New England Patriots

2nd in AFC East (4 - 3 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Nov 1 16:25 ET

NE @ MIA Picks

NFL Picks
Spread
New England Patriots image thumbnail NE -7.0 (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

New England QB Drake Maye paces the NFL in adjusted EPA per play over the past four weeks, and the Pats are third in offensive DVOA with an average of 31 points per game during the surge. Miami checks in 31st in offensive DVOA and 30th in defensive DVOA for the season, so with New England also having the benefit of extra rest and preparation time after playing Thursday Night Football in Week 7, the Dolphins are in tough and overmatched Sunday.

Rushing Yards
Ollie Gordon II logo
Ollie Gordon II o61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 65.19 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to run on 47.0% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.. The New England defensive tackles project as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Receiving Yards
A.J. Brown logo
A.J. Brown o54.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 64.79 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This week, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers with 7.5 targets.. A.J. Brown has posted a whopping 95.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among WRs.. A.J. Brown's 69.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks among the league leaders: 95th percentile for WRs.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. A.J. Brown grades out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 60.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
Receiving Yards
Malik Washington logo
Malik Washington o37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 47.41 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The Patriots pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.1%) vs. wide receivers this year (67.1%).. This year, the anemic Patriots defense has allowed the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a colossal 4.13 YAC.. The New England Patriots safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in defending receivers.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

56% picking New England

56%
44%

Total Picks NE 201, MIA 156

Spread
NE
MIA
Total

40% picking New England vs Miami to go Under

60%
40%

Total PicksNE 117, MIA 79

Total
Over
Under

NE @ MIA · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
New England Patriots image thumbnail
NE -6.5 spread
-8.51 PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
11.93% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
New England Patriots image thumbnail
NE -6.5 spread

PROJECTION

-8.51 PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
11.93% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-6.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL
New England Patriots image thumbnail Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
Under 44.0 Total
42.89 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
New England Patriots image thumbnail Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
Under 44.0 Total

PROJECTION

42.89 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.25% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u44.5 -112
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u182.5 Passing Yards
181.30 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
-12.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u182.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

181.30 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
-12.01% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see just 121.4 plays on offense called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 52.7 per game on average).. In this contest, Malik Willis is forecasted by the predictive model to have the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 29.3. . With a terrible tally of 158.0 adjusted passing yards per game (6th percentile), Malik Willis rates as one of the bottom passers in football this year.

u185.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o61.5 Rushing Yards
65.19 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
19.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o61.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

65.19 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
19.16% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to run on 47.0% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.. The New England defensive tackles project as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

o58.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o31.5 Rushing Yards
32.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
13.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o31.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

32.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
13.31% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to run on 47.0% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.. In this week's game, Malik Willis is anticipated by the predictive model to earn the 4th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 5.8. . Malik Willis isn't afraid to run the ball, making up 18.8% of his team's run game usage this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to QBs.. Malik Willis has averaged 22.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among QBs (76th percentile).. With an outstanding total of 2.46 yards-after-contact (82nd percentile), Malik Willis has been as one of the top running QBs in the NFL this year.

o30.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
A.J. Brown logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
A. Brown (WR) o54.5 Receiving Yards
64.79 OVER PROJECTION
+10.3 DIFFERENCE
25.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
A.J. Brown logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
A. Brown (WR) o54.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

64.79 OVER PROJECTION
+10.3 DIFFERENCE
25.48% EV

ANALYSIS

This week, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers with 7.5 targets.. A.J. Brown has posted a whopping 95.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among WRs.. A.J. Brown's 69.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks among the league leaders: 95th percentile for WRs.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. A.J. Brown grades out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 60.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

o54.5 -113
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o37.5 Receiving Yards
47.41 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o37.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

47.41 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The Patriots pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.1%) vs. wide receivers this year (67.1%).. This year, the anemic Patriots defense has allowed the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a colossal 4.13 YAC.. The New England Patriots safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in defending receivers.

o35.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Rhamondre Stevenson logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Stevenson (RB) o16.5 Receiving Yards
19.37 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
14.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Rhamondre Stevenson logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Stevenson (RB) o16.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

19.37 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
14.84% EV

ANALYSIS

Rhamondre Stevenson has run a route on 52.7% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.. In this contest, Rhamondre Stevenson is predicted by the model to rank in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.2 targets.. When talking about air yards, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks in the towering 84th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a remarkable 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. Rhamondre Stevenson has compiled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (26.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).

