Philadelphia Eagles

Picks

The Bears have won seven of their eight games by one-possession results and have sent out one of the worst statistical defenses in the NFL. A road date with the Eagles on a short week sets up to expose a fraudulent Chicago defense ranking 25th in defensive DVOA while allowing the sixth-most points per game and third-most yards per play. Of course, Philly has also been money at Lincoln Financial Field winning 15 of their past 16 and covering the number in nine of the past 12.

Odunze reeled in three catches for 53 yards last weekend, and he also had an 86-yard game earlier this month against the New York Giants. He's cashed the Over in two of his last three. Odunze is also averaging 64 yards per game on the road this season across six games compared to 53 yards per contest at home.

Williams cashed the Over in TDs last weekend, throwing for three of them. In fact, he’s hit the Over in touchdowns in two of his last four, also finding the end zone three times on November 2 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Birds just allowed Dak Prescott to throw for two TDS, and Philly is 22nd in most passing yards allowed. Williams should be able to generate points here after balling out in Week 12. 

Hurts threw for 289 yards and a touchdown in Week 12 despite the loss, completing 27 of 39 passes. The quarterback has only cashed the Over once in his last four contests, but he’s up against a Bears pass defense that ranks 21st in the league. 

D’Andre Swift’s fumble last week couldn’t have come at a worse time, and it opened the door for rookie Kyle Monangai. After the turnover, Monangai logged nine carries to Swift’s two and handled five red-zone attempts, punching in one of them. He’s been the more efficient red-zone option lately, with eight carries inside the 20 for three touchdowns over the last three games. Swift has zero TDs on six red-zone carries in that span. Monangai’s goal-line role is real, and his between-the-20s usage may now rise. He looks like RB 1B to Swift’s 1A this week, and his TD price is playable down to +200.

Monangai is picking up more and more touches as the Bears split work between he and Swift. In the past three games, he’s been Chicago’s go-to goal line back, scoring in each of those games. 

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1.