New England Patriots
Picks

1st in AFC East (10 - 2 - 0)

Next Game

at

Mon, Dec 1 20:15 ET

NYG @ NE Picks

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NE -7.5 (-103)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 days ago

The Giants haven’t won on the road all season, and the Pats have rolled off nine straight wins with quarterback Drake Maye pacing the NFL in adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage during the run. Plus, New York entered Week 12 ranked 28th in defensive DVOA and has allowed the third-most points per game.

Passing Yards

Drake Maye u244.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Projection 220.42 (Under)

Best Odds

u244.5 -113

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u244.5 -113

u244.5 -114

u241.5 -115

u242.5 -110

The Patriots are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

-113 at DraftKings

Passing Yards

Jaxson Dart u208.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Projection 188.48 (Under)

Best Odds

u212.5 -125

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u208.5 -112

u205.5 -114

u212.5 -125

u207.5 -115

Right now, the 4th-least pass-focused team in the league (56.9% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Giants.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The predictive model expects Jaxson Dart to attempt 31.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New England's collection of LBs has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.

Receiving Yards

TreVeyon Henderson o14.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 19.85 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 19 hours ago

EV Model Rating

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 8th-best in football this year.. The New York Giants safeties profile as the 8th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Tyrone Tracy Jr. o14.0 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 19.19 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 11 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The Giants are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The Giants have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 55.0 plays per game.. The New York offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.. The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (87.3%) to RBs this year (87.3%).

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Wan'Dale Robinson u59.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 55.76 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 16 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Right now, the 4th-least pass-focused team in the league (56.9% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Giants.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Wan'Dale Robinson's 68.0% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a substantial decrease in his pass-catching skills over last season's 72.0% figure.. Wan'Dale Robinson's ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this year, accumulating a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.87 mark last year.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New England's collection of LBs has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.

Receiving Yards

Theo Johnson o31.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 34.47 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

The Giants are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The Giants have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 55.0 plays per game.. The New York offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a massive 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 8th-worst in the NFL.. The Patriots pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.5%) to TEs this year (79.5%).

-113 at Caesars

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs o47.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 50.77 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

This week, Stefon Diggs is projected by the projections to slot into the 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.4 targets.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 8th-best in football this year.. Stefon Diggs profiles as one of the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 59.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.. Stefon Diggs's 83.7% Adjusted Catch% this season marks an impressive gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 73.7% figure.. This year, the porous Giants defense has been torched for a massive 163.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 7th-most in the NFL.

-117 at Caesars

Rushing Yards

Drake Maye o20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 30.53 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 16 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The Patriots are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. The projections expect the New England Patriots as the 5th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.0% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The Giants defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 5.73 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Giants safeties rank as the 32nd-worst unit in football this year in regard to run defense.

Rushing Yards

Jaxson Dart o27.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 33.78 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 23 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The projections expect the Giants to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.1% run rate.. The Giants have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 55.0 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Jaxson Dart is projected by the projections to earn the 4th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 6.7.

-114 at FanDuel

Rushing Yards

Tyrone Tracy Jr. o47.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 51.31 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 11 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The projections expect the Giants to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.1% run rate.. The Giants have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 55.0 plays per game.

-114 at FanDuel

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Total

61% picking N.Y. Giants vs New England to go Over

61% 61%

39% 39%

Total PicksNYG 151, NE 97

Total

Over

Under

Total

Top User Picks

More Picks

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'gordon2_4' is picking New England to cover (-7.5)

gordon2_4 is #10 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (7-5-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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NYG

NE

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'gordon2_4' picks N.Y. Giants vs New England to go Under (46.5)

gordon2_4 is #10 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (7-5-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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'Manning2008SB' is picking New England to cover (-7.5)

Manning2008SB is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (10-2-0) and +5700 units on the season.

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NYG

NE

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'Manning2008SB' picks N.Y. Giants vs New England to go Under (46.5)

Manning2008SB is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (10-2-0) and +5700 units on the season.

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'Alexmaldonado' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (+7.5)

Alexmaldonado is #6 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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NE

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'Alexmaldonado' picks N.Y. Giants vs New England to go Over (46.5)

Alexmaldonado is #6 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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'swtknguy' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (+7.5)

swtknguy is #7 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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NYG

NE

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'swtknguy' picks N.Y. Giants vs New England to go Over (46.5)

swtknguy is #7 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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'nfl_brosuf' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (+7.5)

nfl_brosuf is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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NYG

NE

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'blueminer000' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (+7.5)

blueminer000 is #8 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (8-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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NYG

NE

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'blueminer000' picks N.Y. Giants vs New England to go Over (46.5)

blueminer000 is #8 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (8-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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'cashbb1030' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (+7.5)

cashbb1030 is #9 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (8-4-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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NYG

NE

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'cashbb1030' picks N.Y. Giants vs New England to go Over (46.5)

cashbb1030 is #9 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (8-4-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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Top New England Pick Leaders Season 2025-2026

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