New England Patriots

Picks

The Patriots have leaned on Stevenson this postseason with 68% of the backfield carries while playing 72.5% of the offensive snaps. As a result, he's cleared this total in all three postseason contests, and he’s also ran for at least 50 yards in six of seven games out of the New England bye while piling up 5.9 yards per tote. Seattle sends out an elite defense, but so did the other three teams New England beat this postseason.

Smith-Njigba registered 92 yards or more in 14 of 19 games for the year with a high-end 76.3 catch percentage, 11.7 aDoT and 35.7% target share. Plus, the New England defense played the easiest schedule by DVOA while ranking 31st in the metric against No. 1 wide receivers, and Smith-Njigba is the best wideout they’ve faced all season.

Kupp finished the regular season with 47 receptions for 593 yards, serving as an integral piece for Sam Darnold and this Seahawks offense. The veteran has done his part in the playoffs as well, cashing the Over in catches in both of Seattle’s games. Kupp compiled five grabs in the blowout victory over the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round. He then hauled in four catches in the NFC Championship against his former team, the Los Angeles Rams.

In his first game off IR after missing four games, he played more snaps than Stefon Diggs and, despite finishing with just two catches, accounted for 20% of the team’s receptions and 59% of the passing yards. His pre-injury volume is easy to forget, but he saw 42 targets over his previous six games (seven per game) and led all New England pass catchers with a 22.2% target share, ahead of Diggs (4.5 targets per game) and Hunter Henry (3.5). A negative game script and forecasted perfect weather only add to the appeal.

Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in pace which will lead to fewer offensive plays and tackles across the board. Patriots safety Jaylinn Hawkins has finished with fewer than 4.5 solo and assisted tackles in his last five games. Hawkins primarily lines up at deep safety and I'm expecting a conservative offensive gameplan from Seattle with few deep throws for Sam Darnold.

Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in pace which will lead to fewer offensive plays and tackles across the board. Seahawks linebacker Ernest Jones IV has finished with fewer than 8.5 tackles in four consecutive games and is averaging 6.0 total tackles per game during that span.

Sam Darnold has thrown 11 interceptions in his last 13 games with most of those coming on short and intermediate throws in the middle of the field. Marcus Jones primarily covers receivers in the slot which leads to him shadowing inside routes. Jones has recorded a team-high four interceptions and 15 passes defended during the regular season and playoffs. I wouldn't put a full unit on this longshot bet but it's worth a sprinkle at +600.

Drake Maye has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long with his receivers struggling to get separation. The Patriots QB was sacked 47 times in the regular season and has absorbed another 15 sacks in the playoffs. He'll take another beating in the Super Bowl with the Seahawks boasting strong coverage and a fierce pass rush. Seattle rotates four edge rushers so it's hard to bet on any one player. That said, DeMarcus Lawrence has seen the highest snap share since Week 15 and has been the most productive. The veteran has picked up a sack in three of his last four games while logging 17 pressures.

Seattle DT Byron Murphy II might have been the biggest Pro Bowl snub this year. He tied for the team lead with seven sacks during the regular season while ranking seventh among all interior linemen in QB pressures. Murphy usually lines up at right DT which gives him a favorable matchup against LG Jared Wilson. The rookie is the weak link in the Pats offensive line and has a pass blocking grade of 42.8, which ranks 75th among 81 qualifying guards. Drake Maye has been sacked 15 times in the playoffs and Murphy should add to that at Super Bowl 60.

We finally get Shaheed facing a man-centric scheme in Super Bowl LX. New England runs man at a Top 10 rate and Shaheed will have plenty of one-on-one opportunities, especially with WR1 Jaxson Smith-Njigba drawing extra attention. Shaheed’s projections for SBLX all sit north of his receiving yards prop with a ceiling closer to 30 yards. The last time he faced a defense that ran man as much as the Pats, he torched the New York Giants for 114 yards as a member of the New Orleans Saints in Week 5.

My first bet for Super Bowl LX was Seattle moneyline when odds hit the board two weeks ago. The Seahawks feel like the right side, considering the Patriots have never taken on a foe that can score and shut down scoring like Seattle. New England’s path to glory needs high-variance occurrences, like turnovers or scores from the defense/special teams. It the Seahawks keep it simple, they win Super Bowl LX.

The Pats have contained running backs on the ground but have been vulnerable through the air. They allowed the fifth-most receptions against RBs during the regular season. That bodes well for Seahawks backup RB George Holani who has seen his snaps increase after Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in the Divisional Round. Holani will get plenty of reps on passing downs since he's a better blocker than Kenneth Walker III. Holani reeled in three of four targets for 27 yards in the Conference Championship.