o16.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o30.5 Receiving Yards
31.31 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
-9.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o30.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

31.31 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
-9.58% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Greg Dulcich's 68.8% Route% this season represents a meaningful growth in his passing offense workload over last season's 49.2% mark.. In this week's contest, Greg Dulcich is forecasted by the projections to place in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.3 targets.. After averaging 17.0 air yards per game last year, Greg Dulcich has been rising this year, now sitting at 24.0 per game.. Greg Dulcich's 41.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season signifies a remarkable boost in his receiving ability over last season's 29.0 mark.

o30.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u28.5 Passing Attempts
27.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
4.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u28.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

27.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
4.57% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see just 121.4 plays on offense called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 52.7 per game on average).. In this contest, Malik Willis is forecasted by the predictive model to have the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 29.3.

u28.5 -120
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions
19.68 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

19.68 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.98% EV

ANALYSIS

The Patriots are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 53.2% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects the Patriots to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Dolphins, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.8 per game) this year.

u20.5 -107
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o16.5 Passing Completions
17.57 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
9.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o16.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

17.57 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
9.76% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the league versus the New England Patriots defense this year (71.4% Adjusted Completion%).. The New England Patriots safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in defending receivers.

o16.5 -115
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A.J. Brown logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
A. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.47 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
A.J. Brown logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
A. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.47 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.89% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. A.J. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 30.0% this year, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.. A.J. Brown has posted a whopping 95.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among WRs.. A.J. Brown's 69.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks among the league leaders: 95th percentile for WRs.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

+140
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.5% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a colossal 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the highest rate in the NFL.. This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a colossal 2.33 TDs through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-largest rate in the league.. The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

+300
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
0.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
0.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the league versus the New England Patriots defense this year (71.4% Adjusted Completion%).

+130
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Rhamondre Stevenson logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Stevenson (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Rhamondre Stevenson logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Stevenson (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.86% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. When talking about air yards, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks in the towering 84th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a remarkable 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. Rhamondre Stevenson has been in the 88th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a staggering 17.8 figure this year.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. Rhamondre Stevenson grades out in the 81st percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.14 per game.

-115
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-12% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. Hunter Henry has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.2% this year, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among TEs.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. Hunter Henry's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 73.2% to 90.4%.. This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a colossal 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the highest rate in the NFL.

+185
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-27.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-27.54% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the league versus the New England Patriots defense this year (71.4% Adjusted Completion%).

+255
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.70 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-11.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.70 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-11.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The New England Patriots safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in defending receivers.

o0.5 -140
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  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
New England Patriots image thumbnail
NE -6.5 spread
-8.51 PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
11.93% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
New England Patriots image thumbnail
NE -6.5 spread

PROJECTION

-8.51 PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
11.93% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-6.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL
New England Patriots image thumbnail Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
Under 44.0 Total
42.89 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
New England Patriots image thumbnail Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
Under 44.0 Total

PROJECTION

42.89 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.25% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u44.5 -112
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u182.5 Passing Yards
181.30 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
-12.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u182.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

181.30 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
-12.01% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see just 121.4 plays on offense called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 52.7 per game on average).. In this contest, Malik Willis is forecasted by the predictive model to have the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 29.3. . With a terrible tally of 158.0 adjusted passing yards per game (6th percentile), Malik Willis rates as one of the bottom passers in football this year.

u185.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o61.5 Rushing Yards
65.19 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
19.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o61.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

65.19 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
19.16% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to run on 47.0% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.. The New England defensive tackles project as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

o58.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o31.5 Rushing Yards
32.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
13.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o31.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

32.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
13.31% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to run on 47.0% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.. In this week's game, Malik Willis is anticipated by the predictive model to earn the 4th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 5.8. . Malik Willis isn't afraid to run the ball, making up 18.8% of his team's run game usage this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to QBs.. Malik Willis has averaged 22.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among QBs (76th percentile).. With an outstanding total of 2.46 yards-after-contact (82nd percentile), Malik Willis has been as one of the top running QBs in the NFL this year.

