NHL Picks

Play Shayne Gostisbehere for 2+ shots to 56%.

Gostisbehere has generated shots with great consistency out of the gate, attempting at least five in all eight games.

The volume should continue to be there against the Winnipeg Jets. Isolating Bottom-12 teams in limiting shots, Gostisbehere has gone Over 1.5 in 15 of his past 17 games dating back to last year.

Jake DeBrusk turns 30 Saturday as Vancouver visits Tampa Bay, and his early production makes him worth backing despite the Canucks' difficult start. DeBrusk has three goals and two assists through seven games, giving him multiple paths to cash this wager. With a 42% probability on Novig, I'm backing DeBrusk to record at least one point on his birthday.

These two teams are a combined 10-5-0 O/U to start this season after being two of the highest-scoring teams in the NHL in 2025-26.

The Canadiens have played to the Over in five of their last six, allowing five or more goals in four of those games. The Sabres have allowed four or more in four of their last five. The Habs' underlying numbers aren't terrible (47.99 xGF% in all situations), but they're certainly not indicative of a sound defensive team.

How can I not go with Auston Matthews after he's cashed this play for us in two straight games? He's clearly on another level now that he's healthy, and his shooting percentage (40%) is among the league's best on the man advantage. When Matthews is shooting, he's hitting twine - he has four goals across his last three games as a result. Let's pot one more against this stingy Islanders defense.

Matthew Knies celebrates his 24th birthday Saturday as Columbus hosts the Rangers, and we're backing him to mark the occasion with a goal. Knies has scored twice through five games this season, giving him an encouraging early scoring pace. His offensive role provides the foundation for the wager, while Birthday Mojo supplies the storyline. At a 34% probability on Novig, Knies is my featured milestone selection.

Wyatt Johnston has generated a healthy 2.1 expected goals through five games but has not found the back of the net.

The Chicago Blackhawks rank 27th in expected goals allowed and 29th in shot suppression.

They are giving up a ton of looks, including to Johnston’s primary shooting zones.

More than 50% of his attempts come from the low slot, and Chicago is allowing 15% more shots from that location than league average.

I’m targeting Adrian Kempe for 3+ shots to 62%.

Kempe has averaged 3.2 shots on 8.5 attempts through five games despite a difficult schedule.

Four of the five teams he has faced – Edmonton, Colorado, Florida, and Vegas – rank in the top half of the league in shot suppression. 

Only eight teams have allowed more shots on goal per 60 than the Boston Bruins, who played in Anaheim just last night.

The Edmonton Oilers boast the NHL's second-highest scoring offense, averaging 4.43 goals per game, while the Utah Mammoth aren't far behind, ranking fourth in hockey with 3.88 goals per contest, and third in xGoals percentage (58.24). While Edmonton has tightened things up defensively over its last three games, Tristan Jarry gets the nod tonight, bringing an ugly 3.37 goals-against average and .827 save percentage into the matchup. With those numbers between the pipes and Utah boasting the NHL's top-ranked power play, I'm expecting a fast-paced game with plenty of scoring opportunities.