Kenneth Walker III shredded San Francisco's brutal defense in the Divisional Round but has struggled against strong run defenses which the Patriots have. The Pats held opposing running backs to 77.1 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry during the regular season — both numbers good for fifth-best in the NFL. They've been even better in the playoffs, holding RBs to 38.7 rushing yards per game on 2.4 ypa. Walker was limited to 62 yards on 19 carries against the Rams in the NFC Conference Championship. He had seven regular season games against teams in the top 10 in defensive rush success rate and was held below 70 yards and 4.0 yards per rush in five of those contests. 

Patriots QB Drake Maye has a longest rush of 14+ yards in five of his last seven games. He's been flushed out of the pocket and forced to make plays with his legs due to poor pass protection. That should be the case in the Super Bowl with Seattle boasting the sixth-highest pressure rate in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks scrambled 43 times against the Seahawks during the regular season — the second-highest number in the league.

Henry logged 45+ receiving yards in five of his last seven regular season games before racking up 64 yards in the Wild Card Round. He had just here catches for 17 total yards over the last two rounds but should bounce back here. Seattle's stingy defense struggles against tight ends, allowing the fifth-most receptions (105) and the sixth-most yards (1,080) to the position during the regular season. In the playoffs, the Seahawks gave up 59 yards to 49ers TE Jake Tonges and 62 yards to Rams TE Colby Parkinson. The Seahawks play zone at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL and Henry had the fourth-highest receiving grade among tight ends against zone coverage per Pro Football Focus.

The red-zone matchup isn’t ideal for Rhamondre Stevenson, but two things are hard to ignore: the price and the workload. This is a strong number for a back projected to handle 80% or more of the carries. While the Patriots haven’t spent much time in the red zone this postseason, Stevenson has dominated the backfield, accounting for roughly eight of every 10 running back opportunities. TreVeyon Henderson has been largely phased out, as the coaching staff continues to lean on the veteran in high-leverage spots. That trust was clear against Denver, where Stevenson logged 25 carries compared to just three for Henderson.

This is my moonshot Super Bowl touchdown pick. Elijah Arroyo sat out the NFC Championship and hasn’t played since Week 14, which has caused his role to be largely forgotten. Before the bye, he saw five red-zone targets over seven games and was a real part of the offense when healthy. While AJ Barner has taken over as the No. 1 tight end, Arroyo could still see around 40% of the snaps and run roughly 30% of the routes. He’s priced like a non-factor, yet he’s targeted on nearly one of every five routes and owns a similar air-yard share to Barner. Per the Covers projections, he stands out as the best +EV touchdown play on the board.

With that caution in mind, and the fact that Sam Darnold is sneaky fast, I could see the Seattle QB opting to take off when no one is open and the pocket collapses -rather than force a throw. Darnold’s projections between 9 and 12 yards rushing.

It’s fitting that a San Francisco son and former Stanford star find the end zone in Santa Clara. And it’s absolutely fitting that a guy who scored a TD with the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51 get a second shot at a Lombardi as a member of the very same team that denied him back in 2017. Seahawks have shown weaknesses to TEs this season and Pats love their 12 personnel. 

I've already got a little on Rashid Shaheed for MVP at 50/1, and that means I like his chances of breaking a big play or two Sunday, while hopefully taking one to the house at +350. His role on special teams is difference-making as he has two kickoff-return TDs and one punt-return TD in his 11 games with the Hawks. He can get behind defenses, and if Christian Gonzalez is fixated on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sam Darnold might be able to spring the speedster. He might not get six targets, but he will get one or two deepshots that could change the game.

Hollins missed four games after landing on the shelf following Week 16, but in the six games prior, he led the team with seven targets per game. He also logged more snaps in Week 16 and the conference championship than any other New England Patriots wide receiver, signaling clear trust when he’s healthy. The Seattle Seahawks have allowed just five rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs all season, and Matthew Stafford showed last week that this defense can be attacked through the air. It’s a steep price, but one that makes sense for a receiver who should be competing for the team lead in targets.

The Seahawks have only allowed five rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs across 19 games, and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is a threat on the ground with four rushing scores during the regular season and another in the AFC title game. I’m anticipating Seattle giving the New England rushing attack trouble in the red zone, and Maye needing to call his own number or scramble for a score in Super Bowl LX.

