Philadelphia Eagles

Picks

Jack Bech was taken with the 58th pick in the draft after being a season-team All-Big 12 selection at TCU. The rookie didn't get many chances to contribute early in the season but had a career-high 82% snap share last week and finished with six receptions for 50 yards. Four of those receptions came in the fourth quarter after Kenny Pickett replaced an injured Geno Smith. It was clear that Bech has a rapport with the veteran QB and that should continue into this week with Pickett named the starter. We should also get a heavy passing game script from the Raiders on Sunday since they are 12.5-point underdogs against the Eagles.

I’m expecting the Eagles to show up on time Sunday afternoon and pull away from the Raiders. Las Vegas is turning to Kenny Pickett behind center for his first start of the season, and even with a three-game losing streak the Philly defense still ranks eighth in defensive DVOA and has allowed the ninth-fewest points per game. I also value this spread trading beneath the key number of 7.

The Eagles are force feeding Brown the football with double-digit targets in four consecutive games, and he’s hauled in 24 passes for 342 yards to hit triple-digit receiving yards in three straight. He’s averaged 14.3 yards per reception during the three-game heater, and the Raiders aren’t an intimidating opponent ranking 30th in PFF coverage grade while allowing the second-highest catch percentage and a healthy 7.97 yards per target to opposing wideouts.

It looks like Kenny Pickett will take on his former team with Geno Smith likely out. With Brock Bowers, you’re getting a player who never leaves the field — he logged a 100 percent snap share last week — and he’s the top option in a passing game that can’t run the ball. The matchup against the Eagles is baked into this number, as Bowers has been as short as -110 to score and typically sits around +165. He gets elite target share and has the ability to score from outside the red zone, so +200 or better is a strong price. He has three touchdowns over his last two games, accounting for 75 percent of his team’s scores.

Philadelphia has plenty to prove to the Linc faithful this Sunday and Las Vegas is the perfect opponent to get right. The Eagles were able to pick up yards against the Bolts defense but turnovers killed those drives. Las Vegas heads to a chilly Linc where sub-freezing temps, howling winds and possible snow await. On top of that, Geno Smith has a wet noodle for an arm and we could see former Eagles backup Kenny Pickett under center. This look-ahead line was as big as 13.5 but dipped after the MNF result.