The Super Bowl is here, and with no shortage of prop bets on the board, the head-to-head player props are well worth a look.
These markets pit two players directly against each other, and in this case, we’re focusing on the quarterbacks: the New England Patriots’ Drake Maye against the Seattle Seahawks’ Sam Darnold.
Here are my three best Drake Maye vs. Sam Darnold H2H Super Bowl player props and Super Bowl predictions for Sunday, February 8.
Super Bowl Head-to-Head Prop Picks: Drake Maye vs Sam Darnold
Drake Maye & Sam Darnold Over 46.5 total rushing yards (-114 at DraftKings)
This is one of my best bets on Super Bowl Sunday.
Sam Darnold isn’t a runner by nature, but he’s been more willing to use his legs as the season has gone on, with at least one rushing attempt in six of his last seven games. If a play breaks down, he won’t hesitate to take what’s there.
The real engine behind this bet is Drake Maye, who could realistically clear this number on his own. He’s averaged 29.5 rushing yards per game this season, and would have gone Over this line in two of his three playoff games.
Against a strong Seattle Seahawks defense, Maye may need to put the offense on his back at times, and that usually means using his legs to keep drives alive.
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Drake Maye vs Sam Darnold rushing yards spread: Maye -29.5 (-116 at DraftKings)
Darnold likely tops out around 10 to 15 rushing yards, while Maye’s rushing upside is real. When the New England Patriots need a spark, Maye leans into his legs and his dual-threat ability.
Before the Week 14 bye, Maye had just one game with double-digit carries. Since then, he’s done it three more times.
He ran 10 times against Buffalo in Week 15 in what felt like a division-defining game, then logged 10+ carries in two of three playoff games, piling up 66 yards versus the Chargers and 65 against the Broncos in the conference championship.
Against a strong Seahawks defense, Maye is the type of quarterback who will try to move the chains himself if the offense stalls.
Drake Maye & Sam Darnold Over 452.5 total passing yards (-113 at DraftKings)
Maye can occasionally post a quiet passing game, like the 86-yard outing against Denver last week, but he’s usually a gunslinger. He’s averaging 246.3 yards per game, and with New England ranking first in EPA per pass, this isn’t an offense that’s going to suddenly hide him.
Seattle’s defense is more bend-don’t-break than shut-down, and they can give up yardage, as Matthew Stafford showed by throwing for 374 yards against them in the NFC Championship. I’m not expecting that level of production, but Maye should still do his share of the work.
On the other side, Darnold is averaging 237.7 passing yards per game and has real spike potential, especially with Jaxon Smith-Njigba in top form and Rashid Shaheed stretching the field.
I expect Seattle to win, but not by enough to lean heavily on the run and bleed the clock, particularly with Zach Charbonnet unavailable.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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