New England Patriots

1st in AFC East (9 - 2 - 0)

Next Game

NENew England New England
at
Cincinnati CINCincinnati
Sun, Nov 23 13:00 ET

NE @ CIN Picks

NFL Picks
Score a Touchdown
Noah Fant logo Noah Fant Score a Touchdown (Yes: +350)
Best Odds
 +340 FanDuel
Pick made: 5 hours ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +320
 +325
 +340
 -
 +340

I’m always interested in high-priced tight end touchdown shots. Noah Fant ran the most routes and played the most snaps among Bengals TEs in Week 11, and he caught more passes (five) than any of their receivers. Since Mike Gesicki went down, Fant has posted two touchdowns and 14 catches over four games. The wrinkle is Gesicki’s return, as his practice window opened this week. Bringing him back now would be a bit rushed, and even if he’s activated, Fant has established a clear role with Joe Flacco — a quarterback Gesicki has played only two snaps with. Gesicki has just eight catches in six games, which makes an early position on Fant easier to justify. You can also wait for clarity, as Fant has closed around this price for a touchdown in four straight weeks. The Patriots are a Top-10 matchup for opposing TEs. 

Score a Touchdown
Chase Brown logo
Chase Brown Score a Touchdown (Yes: -105)
Projection 0.67 (Yes)
Best Odds
 -105 DraftKings
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -105
 -105
 -135
 -
 -113
The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.7% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.5 total plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
-105 at DraftKings
Passing Attempts
Joe Flacco logo
Joe Flacco o38.5 Passing Attempts (+103)
Projection 42.51 (Over)
Best Odds
o36.5 -140 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o38.5  -106
These are quick bet odds
 -
o37.5  -120
o36.5  -140
These are quick bet odds
o38.5  +103
The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.5 total plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.. In this game, Joe Flacco is expected by the projection model to total the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 41.9.
-140 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Joe Flacco logo
Joe Flacco o232.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 263.01 (Over)
Best Odds
o232.5 -114 FanDuel
Pick made: 11 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o235.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
o232.5  -114
o232.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o235.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.5 total plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest rate in the league against the Patriots defense this year (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).
-114 at FanDuel
Passing Yards
Drake Maye logo
Drake Maye u250.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 242.51 (Under)
Best Odds
u254.5 -112 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u254.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
u250.5  -114
u248.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u251.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
The Patriots are a heavy 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 52.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
-112 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Chase Brown logo
Chase Brown o24.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 38.95 (Over)
Best Odds
o24.5 -118 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o24.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.5 total plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.. This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has allowed a massive 87.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 5th-biggest rate in the league.
-118 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Tee Higgins logo
Tee Higgins o65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 81.98 (Over)
Best Odds
o65.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o69.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
o68.5  -114
o65.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o68.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.5 total plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has allowed the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a massive 8.77 yards.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Stefon Diggs logo
Stefon Diggs o51.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 60.2 (Over)
Best Odds
o51.5 -118 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o53.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
o52.5  -114
o51.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o52.5  -117
These are quick bet odds
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. In this game, Stefon Diggs is anticipated by the predictive model to position himself in the 87th percentile among WRs with 7.8 targets.. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.. Stefon Diggs has been one of the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 59.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.. This year, the anemic Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 7th-worst rate in the league.
-118 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Drake Maye logo
Drake Maye o23.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Projection 31.88 (Over)
Best Odds
o23.5 -118 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o23.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Patriots are a heavy 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots as the 3rd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 47.4% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This year, the deficient Bengals run defense has been gouged for a massive 166.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the most in the NFL.. The Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
-118 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Chase Brown logo
Chase Brown o58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 64.82 (Over)
Best Odds
o58.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o58.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.5 total plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.. The projections expect Chase Brown to earn 16.0 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has garnered 70.5% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.. Chase Brown grades out as one of the best running backs in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an outstanding 3.29 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 80th percentile.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds

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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

61% picking New England

61%
39%

Total Picks NE 304, CIN 194

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'ChOmP' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+8.0)

ChOmP is #1 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (7-0-0) and +5350 units on the season.

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123
Total

'ChOmP' picks New England vs Cincinnati to go Over (50.0)

ChOmP is #1 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (7-0-0) and +5350 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
50.0 -109
50.5 -115
Total

'Ohyarain' picks New England vs Cincinnati to go Over (50.0)

Ohyarain is #10 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
50.0 -109
50.5 -115
Spread

'Ohyarain' is picking New England to cover (-7.0)

Ohyarain is #10 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123
Total

'Jhusagic' picks New England vs Cincinnati to go Under (49.5)

Jhusagic is #4 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
50.0 -109
50.5 -115
Total

'fttrdoyle' picks New England vs Cincinnati to go Under (49.5)

fttrdoyle is #4 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
50.0 -109
50.5 -115
Spread

'fttrdoyle' is picking New England to cover (-7.0)

fttrdoyle is #4 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123
Spread

'Jhusagic' is picking New England to cover (-7.0)

Jhusagic is #4 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123
Spread

'Alexmaldonado' is picking New England to cover (-5.5)

Alexmaldonado is #5 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123
Total

'Alexmaldonado' picks New England vs Cincinnati to go Over (50.5)

Alexmaldonado is #5 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
50.0 -109
50.5 -115
Spread

'dixdixpa33' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+5.5)

dixdixpa33 is #6 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123
Total

'dixdixpa33' picks New England vs Cincinnati to go Under (51.0)

dixdixpa33 is #6 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
50.0 -109
50.5 -115
Spread

'dahnguyen' is picking New England to cover (-5.5)

dahnguyen is #7 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-4-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123
Total

'dahnguyen' picks New England vs Cincinnati to go Under (51.0)

dahnguyen is #7 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (6-4-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
50.0 -109
50.5 -115
Total

'Technique' picks New England vs Cincinnati to go Over (50.0)

Technique is #7 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
50.0 -109
50.5 -115
Spread

'Technique' is picking New England to cover (-7.0)

Technique is #7 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123
Spread

'roxwawy20' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+5.5)

roxwawy20 is #8 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123
Total

'roxwawy20' picks New England vs Cincinnati to go Over (51.0)

roxwawy20 is #8 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
50.0 -109
50.5 -115
Spread

'Kilimonster' is picking New England to cover (-8.0)

Kilimonster is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123
Spread

'CJONES1068' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+5.5)

CJONES1068 is #9 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
NE
CIN
Spread
-5.5 -167
+7.5 -123

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