New York Jets

NFL Player Props

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.5%) versus tight ends this year (71.5%). As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the league.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 136.4 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week. The 8th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a staggering 59.5 per game on average). The projections expect Brenton Strange to accumulate 5.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs. Brenton Strange has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing game this year (17.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (10.5%). With a remarkable 3.4 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) this year, Brenton Strange has been among the leading pass-catching tight ends in the league.

Breece Hall has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (44.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (60.6%). Breece Hall's receiving performance has diminished this season, totaling just 2.1 adjusted receptions vs 3.6 last season. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the league.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 136.4 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week. The 8th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a staggering 59.5 per game on average). In this week's contest, Jakobi Meyers is projected by the projection model to rank in the 84th percentile among wideouts with 7.7 targets. With a remarkable 70.5% Adjusted Catch Rate (76th percentile) this year, Jakobi Meyers places among the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to wide receivers. As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's LB corps has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup QB Brady Cook this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are big underdogs in this week's contest, indicating much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. The leading projections forecast the Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL. John Metchie III's 71.5% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a meaningful gain in his receiving talent over last year's 65.4% mark.

Adonai Mitchell has gone over 3.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Isaiah Williams has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 3.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Parker Washington has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Bhayshul Tuten has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.