A.J. Barner has multiple paths to pay dirt against the Patriots. He caught six touchdowns during the regular season and also rushed one in, with the 23-year-old tight end frequently moonlighting in quarterback-sneak and short-yardage situations.

Here’s to hoping we can get just one yard from Jake Bobo's “Open Arms” in Super Bowl LX. Bobo caught two balls in the regular season, but in two postseason outings, the 6-foot-4 receiver has been targeted three times for two catches, one of which was a 17-yard touchdown in the NFC Championship Game. Bobo, utilized more for his run blocking, is a sneaky option in Klint Kubiak’s play-action schemes and has shown good hands and solid route running in his limited usage.

He’s been especially huge for the Patriots in the playoffs, but despite reclaiming the RB1 role, he’s yet to find the end zone in the tournament. He finished the regular season with at least one tuddy in three straight, crossing the goal line a collective six times in those outings. We’re seeing the sweetest ATTD price on Rhamondre in quite a while, with his touchdown odds around +135 in the past month. Player projections for Super Bowl LX put a Stevenson touchdown between 0.49 and 0.83, with my number at 0.59. That makes the +160 return on a Big Game strike very appealing, especially with the way he’s blossomed as a receiving threat over the past eight games.

Stevenson has cleared his rushing total in eight straight games, and despite some playoff adjustments, the market didn’t move his number after a 25-carry, 71-yard effort in the snow against Denver. That’s a surprising lack of respect for a back who has dominated the workload. Stevenson accounts for 77% of New England’s running back rushing yards this postseason and handled 90% of the RB opportunities versus the Broncos. If the Patriots run the ball 25+ times again, it’s almost all going through him. He’s already topped this number against elite run defenses in the Los Angeles Chargers (4th in EPA/rush), Houston Texans (3rd), and Denver Broncos (8th). The Seattle Seahawks are a tough matchup, but Stevenson has faced the best and continues to earn more trust each week. In a competitive game script, he should be extremely busy.

Maye broke off big gains with his legs versus the Los Angeles Chargers (37-yard long) and Denver Broncos (28-yard long) and has recorded a run of at least 14 yards in four of his last six games going back to Week 15’s showdown with the Buffalo Bills – another stingy pass defense. The Seahawks haven’t faced a quarterback as mobile as Maye in a long time. You’d have to go back to a Week 9 matchup with Jayden Daniels. Since then, the Seahawks have defended a slew of pocket passers and veteran QBs, yet plenty of those less-than-spry passers picked up significant gains on the ground. 

The Seahawks have the fifth-best DVOA (regular season and playoffs) since that advanced stat has been tracked back to 1978. The Patriots aren't on that level and have benefited from a weak schedule. Drake Maye has done a great job despite being surrounded by subpar talent but that's been exposed in the playoffs with New England averaging just 4.3 yards per play. Maye will be pummeled by a Seattle stop unit that led the league in defensive EPA. On other side of the ball, Sam Darnold is playing the best football of his career and is surrounded by weapons in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Kenneth Walker III. They'll put up enough points to cover this spread.

Sam Darnold threw for 4,048 yards in the regular season despite often playing with a positive game script. He went ballistic in the NFC Conference Championship, completing 25-of-36 passes for 346 yards. New England is stout against the run so Seattle will likely air it out against a defense that ranked 15th in dropback success rate. The Pats haven't allowed many passing yards over the last month but have often played in poor weather while facing a slew of terrible QBs including Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, and Jarret Stidham. They'll have a much tougher time containing Darnold who was named a Pro Bowler for the second-straight year.

This a very modest number given his body of work. He cleared this mark in 14 of 17 regular-season games, averaging 258.4 yards per game, so don't let his playoffs numbers throw you off the scent. With no winter weather in San Francisco, Maye should resemble the MVP-level passer he was all season. Seattle’s defense has allowed big games recently, including 374 and 457 yards to Stafford and 277 to Brock Purdy. The Patriots’ schedule gets criticized, but Seattle’s recent quarterback competition hasn’t exactly been elite.
 
 
 

The Seahawks' offense is clicking on all cylynders with 41 and 31 points scored in two playoff games. While their defense will get a lot of praise coming into the game, they're vulnerable to getting lit up as we just saw the Rams put up 479 yards of offense on them. As for the Patriots, winter weather and poor quarterback play by the opponent has resulted in low-scoring games during their playoff run, but that changes here with Sam Darnold in good form and normal conditions expected in San Francisco.

