New England Patriots
Picks

1st in AFC East (11 - 3 - 0)

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at

Sun, Dec 21 20:20 ET

NE @ BAL Picks

Score a Touchdown

Drake Maye Score a Touchdown (Yes: +360)

Best Odds

Pick made: 15 hours ago

Who says no to a primetime quarterback rushing touchdown from an MVP candidate? The New England QB is coming off a four-carry, 43-yard rushing effort and scored twice on runs from seven and eight yards out. He goes from facing Josh Allen to Lamar Jackson, so the pace and adrenaline should remain high on Sunday night. Over the last three games, Maye has three red-zone carries and has turned two of them into touchdowns. That matches Rhamondre Stevenson’s usage and is just one fewer carry than TreVeyon Henderson. Coming off a two-TD game, his +360 price is a four-week high and well above his +260 average across that stretch, making it a strong buy.

Receiving Yards

TreVeyon Henderson o12.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 18.05 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 19 hours ago

EV Model Rating

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game.. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. The New England offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. The Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (42.0) vs. running backs this year.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Zay Flowers o62.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 70.7 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 18 hours ago

EV Model Rating

In this week's game, Zay Flowers is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile among WRs with 8.7 targets.. Zay Flowers has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 29.6% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. When it comes to air yards, Zay Flowers grades out in the lofty 80th percentile among wideouts this year, averaging a superb 71.0 per game.. Zay Flowers rates as one of the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 60.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.. The Patriots pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus wideouts this year, yielding 8.56 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in football.

-110 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Hunter Henry o40.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 43.98 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 17 hours ago

EV Model Rating

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game.. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. The projections expect Hunter Henry to accrue 5.8 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. When it comes to air yards, Hunter Henry ranks in the towering 92nd percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a massive 42.0 per game.

-114 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs o41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 44.62 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 14 hours ago

EV Model Rating

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game.. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. The New England offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Stefon Diggs's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 73.7% to 83.2%.

Rushing Yards

Drake Maye o19.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 28.73 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 14 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Rushing Yards

Derrick Henry u78.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 71.29 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 17 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Given the game dynamics and approaches of each team, the model projects this game (with an average of 26.85 seconds per play) will play at the 14th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 51.9 plays per game.. Derrick Henry's 79.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season shows a meaningful drop-off in his rushing skills over last season's 118.0 figure.. Derrick Henry's 5.1 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a meaningful reduction in his running talent over last season's 6.2 figure.. The opposing side have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 91.0 per game) against the Patriots defense this year.

-111 at DraftKings

Rushing Attempts

TreVeyon Henderson u13.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)

Projection 12.14 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game.. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to run on 41.1% of their downs: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's unit has been terrific this year, ranking as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Rushing Yards

Lamar Jackson o30.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 33.51 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 15 hours ago

EV Model Rating

With a 3-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to run on 48.0% of their downs: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect Lamar Jackson to accumulate 6.5 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.. With a terrific record of 2.20 yards-after-contact (81st percentile), Lamar Jackson stands as one of the leading rushing quarterbacks in the league this year.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, New England's DE corps has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in football. in football.

Consensus Picks

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'simoncald' is picking New England to cover (+3.0)

simoncald is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-5-0) and +4550 units on the season.

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'simoncald' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

simoncald is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-5-0) and +4550 units on the season.

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'Alexmaldonado' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

Alexmaldonado is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

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'Alexmaldonado' is picking Baltimore to cover (-1.5)

Alexmaldonado is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

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'Pinza' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

Pinza is #8 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (11-2-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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'Pinza' is picking New England to cover (+3.0)

Pinza is #8 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (11-2-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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BAL

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'interfly' is picking Baltimore to cover (-2.5)

interfly is #9 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (8-6-0) and +5600 units on the season.

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BAL

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'interfly' picks New England vs Baltimore to go Under (48.0)

interfly is #9 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (8-6-0) and +5600 units on the season.

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Under

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'nfl_brosuf' is picking Baltimore to cover (-2.5)

nfl_brosuf is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +4600 units on the season.

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