Philadelphia Eagles
Picks

1st in NFC East (10 - 5 - 0)

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PHIPhiladelphia

BUFBuffalo

Sun, Dec 28 16:25 ET

PHI @ BUF Picks

NFL Picks

Spread

BUF -2.5 (-117)

Best Odds

-2.0 -108

Pick made: yesterday

-1.5 -110

-2.0 -108

-1.5 -104

-1.5 -110

-1.5 -107

The Eagles didn't pull away from the Washington Commanders in Week 16 until third-string QB Josh Johnson entered the game, and Philly ranked 27th in offensive DVOA while generating the ninth-lowest EPA per play over the prior six weeks. So, with the Bills rattling off four consecutive wins and sporting a 6-1 record at Highmark Stadium, I don't think the Eagles can put enough points on the board to cover the number in Week 17.

Passing Attempts

Jalen Hurts o25.5 Passing Attempts (-114)

Projection 28.61 (Over)

Best Odds

o24.5 -230

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o25.5 -130

o24.5 -230

o25.5 -114

o26.5 +105

Passing Yards

Jalen Hurts o189.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Projection 195.65 (Over)

Best Odds

o189.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o190.5 -111

o191.5 -110

o189.5 -114

The Philadelphia offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Saquon Barkley o11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 18.09 (Over)

Best Odds

o11.5 -110

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o13.5 -114

o11.5 -110

o12.5 -114

o12.5 -117

Saquon Barkley has run a route on 59.3% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.. In this game, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.5 targets.. Saquon Barkley has posted a staggering 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The Philadelphia offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.. Saquon Barkley rates as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 16.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Dallas Goedert o32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 40.23 (Over)

Best Odds

o32.5 -110

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o35.5 -110

o32.5 -110

o33.5 -114

The predictive model expects Dallas Goedert to total 5.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.. Dallas Goedert has accrued a monstrous 38.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among TEs.. The Philadelphia offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.. Dallas Goedert checks in as one of the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 41.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

James Cook III o11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 15.21 (Over)

Best Odds

o11.5 -110

Pick made: 15 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o11.5 -113

o11.5 -110

o12.5 -114

o11.5 -118

James Cook has accrued a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. When talking about pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year.. With a terrific 16.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (78th percentile) this year, James Cook has been among the top running backs in the pass game in the league.. James Cook's 91.9% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a noteable progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 84.7% mark.. The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (39.0) to RBs this year.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Saquon Barkley u83.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 70.02 (Under)

Best Odds

u84.5 -114

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u84.5 -114

u83.5 -110

u81.5 -114

u83.5 -115

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have just 124.2 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Eagles this year (only 54.9 per game on average).. Saquon Barkley has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (118.0).. Saquon Barkley's rushing efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a measly 3.86 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.48 rate last year.

-114 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

James Cook III u90.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 77.92 (Under)

Best Odds

u90.5 -110

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u89.5 -110

u90.5 -110

u87.5 -114

u89.5 -114

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see just 124.2 total plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the best DT corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Josh Allen o34.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 41.4 (Over)

Best Odds

o31.5 -114

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o33.5 -110

o34.5 -110

o31.5 -114

o33.5 -110

The predictive model expects the Bills to be the most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 48.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect Josh Allen to accrue 7.9 carries this week, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.. The predictive model expects Josh Allen to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack in this week's contest (26.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.8% in games he has played).. With a remarkable total of 33.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Josh Allen ranks as one of the leading rushing QBs in the league this year.. Josh Allen's 6.43 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a noteable gain in his rushing skills over last year's 5.65 rate.

-114 at FanDuel

Rushing Yards

Jalen Hurts o29.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 35.5 (Over)

Best Odds

o29.5 -110

Pick made: 15 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o31.5 -108

o29.5 -110

o30.5 -114

o30.5 -117

The projections expect the Eagles as the 7th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Jalen Hurts is predicted by the model to total the 2nd-most carries out of all quarterbacks with 7.7. . Accounting for 23.0% of his team's run game usage this year (95th percentile among QBs), Jalen Hurts's mobility marks him as a serious threat in Philadelphia's rushing attack.. The opposing side have rushed for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in football (144 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.. The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 30th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in regard to run defense.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Attempts

James Cook III u19.5 Rushing Attempts (-108)

Projection 16.62 (Under)

Best Odds

u19.5 -108

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u19.5 -108

u19.5 -115

u19.5 -114

u19.5 -108

-108 at DraftKings

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Spread

73% picking Buffalo

27% 27%

73% 73%

Total Picks PHI 83, BUF 230

Spread

PHI

BUF

Spread

+2.5 -131

-1.5 -103

Total

70% picking Philadelphia vs Buffalo to go Over

70% 70%

30% 30%

Total PicksPHI 135, BUF 59

Total

Over

Under

Total

43.0 -127

44 -120

Top User Picks

More Picks

Spread

'manwithnoname6' is picking Buffalo to cover (-2.5)

manwithnoname6 is #10 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Spread

PHI

BUF

Spread

+2.5 -131

-1.5 -103

Total

'manwithnoname6' picks Philadelphia vs Buffalo to go Under (43.5)

manwithnoname6 is #10 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

43.0 -127

44 -120

Spread

'Riverdawg' is picking Buffalo to cover (-2.5)

Riverdawg is #4 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (3-2-0) and +4900 units on the season.

Spread

PHI

BUF

Spread

+2.5 -131

-1.5 -103

Spread

'sycuan' is picking Philadelphia to cover (+3.0)

sycuan is #5 on picking games that Philadelphia is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +5850 units on the season.

Spread

PHI

BUF

Spread

+2.5 -131

-1.5 -103

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Philadelphia Eagles Picks

Next Game

PHI @ BUF Picks

Consensus Picks

73% picking Buffalo

70% picking Philadelphia vs Buffalo to go Over

Top User Picks

'manwithnoname6' is picking Buffalo to cover (-2.5)

'manwithnoname6' picks Philadelphia vs Buffalo to go Under (43.5)

'Riverdawg' is picking Buffalo to cover (-2.5)

'sycuan' is picking Philadelphia to cover (+3.0)

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Philadelphia Eagles
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