Kenneth Walker has been going off in the receiving yards department in the Seattle Seahawks’ most important stretch of the season. Not only has he topped this mark in four of his last five games, he’s also proving to have a high ceiling as he’s averaging 36.8 receiving yards in this five-game span. With Zach Charbonnet out for the season, Walker will have heavy workload vs a Patriots team that allowed the sixth most receptions to running backs in the regular season.

Stevenson is coming off a 25-carry game and has been the clear focal point of the offense since Week 18. Over that four-game stretch, he has topped 320 rushing yards and cleared this number in every game, including matchups against three elite defenses. The workload is all his, with Henderson reduced to an afterthought, as Stevenson handled 90% of the RB opportunities against the Broncos. Even if Seattle sells out to stop the run, Stevenson has already proven he can move the pile versus the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos.
 
 
 

The Patriots’ run stop is healthy and shutting the door on opponent running backs in the playoffs. Mike Vrabel’s game plan will be to eliminate the Seahawks ground game and put the Super Bowl on Sam Darnold, attacking the Seahawks QB with blitzes. With Zach Charbonnet out, George Holani has stepped up as the RB2/third-down back and drew four targets for three receptions and 27 yards in the NFC title game. He now has two weeks to work within the offense and get used to the increased involvement. New England has allowed the seventh most targets and fifth receptions to RBs this season. 

Drake Maye is in a tough spot against this Seattle pass rush that can generate pressure with just a four-man rush. Henry is Maye’s pressure release in short yardage and also his best receiving option versus zone coverage, which Seattle runs at the second highest rate. Henry can also pick up yards after the catch and the Seahawks have allowed the sixth most YAC. Seattle is also giving up the fifth most targets and receptions to tight ends, panning out to the sixth most yards allowed to TEs in the NFL. Projections for Henry sit as high as 46 yards from the Patriots tight end in Super Bowl LX.

Seattle finished with the third-highest, single-season DVOA dating back to the 2018 campaign and then hung 41 and 31 points on the board in their first two playoff games while ranking first in EPA per play. New England hasn’t faced an offense as complete as the Seahawks, and the Pats have had their own offensive struggles the past three weeks with just five offensive touchdowns while ranking 10th of the 14 postseason teams in EPA per play. I’m happy to lay up to -5.5 with Seattle.

Darnold now has two weeks to heal up from oblique injury and threw the ball 36 times for 25 completions vs. Rams. Darnold has played a lot of zone-centric schemes in the last 10 games. Now faces man-heavy Pats secondary. He's No. 3 in completion % vs. man and 13th in catchable pass rate vs man (compared to 17th and 30th vs zone in those stats). Darnold has completed less than 20 passes only twice in the past seven games and one of those Unders was playing hurt against 49ers in Div Rnd.

Shaheed has been tamed by a lot of zone defenses since coming to Seattle but faces his first man-centic secondary in New England at the perfect time. He's a deep ball threat with great speed and sepration and can take the top off this Pats defense. New England will double JSN as much as it can, which leaves Shaheed in single coverage and very live to catch off a big gain. He's coming off a 51-yard reception in the NFC title game and the last time he faced a team that runs man as much as the Patriots, he went for 114 yards including an 87-yard home run.

Shaheed is a home run threat and faces a man-heavy scheme from the Patriots, which also him to utilize his speed and seperation. Seattle is also using the WR in the running game with tricky handoffs. He has options on how to get inside the end zone.

Since being traded to Seattle, Shaheed has faced only zone-heavy defenses (eight opponents rank between 1st to 15th in zone usage). He's much better vs. man coverage, which the Patriots use at the 6th highest rate. New England also allows average of 42.7 ypg to WR3. Shaheed's biggest day of the season came when the Saints played the Giants (7th in man), with 114 yards.

After the New England Patriots’ pop-gun run to the Big Game - in which their offense struggled against quality defenses - they once again find themselves against a top-tier stop unit. The Patriots have posted just 12 and 13 first downs in their last two postseason games while averaging 3.2 and 3.9 yards per play in those contests. Quarterback Drake Maye has been limited in his production while absorbing 10 total sacks. Seattle’s defense is tops in the land with a vaunted pass rush that ranked among the best in the NFL in pressure rate, sacks, QB hits, and hurries despite blitzing at one of the lowest rates. On top of that, the Seahawks offense has been humming in the tournament, torching the 49ers for 41 points and hanging 31 points on the Rams. New England hasn’t faced a team this complete… well, all season.