NHL Picks

Mark Stone has 39 helpers through 42 games, recording at least one in 60% of his appearances. He’s most productive when playing on a line with both Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev. He has averaged 1.7 points per game with that duo compared to 1.3 when he’s not, and his average assist output is higher. 

Kyle Connor has scored in three straight games and four of his last six. He's poised to extend his goal streak against the Sharks, who rank third-last in team defense and will be playing their third game in four days.

The Sharks rank 30th in goals allowed, 31st in shot suppression, and only two teams have given up more shots per game to centers.

That bodes well for Mark Scheifele. The veteran pivot leads the Jets in goals, powered by a remarkable 23.3% finishing rate. He doesn’t need many opportunities to score and he should get plenty in this matchup.

Jordan Kyrou has averaged 3.3 shots on goal over his last 10 games, clearing 2.5 shots in nine of them. He did it despite a difficult strength of schedule in which he faced several low-event, structured teams built to limit shots (Dallas x3, Winnipeg, Los Angeles).

He now draws a Minnesota Wild team that ranks dead last in shots and shot attempts allowed over their last 10 games.

They rank 30th in slot shots allowed during that span, which is Kyrou’s primary shooting zone. Kyrou has 3+ shots in 10 of the last 11 against Minnesota and his success should continue. 

Minnesota plays at a faster tempo at home and has been generating consistent five-on-five pressure, while St. Louis has struggled to slow quality chances off the rush. The Blues can score, but they give plenty back, especially on special teams. With two capable power plays and defensive lapses on both sides, this matchup is going Over the total. 

Excluding opponents who rank Top-10 in limiting goals, Mason McTavish has hit the scoresheet in 60% of his games this season. That already strong hit rate soars to 72% when playing on home soil.

He’s been extremely consistent in these spots. Only once since November 1st has McTavish gone back-to-back games without a point against a non Top-10 defense – never at home.

The Flames rank 21st in goals allowed per 60 minutes on the road and are in the latter half of a back-to-back. This is a good spot for McTavish to make noise.

Calgary is the second-lowest scoring team in the NHL at 2.48 goals per game, but the Ducks own the second-worst goals against in the league, allowing 3.52 goals against. While it might be tempting to take the Flames on the puckline, they’ve lost five straight playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Instead, I’m going to target the Under, which is 6-1-0 in Calgary games on a second consecutive night.