NHL Picks

Play Shayne Gostisbehere for 2+ shots to 56%.

Gostisbehere has generated shots with great consistency out of the gate, attempting at least five in all eight games.

The volume should continue to be there against the Winnipeg Jets. Isolating Bottom-12 teams in limiting shots, Gostisbehere has gone Over 1.5 in 15 of his past 17 games dating back to last year.

I’m going to double dip with Tampa Bay Lightning forwards and target Brandon Hagel for an assist to 53%.

Hagel is skating on the opposite wing of Nikita Kucherov on the top line. He averaged nearly two assists per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play with Kucherov last season, to say nothing of what he was able to accomplish on the power play.

The Lightning are incredibly large 78% favorites, and Hagel has tallied 14 assists over Tampa Bay’s last 15 victories.

When it comes to firing pucks towards opposing goaltenders, Thompson is effectively matchup-proof. His 37 shots on goal this season are one behind the league lead, and he's cleared this line in six of eight games in 2026-27. He's priced at just 45% despite this.

The Arizona native has recorded a ridiculous 62 shot attempts, racking up seven or more in all but one game this season. There's trigger-happy, and then there's Tage Thompson.

How can I not go with Auston Matthews after he's cashed this play for us in two straight games? He's clearly on another level now that he's healthy, and his shooting percentage (40%) is among the league's best on the man advantage. When Matthews is shooting, he's hitting twine - he has four goals across his last three games as a result. Let's pot one more against this stingy Islanders defense.

Lucas Raymond has attempted 42 shots and generated 2.1 expected goals but is still seeking his first of the season.

He is one of just three forwards with 40+ shot attempts who hasn’t found the back of the net and is tied for 10th for most xG created without a goal. 

Raymond is a career 14.2% shooter so there’s no reason to expect his poor finishing to continue.

Matthew Knies celebrates his 24th birthday Saturday as Columbus hosts the Rangers, and we're backing him to mark the occasion with a goal. Knies has scored twice through five games this season, giving him an encouraging early scoring pace. His offensive role provides the foundation for the wager, while Birthday Mojo supplies the storyline. At a 34% probability on Novig, Knies is my featured milestone selection.

Wyatt Johnston has generated a healthy 2.1 expected goals through five games but has not found the back of the net.

The Chicago Blackhawks rank 27th in expected goals allowed and 29th in shot suppression.

They are giving up a ton of looks, including to Johnston’s primary shooting zones.

More than 50% of his attempts come from the low slot, and Chicago is allowing 15% more shots from that location than league average.

I’m targeting Adrian Kempe for 3+ shots to 62%.

Kempe has averaged 3.2 shots on 8.5 attempts through five games despite a difficult schedule.

Four of the five teams he has faced – Edmonton, Colorado, Florida, and Vegas – rank in the top half of the league in shot suppression. 

Only eight teams have allowed more shots on goal per 60 than the Boston Bruins, who played in Anaheim just last night.

Tomas Hertl has seen an uptick in usage under Ryan Craig and generated high-danger opportunities in bulk. Nobody on the Golden Knights has piled up more expected goals than Hertl (4.7).

The Pittsburgh Penguins are in the latter half a road back-to-back and rank fourth in 5-on-5 pace this season. It’s a great spot to deal damage.

Yes, Guenther has been a force on the power play, ranking fourth in the NHL in expected goals for with the man advantage. It helps to know that the Oilers are abysmal on the penalty kill, clicking at just a 68% rate, which is 28th in the NHL. With that kind of offensive involvement and scoring opportunity against a team that can't clear the puck in their own zone, I love his chances of finding the scoresheet at least once tonight on the man advantage.