Washington Commanders
Picks

3rd in NFC East (3 - 5 - 0)

Next Game

SEASeattle

WASWashington

Sun, Nov 2 20:20 ET

SEA @ WAS Picks

NFL Picks

Score a Touchdown

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Score a Touchdown (Yes: +100)

Projection 0.63 (Yes)

Best Odds

+100

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

-120

+100

-115

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The model projects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the end zone in this contest (30.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.4% in games he has played).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has totaled far more air yards this year (125.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 93.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 57.6.. With an excellent 74.3% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba places among the most reliable receivers in football when it comes to WRs.

+100 at bet365

Passing Yards

Jayden Daniels o220.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Projection 244.53 (Over)

Best Odds

o220.5 -113

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o220.5 -113

o221.5 -115

o220.5 -115

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 67.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. The Seattle cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

-113 at DraftKings

Passing Yards

Sam Darnold u247.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Projection 236.41 (Under)

Best Odds

u247.5 -113

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u247.5 -113

u242.5 -115

u244.5 -117

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.. Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Seahawks this year (a measly 52.7 per game on average).. The projections expect Sam Darnold to throw 33.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 10th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Commanders, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.

-113 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Deebo Samuel o48.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Projection 73.43 (Over)

Best Odds

o44.5 -118

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o48.5 -111

o44.5 -118

o46.5 -115

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 67.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. The leading projections forecast Deebo Samuel Sr. to accrue 7.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 81st percentile among WRs.. Deebo Samuel Sr. has accrued significantly more air yards this year (45.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).

-118 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Kenneth Walker III o5.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Projection 9.83 (Over)

Best Odds

o5.5 -120

Pick made: 10 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o5.5 -120

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The Commanders defense has given up the 10th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (38.0) versus RBs this year.. The Commanders pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus RBs this year, conceding 8.38 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the league.. The Commanders linebackers profile as the 5th-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

-120 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Zach Ertz o35.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Projection 41.8 (Over)

Best Odds

o35.5 -112

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o35.5 -112

o35.5 -115

o35.5 -114

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 67.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. Zach Ertz's 89.9% Route% this season shows a noteable progression in his passing offense utilization over last season's 76.6% rate.. In this game, Zach Ertz is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.8 targets.

-112 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

AJ Barner o26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 29.81 (Over)

Best Odds

o26.5 -115

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o26.5 -115

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. This year, the weak Washington Commanders pass defense has been torched for a staggering 84.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 5th-highest rate in football.. This year, the shaky Commanders defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a colossal 9.69 yards.. The Commanders linebackers profile as the 5th-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

-115 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Jacory Croskey-Merritt o43.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 60.77 (Over)

Best Odds

o43.5 -110

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o43.5 -110

The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 46.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 67.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most among all teams this week.

-110 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Sam Darnold o3.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Projection 10.01 (Over)

Best Odds

o3.5 -120

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o3.5 -120

-120 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Kenneth Walker III o52.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 64.12 (Over)

Best Odds

o52.5 -110

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o52.5 -110

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to run on 45.6% of their chances: the 6th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects Kenneth Walker III to garner 15.4 carries this week, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Kenneth Walker III has grinded out 53.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (81st percentile).

-110 at BetMGM

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Spread

68% picking Seattle

68% 68%

32% 32%

Total Picks SEA 423, WAS 202

Spread

SEA

WAS

Spread

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Washington Commanders Picks

Next Game

SEA @ WAS Picks

Consensus Picks

68% picking Seattle

Top User Picks

'Kazual12' is picking Washington to cover (+3.0)

'Kazual12' picks Seattle vs Washington to go Over (46.0)

'bayonne219a' picks Seattle vs Washington to go Over (46.0)

'bayonne219a' is picking Seattle to cover (-3.0)

'jwwong' is picking Seattle to cover (-3.0)

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