New York Jets

NFL Player Props

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. In this week's contest, Garrett Wilson is projected by our trusted projection set to land in the 98th percentile among wide receivers with 10.1 targets. The projections expect Garrett Wilson to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing offense in this game (34.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (27.9% in games he has played). Garrett Wilson rates as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 6.1 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 96th percentile. The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.7%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (70.7%).

The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are predicted by the predictive model to run only 62.0 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week. The Bills have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.7 plays per game. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

The Jets feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 9.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized). The predictive model expects the New York Jets to be the 4th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the model to see only 125.4 total plays run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week. Breece Hall profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in football among running backs, catching just 77.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 18th percentile. The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.9%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (78.9%).

This week, Dalton Kincaid is anticipated by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.2 targets. With an exceptional 18.8% Target% (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Dalton Kincaid places as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in football. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season. With a terrific 3.4 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) since the start of last season, Dalton Kincaid rates as one of the top TE receiving threats in football. The Jets safeties project as the 9th-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

James Cook's 14.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in football: 76th percentile for RBs. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season. James Cook's 100.0% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a remarkable gain in his pass-catching talent over last season's 84.7% mark. The Jets safeties project as the 9th-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

Keon Coleman has gone over 3.5 in 1 of his last 1 games.

Tyler Johnson has gone over 2.5 in 0 of his last 1 games.

Josh Reynolds has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 1 games.

Joshua Palmer has gone over 2.5 in 1 of his last 1 games.