Philadelphia Eagles

Picks

At home in a game with strong scoring potential, getting Saquon Barkley near even money for a touchdown feels like a gift. Sure, it’s not 2024 Barkley, but this offense isn’t as bad as it looked in Week 10, and the Lions are more than capable of giving up points. Barkley topped 100 total yards last week against a tough Green Bay defense and appears fully past his Week 8 groin injury. He scored twice just two games ago against the Giants and has been priced as short as -220 for a touchdown this season. Getting him close to even money in a likely shootout is a great value play — especially on a card with plenty of longshot props.

Montgomery, who had 13 or fewer carries in seven of the eight games prior to Week 10, made the most of that extra involvement, taking those 15 runs 71 total yards – his second biggest rushing output of the season. Unlike past outings, he was involved in the opening scripts and took four handoffs in the first two offensive possessions. Running the ball is Detroit’s best plan of attack against the Eagles. Philadelphia does show weakness on the ground, sitting 25th in opponent success rate per handoff (44.3%), 21st in Run Defense DVOA at FTN, and 24th in run stop win rate at ESPN. Those all add up to an average of 4.4 yards allowed per carry (20th) and a Lions run game grinding out first downs. Montgomery’s player projections aren’t overwhelming by any means, with most sitting just north of his current rushing yards total. That said, those metrics aren’t accounting for the shift in philosophy under Campbell’s guidance.

Philadelphia’s vaunted pass rush looks like its back after laying dormant for most of the season, scoring 10 total sacks and increased QB pressures during its current three-game winning streak. Detroit’s offensive line will be tested on SNF after allowing Jared Goff to feel the sixth highest pressure rate against among qualified QBs. Goff runs a quick-hitting pass attack to begin with that keeps completions short. Now with Campbell taking over play calling, you can expect more handoffs from the Lions. Campbell snatched the playbook last week and Detroit ran on 48.5% of its snaps. That will keep the clock ticking with shorter gains, which is a solid recipe for Unders.