Philadelphia Eagles

Picks

He’s been a touchdown machine in recent weeks, finishing with four TDs in his final three games. The Eagles activate him in the red zone in a number of ways, including some slick “chest pass” misdirection. San Francisco had a tough time with TEs, including giving up 10 touchdowns to the position. Fred Warner was their best coverage LB, he’s gone. Dee Winters the second best coverage LB, runs the risk of missing Saturday. 

The anytime touchdown prop for Dallas Goedert looks mispriced especially with wideouts AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith priced slightly lower. Goedert leads the Eagles with 11 TDs which is as many as Smith and Brown combined. He also had a team-high nine targets inside the 10-yard line, reeling in eight of them for touchdowns. Meanwhile, Brown and Smith combined for eight targets and four scores inside the 10-yard line. The 49ers are also worse at defending tight ends than wide receivers. They are 24th in the league in receptions allowed to TEs while allowing 10 TDs to the position.

Goedert has scored 11 TDs this season and the 49ers have allowed 10 TDs to the TE position already this year.

McCaffrey has scored 17 times this season and not gone two weeks without scoring all year.

The Eagles’ offense wasn’t at its best during the regular season under OC Kevin Patullo, but Jalen Hurts is a different player in January. He’s rested, confident, and the reigning Super Bowl MVP who consistently elevates his game when it matters most. Hurts’ rushing usage spikes in the playoffs, where he has 10 rushing touchdowns in nine career postseason games. If the ball is on the one- or two-yard line, it’s almost always his number getting called. His median TD price is -110 over his last 10 games. Getting plus money here is a strong buy. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles are just getting started.

Hurts’ passing stock dropped at the end of the year. He had a bad day against the Bills top-tier passing defense and then really didn’t need to push the ball deep in one-sided win over Washington and Vegas. The 49ers play a very passive style, don’t blitz, have no pass rush, bend but don’t break in terms of keeping everything in front of them. Hurts is great when given time to throw. Projections vary but majority come in above this low total with a ceiling as high as 233 yards. 

A quick peek at San Francisco's schedule shows the Niners haven’t been able to score their way to wins against quality defenses, with four of their five losses coming against teams ranking seventh or higher in defensive DVOA. The Eagles are sixth in the metric while allowing the ninth-lowest EPA per play and fifth-fewest points per game (19.1). San Francisco hasn’t been a defensive juggernaut, either, finishing 27th in defensive DVOA while allowing the ninth-highest EPA per play. Given their bounty of weapons and a solid offensive line that could receive a boost in left tackle Lane Johnson (foot), the Eagles will find success on offense.

The Eagles opened as 5-point home favorites in the Wild Card round, but the defending Super Bowl champs have been overrated all year. The Eagles 3-3 in their last six games against teams with a winning record, with only one of those victories coming by more than a field goal. San Francisco finished the regular season with one more win than Philly, despite facing a tougher schedule, and is also slightly higher in the DVOA ratings. Kyle Shanahan and an explosive 49ers' offense will be able to keep things competitive here.