Washington Commanders
Picks

3rd in NFC East (3 - 5 - 0)

Next Game

SEASeattle

WASWashington

Sun, Nov 2 20:20 ET

SEA @ WAS Picks

NFL Picks

Score a Touchdown

Zach Charbonnet Score a Touchdown (Yes: +110)

Best Odds

+120

Pick made: yesterday

+105

+120

+115

+110

There’s nothing wrong with taking the square side in a high-scoring matchup, and I’m sticking with the Seahawks’ red-zone favorite—not the longer-priced Kenneth Walker. Does Walker deserve more work? Probably. But Seattle clearly trusts Zach Charbonnet when it matters most. Since Week 4, Charbonnet has 15 red-zone carries to Walker’s eight, and he’s turned four of them into touchdowns while Walker hasn’t scored once. Inside the 5-yard line, the split is even more telling—seven carries for Charbonnet to just one for Walker. He’s the back you want to bet on to find the end zone Sunday night.

Spread

SEA -3.0 (-110)

Best Odds

-3.0 -105

Pick made: yesterday

-2.5 -120

-3.0 -105

-3.0 -110

-3.0 -107

Daniels will be under center on Sunday Night Football, his top target won’t. Receiver Terry McLaurin reaggravated his quad injury on Monday and will not suit up against the Seahawks. That’s a sizable loss to this offense, considering the competition. Seattle is among the defensive boogeymen this season, with the stop unit really taking shape in MacDonald’s second season with the Seahawks. They enter Week 9 sitting among the Top 10 in many of the “crown jewel” analytics, including No. 3 in Defensive DVOA at FTN. The heart of this group has been the defensive line, which is cooking up “Instant Pot” levels of pass pressure. Seattle is sixth in pressure rate and among the leaders in hurries, QB hits, and sacks. All of that chaos is coming despite MacDonald dialing up the blitz at one of the lowest rates in the land.

Score a Touchdown

Kenneth Walker III Score a Touchdown (Yes: +150)

Projection 0.53 (Yes)

Best Odds

+150

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

+130

+150

+140

+135

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.2 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. While Kenneth Walker III has been responsible for 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Seattle's offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 6.0%.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the league against the Washington Commanders defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).. The Commanders linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

+150 at bet365

Score a Touchdown

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Score a Touchdown (Yes: -110)

Projection 0.66 (Yes)

Best Odds

-110

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

-110

-120

-114

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.2 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. The model projects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the end zone in this contest (30.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.4% in games he has played).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has totaled far more air yards this year (125.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 93.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 57.6.

-110 at DraftKings

Passing Completions

Jayden Daniels o20.5 Passing Completions (-114)

Projection 22.68 (Over)

Best Odds

o20.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o20.5 -126

o20.5 -114

o21.5 +100

o20.5 -124

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 68.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. The Seattle cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Jayden Daniels o221.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 247.28 (Over)

Best Odds

o221.5 -115

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o229.5 -113

o228.5 -114

o221.5 -115

o226.5 -115

-115 at BetMGM

Interceptions Thrown

Sam Darnold u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-114)

Projection 0.4 (Under)

Best Odds

u0.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

u0.5 -122

u0.5 -114

u0.5 -130

u0.5 -129

With a 3-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.. Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks as the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The 7th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Seahawks this year (a measly 52.7 per game on average).. The projections expect Sam Darnold to throw 33.4 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 10th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Deebo Samuel o54.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Projection 74.29 (Over)

Best Odds

o53.5 -115

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o54.5 -112

o54.5 -114

o53.5 -115

o54.5 -115

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 68.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. The leading projections forecast Deebo Samuel Sr. to accrue 9.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 95th percentile among WRs.

-115 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Kenneth Walker III o5.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 9.93 (Over)

Best Odds

o4.5 -118

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o5.5 -115

o4.5 -118

o5.5 -110

o5.5 -107

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.2 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. The Commanders defense has given up the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (38.0) versus RBs this year.. The Commanders pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus RBs this year, conceding 8.27 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the league.. The Commanders linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

-118 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Zach Ertz o36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 42.33 (Over)

Best Odds

o34.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o36.5 -110

o34.5 -114

o36.5 -115

o35.5 -115

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 68.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. In this game, Zach Ertz is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.8 targets.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Jaxon Smith-Njigba u99.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Projection 92.8 (Under)

Best Odds

u99.5 -113

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u99.5 -113

u95.5 -114

u99.5 -115

u97.5 -117

With a 3-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.. Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The 7th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Seahawks this year (a measly 52.7 per game on average).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a remarkable decrease in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 4.6% figure.

-113 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Jacory Croskey-Merritt o9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 11.25 (Over)

Best Odds

o6.5 -118

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o9.5 -110

o6.5 -118

o7.5 -121

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 68.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been torched for the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (42.0) to running backs this year.

-118 at BetMGM

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Spread

69% picking Seattle

69% 69%

31% 31%

Total Picks SEA 600, WAS 267

Spread

SEA

WAS

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Washington Commanders Picks

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SEA @ WAS Picks

Consensus Picks

69% picking Seattle

Top User Picks

'Kazual12' is picking Washington to cover (+3.0)

'Kazual12' picks Seattle vs Washington to go Over (46.0)

'100towin' picks Seattle vs Washington to go Under (48.0)

'bayonne219a' picks Seattle vs Washington to go Over (46.0)

'bayonne219a' is picking Seattle to cover (-3.0)

'jwwong' is picking Seattle to cover (-3.0)

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