Shopping for last-minute Super Bowl player props can be profitable.
You’re not getting the best numbers for most markets, but you do have the ability to buy back overcorrections that were fueled by two weeks of non-stop action.
With kickoff coming quick, I sniff around the discount bins for some value in my last-minute Seahawks vs. Patriots predictions.
Seahawks vs Patriots last-minute bets for Super Bowl 60
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Drake Maye |
Under 6.5 rush attempts | +105 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson |
Under 24.5 receiving yards | -108 |
 Sam Darnold |
Under 0.5 interceptions | +105 |
| Drake Maye |
Under 0.5 interceptions | +105 |
Prop bet #1: Drake Maye Under 6.5 rush attempts
Drake Maye’s legs carried the New England Patriots to Super Bowl 60. With bad weather and good defenses standing in his way, the Patriots QB opted to take off a ton in the playoffs.
Maye has rushed for 141 yards with a total of 24 carries; however, eight of those attempts were kneel-downs to kill the clock at the end of those wins. He’s had 16 true carries, including just two against the Texans.
The Seattle Seahawks have similar success as the Texans when it comes to creating pressure with just the front four, allowing the linebackers to spy the QB and contain. Projections for Maye sit around six carries, but considering the game script, the likelihood of a kneel down or two isn’t as great.
Some mainstream sportsbooks opened Over 6.5 rush attempts from Maye at -102, and this prop is currently as expensive as -140 on Super Bowl Sunday, but if you look at some sharper shops, we see the Over 6.5 hit the board at -140 and dwindled to -113 with the Under 6.5 carries now -103.
You can find a positive return on Maye Under 6.5 rush attempts (+105) with the public pushing that price on the Over.
Prop bet #2: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 24.5 receiving yards
Standout players often see one-sided action on their Overs, and Rhamondre Stevenson’s receiving yards total is a perfect example. It’s also an ideal late buyback for the Under.
The Patriots RB has been excellent as a pass-catcher since December and opened the playoffs with 75 receiving yards against the Chargers before recording 11 and zero yards through the air in the last two postseason games (four catches on six targets).
His receiving yards total for Super Bowl LX opened as short as 18.5 yards, and some books went lower to 17.5 before money on the Over flooded in and pushed up this prop total to as high as 25.5 yards on gameday (Over -115). That’s an 8-yard market swing.
Player projections for Stevenson range from 19.85 to 23.93 receiving yards from the Pats RB, with my number just shy of 22 yards. That forecast would have pointed us toward the Over right out of the gate, but here on gameday (after that massive move), it should have the Under 25.5 priced around -190 rather than -105.
Prop bet #3: Sam Darnold/Drake Maye Under 0.5 interceptions
Interception props for both quarterbacks opened with the Under 0.5 INTs listed around -110. The closer we get to kickoff, the more those props swing in the other direction.
Both teams are being heralded for their defense, and that narrative has the Over 0.5 interceptions sitting as expensive as -140 for Sam Darnold and -150 for Maye.
The Patriots QB has thrown two interceptions in the postseason, albeit one was a last-second chuck at the end of the half against Houston. Darnold has kept a clean sheet in his two postseason outings, but did have 14 INTs in the regular season — third most in the league.
Player projections do lean toward both quarterbacks getting picked off at some point, but with the movement toward the Over, the Under 0.5 INTs for Darnold and Maye have gone from highs of -125 and -150 to plus-money results.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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