalshi is that you can also bet on alt markets for both the spread and total. Alt spreads range from Seattle -14.5 to New England-14.5. As for the total, you can go from 35.5 to 59.5.
Seahawks vs Patriots touchdown props at prediction markets
| Player | Anytime TD | First TD |
|---|---|---|
 Kenneth Walker III |
63¢ (-170) | 21¢ (+376) |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
51¢ (-104) | 15¢ (+567) |
 Rhamondre Stevenson |
38¢ (+163) | 10¢ (+900) |
| Hunter Henry |
30¢ (+233) | 7¢ (+1329) |
| AJ Barner |
30¢ (+233) | 7¢ (+1329) |
| Cooper Kupp |
28¢ (+257) | 6¢ (+1567) |
| Stefon Diggs |
27¢ (+270) | 6¢ (+1567) |
| Drake Maye |
25¢ (+300) | 6¢ (+1567) |
Our predictions: AJ Barner first TD and Mack Hollins anytime TD
Neil Parker's Super Bowl first touchdown picks are backing AJ Barner to break the plane early for the Seattle Seahawks.
"[Barner] caught six touchdowns during the regular season and also rushed one in, with the 23-year-old tight end frequently moonlighting in quarterback-sneak and short-yardage situations. Forget the tush push, it’s time for the Seattle shove."
Josh Inglis' Super Bowl touchdown prop picks are headlined by the unheralded Mack Hollins.
"The Seattle Seahawks have allowed just five rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs all season, and Matthew Stafford showed last time out that this defense can be attacked through the air. It’s a steep price, but one that makes sense for a receiver who should be competing for the team lead in targets."
Check out our Super Bowl touchdown picks for even more selections!
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts" which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Eagles win this Sunday?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.
Why should I wager on Seahawks vs Patriots at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
