NHL Picks

I’m backing Adrian Kempe for 3+ shots to 59%.

He has averaged 2.8 shots on 7.3 attempts this season despite facing a murderer’s row of opponents including the Avalanche, Panthers, Golden Knights, Oilers, and Bruins.

He should have an easier time getting rubber on net against the Washington Capitals. 

The Capitals rank 27th in shot suppression at 5-on-5 and 29th on the penalty kill. They’re also one of the more undisciplined teams in the league, sitting 29th in shorthanded time per game.

I’m jumping on the Under to 52%.

San Jose is known as a high-powered offensive team but they sit 24th in goals per game and 25th in shooting percentage. 

Alex Ndeljkovic is tied with Ilya Sorokin for third in Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 (+1.2), and will prevent the Montreal Canadiens from truly running it up.

Auston Matthews is set to play his 700th NHL game tonight, and there's no better way to celebrate than with a goal. The Maple Leafs captain visits Columbus with a chance to mark the milestone against a Blue Jackets team that has struggled to keep opponents off the scoresheet. Matthews' scoring ability makes him a natural anytime-goal candidate, but it's his matchup and opportunity, not the round number, that make this worth considering.

Wyatt Johnston is coming off a 45 goal campaign and owns an exceptional 16.8% finishing rate in his career.

He’s a top-tier goal scorer who is yet to open his account despite generating more than 2.9 expected goals and increasing his shot attempt output.

The Bruins are 16th in slot shots allowed and that is where the bulk of Johnston’s volume comes from.

Evan Bouchard celebrates his 27th birthday tonight, and the Oilers defenseman has been scoring like a forward. Bouchard has already buried six goals in eight games, making him one of the NHL's most dangerous offensive blueliners to start the season. Minnesota presents a tough matchup, but the high game total suggests scoring opportunities on both sides. With his recent finishing form and Birthday Mojo in play, I'm backing Bouchard to bury one. 

Play to 62%.

Moritz Seider has gone Over 1.5 shots in six of eight games this season, and recorded a season-high in attempts in one of the two exceptions. 

That came against the Seattle Kraken, which certainly checks out. The Kraken have allowed the second-most shots on goal per game to opposing defensemen.

On top of bleeding shots to blueliners, the Kraken have played at the third highest 5-on-5 pace this season.

Shayne Gostisbehere is a play for 2+ shots to 62%.

The Vancouver Canucks rank dead last in shot share (39.2%) and shots allowed per game (32.46). 

Gostisbehere leads every day Carolina Hurricanes blueliners with an 80% offensive zone start rate at 5-on-5, and also quarterbacks the top power play.

He is consistently being put in prime offensive situations and taking full advantage, recording multiple shots on target in seven of 10 games.

This Over is recommended up to 60% because Eichel has recorded three or more shots in four of his past six games for 20 total on 29 attempts. The go-to center has also posted a high-end 56.1 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five, and Vegas head coach Ryan Craig has the last-change advantage to pick the on-ice matchups for his No. 1 center tonight. Finally, there is also statistical correction coming to Eichel's shot volume with the man advantage.