o30.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
A.J. Brown logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
A. Brown (WR) o54.5 Receiving Yards
64.79 OVER PROJECTION
+10.3 DIFFERENCE
25.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
A.J. Brown logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
A. Brown (WR) o54.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

64.79 OVER PROJECTION
+10.3 DIFFERENCE
25.48% EV

ANALYSIS

This week, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers with 7.5 targets.. A.J. Brown has posted a whopping 95.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among WRs.. A.J. Brown's 69.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks among the league leaders: 95th percentile for WRs.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. A.J. Brown grades out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 60.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

o54.5 -113
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RECEIVING YARDS
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o37.5 Receiving Yards
47.41 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o37.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

47.41 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The Patriots pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.1%) vs. wide receivers this year (67.1%).. This year, the anemic Patriots defense has allowed the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a colossal 4.13 YAC.. The New England Patriots safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in defending receivers.

o35.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS
Rhamondre Stevenson logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Stevenson (RB) o16.5 Receiving Yards
19.37 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
14.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Rhamondre Stevenson logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Stevenson (RB) o16.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

19.37 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
14.84% EV

ANALYSIS

Rhamondre Stevenson has run a route on 52.7% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.. In this contest, Rhamondre Stevenson is predicted by the model to rank in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.2 targets.. When talking about air yards, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks in the towering 84th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a remarkable 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. Rhamondre Stevenson has compiled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (26.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).

o16.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o30.5 Receiving Yards
31.31 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
-9.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o30.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

31.31 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
-9.58% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Greg Dulcich's 68.8% Route% this season represents a meaningful growth in his passing offense workload over last season's 49.2% mark.. In this week's contest, Greg Dulcich is forecasted by the projections to place in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.3 targets.. After averaging 17.0 air yards per game last year, Greg Dulcich has been rising this year, now sitting at 24.0 per game.. Greg Dulcich's 41.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season signifies a remarkable boost in his receiving ability over last season's 29.0 mark.

o30.5 -115
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u28.5 Passing Attempts
27.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
4.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u28.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

27.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
4.57% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see just 121.4 plays on offense called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 52.7 per game on average).. In this contest, Malik Willis is forecasted by the predictive model to have the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 29.3.

u28.5 -120
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions
19.68 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

19.68 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.98% EV

ANALYSIS

The Patriots are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 53.2% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects the Patriots to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Dolphins, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.8 per game) this year.

u20.5 -107
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o16.5 Passing Completions
17.57 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
9.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o16.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

17.57 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
9.76% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the league versus the New England Patriots defense this year (71.4% Adjusted Completion%).. The New England Patriots safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in defending receivers.

o16.5 -115
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A.J. Brown logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
A. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.47 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
A.J. Brown logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
A. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.47 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.89% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. A.J. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 30.0% this year, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.. A.J. Brown has posted a whopping 95.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among WRs.. A.J. Brown's 69.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks among the league leaders: 95th percentile for WRs.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

+140
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.5% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a colossal 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the highest rate in the NFL.. This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a colossal 2.33 TDs through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-largest rate in the league.. The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

+300
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
0.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
0.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the league versus the New England Patriots defense this year (71.4% Adjusted Completion%).

+130
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Rhamondre Stevenson logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Stevenson (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Rhamondre Stevenson logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
R. Stevenson (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.86% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. When talking about air yards, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks in the towering 84th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a remarkable 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. Rhamondre Stevenson has been in the 88th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a staggering 17.8 figure this year.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. Rhamondre Stevenson grades out in the 81st percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.14 per game.

-115
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-12% EV

ANALYSIS

Right now, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots.. Hunter Henry has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.2% this year, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among TEs.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. Hunter Henry's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 73.2% to 90.4%.. This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a colossal 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the highest rate in the NFL.

+185
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-27.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-27.54% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the league versus the New England Patriots defense this year (71.4% Adjusted Completion%).

+255
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INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.70 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-11.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.70 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-11.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The New England Patriots safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in defending receivers.

o0.5 -140
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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'dglsgow' is picking Miami to cover (+7.5)

dglsgow is #7 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4400 units on the season.

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'qlh' is picking New England to cover (-7.5)

qlh is #8 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'qlh' picks New England vs Miami to go Under (44.5)

qlh is #8 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'TIPOF-THE-SWORD' is picking New England to cover (-7.5)

TIPOF-THE-SWORD is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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