New England Patriots

Picks

Nobody on the Patriots ran more routes in the Wild Card round than Hunter Henry, who tied for the team lead with five targets and scored the offense’s only touchdown. He was priced at +125 to score back in Week 18 and continues to be the clear top option near the goal line, owning seven more red-zone targets since Week 10 than all New England wide receivers combined. New England isn’t projected to put up many points on Sunday, which makes backing the No.1 target in the passing game at his best price in months the cleanest angle. Houston has also been slightly vulnerable to tight ends, allowing eight TDs to the position this season compared to just 10 to wide receivers.

Stevenson was heavily involved in the Patriots offense in the Wild Card Round, on the ground and through the air. He gained back his spot atop the rushing attack at the end of the season, scoring six TDs in the final three games.  The yards are going to be hard against Houston and no one on the Pats goes as hard as Stevenson. 

Houston’s 30-point effort in the Wild Card looks much stronger, considering it had two defensive TDs. But even then, this passing game struggled through most of Monday until the Steelers buckled in the fourth quarter. The Patriots’ pass defense is sound and doesn’t allow for explosive plays and the run defense is back to full strength. Stroud is outdoors again - where he struggles - and star WR Nico Collins is nursing a concussion on a short week. Houston averaged less than 20 points on the road this season. The Patriots allowed only 16.7 ppg as a host and checked the Chargers to three points (and turned away L.A. on fourth down) in the Wild Card.

Due to the Steelers’ anemic offense, the Pittsburgh defense was forced to play more than 32 minutes and eventually broke in the second half. Two defensive scores may be skewing the early movement on this total, which jumped from 40.5 to 41.5 points.

Houston’s defense – specifically the pass defense – is elite. The Texans don’t give up much downfield and face a New England receiving corps shy of a game-breaking receiver. New England is also very good at taking away downfield threats and limiting explosive plays.

Much like the Patriots’ win over Los Angeles, this matchup with the Texans will be reserved to shorter gains and extended drives, anchored in the run. Houston marched for 163 yards and 5.3 yards per carry versus the Steelers while New England totaled 146 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per attempt against L.A.

I like the Under with a half-point hook on the happy side of the key O/U number of 41.5. 

Houston ended the regular season fourth in the league in DVOA while ranking second in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, New England was ninth in total DVOA while ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. I have more faith in CJ Stroud moving the ball against a vulnerable Pats secondary than I do in Drake Maye having success against an elite Houston pass defense. Getting points with arguably the better team is tough to turn down here so grab this number before it goes below that key number of 3.