New England Patriots

Picks

TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson are splitting the backfield, but their roles have become more defined. Stevenson has been more involved as a pass catcher, while Henderson has handled the heavier rushing workload, with 22 carries over the last two games compared to just 15 for Stevenson. Henderson has also taken over the high-leverage touches. Since Week 10, he has 13 red-zone carries to Stevenson’s four, including six attempts from inside the five-yard line versus only two for Stevenson. That kind of usage is hard to ignore. Henderson should see at least 60% of the carries and continue to dominate the early-down goal-line work. At anything to +110 for a touchdown, this is a price worth playing.

The cold conditions don’t help put points on the board, but we also have two solid defenses going to work in the Wild Card Round. Los Angeles’ zone-centric schemes have bottled up passing attacks and kept explosive plays at bay, with the Bolts giving up the second fewest receptions of 20 yards or more on the season. That could dull the Patriots’ downfield plans, with QB Drake Maye leading the league's second-most “explosive” air assault. As for New England, it also does a great job holding rival QBs in check. The Patriots rank Top 10 in EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per dropback, while giving up the eighth fewest receptions of 20+ yards. With both passing games shortened and neither team wanting to press for fear of turnovers, I see both offenses attacking on the ground. That keeps gains shorter and the clock ticking, which is a perfect recipe for Unders.