The Super Bowl, like any football game, is a tale of two halves.
What happens in the opening 30 minutes might not matter when the final whistle blows... but there's still value to be found!
I've isolated the first two frames of the Big Game, and based on the trading prices at Kalshi, found my favorite Seahawks vs. Patriots predictions for the first half of Super Bowl 60.
Super Bowl LX first -half predictions
| Market | Price (US Odds) |
|---|---|
| First TD: 4:59-0:00 in 1Q | 19¢ (+426) |
| First half o45.5 points - NO | 45¢ (+122) |
| First half winner - Seahawks | 58¢ (-138) |
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First Touchdown Time: Between 4:59 and 0:00 first quarter
Trading price: 19 cents ($100 returns $526)
Most NFL games see the first touchdown 8-10 minutes into the first quarter... but Super Bowl first quarters are typically low scoring, with teams averaging 7.2 points in the first 15 minutes over the past 18 championships.
We have two of the better 1Q offenses in the NFL, in the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, but on the biggest stage, quarterbacks are tight and receivers are nervous, which can lead to wayward throws and dropped balls.
These defenses are just as strong, with defenders thirsty for contact (after two weeks of playing two-hand touch) and should tackle with extra pop in those first few possessions. Plus, with neither QB wanting to make a crucial error early on, the first 10 minutes of Super Bowl LX will be like two boxers feeling each other out in the first few rounds.
I do expect one team to strike for a touchdown blow before the end of the quarter, so by the time 4:59 shows on the game clock, the teams will have had possessions to work out the rust/nerves and single out a soft spot in the opposing stop unit.
First Half Total: Over 20.5 Points? No
Trading price: 45 cents ($100 returns $222)
Traditional sportsbooks offer Under 20.5 1H points around +105 (48.78% implied probability). Kalshi has the same ask on the derivative total at a 45% probability, which pans out to a +123 price tag.
Both teams have followed their defenses to Super Bowl LX, so a low-scoring game could be in the cards, and we’ve seen the game total tick down from 46.5 to as low as 45 points across the industry.
In terms of first-half numbers, Seattle and New England rank No. 1 and No. 4, respectively, in 1H EPA allowed per play this year. The Seahawks finished 6-13 O/U versus first-half totals in the regular season (2-0 in playoffs) while the Patriots were 11-8-1 1H O/U (1-2 playoffs).
First half winner: Seattle Seahawks – Yes
Trading price: 58 cents ($100 returns $172)
Looking across traditional books, the Seahawks 1H moneyline is priced around -190 at most shops. That’s a 65.5% implied probability — and Kalshi is offering the same outcome at 58%, which equals -138.
Seattle is the outright favorite and notorious for strong starts this season. The Seahawks own an average margin of +7.4 points through the first 30 minutes and went 14-5-2 in the 1H en route to Super Bowl LX.
New England has an identical average first-half margin (+7.4 points) and a better overall 1H record at 19-1-3 – only trailing at the half once all season. That said, the Patriots’ strength of schedule was rated the weakest in the NFL... while Seattle’s SOS was the fourth-hardest.
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