New England Patriots
Picks

1st in AFC East (12 - 3 - 0)

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Sun, Dec 28 13:00 ET

NE @ NYJ Picks

Score a Touchdown

Mack Hollins Score a Touchdown (Yes: +265)

Best Odds

Pick made: 15 hours ago

Mac Hollins’ stat line last week was easy to overlook with Stefon Diggs grabbing the headlines, but the usage was real. Hollins finished with 69 yards on seven catches and nine targets, quietly playing a key role in the passing game. He also cashed a $300K incentive with his 40th reception and now sits just four catches away from another $400K bonus. This sets up as a favorable spot for an offense that typically handles bad teams, and New England’s red-zone tendencies only add to the appeal. The Patriots’ running backs have accounted for zero touchdowns over the last three games in the red zone despite nine red-zone carries and three red-zone targets, forcing scoring equity back to the passing game. With New England capable of hanging a big number on Sunday, Hollins’ volume and motivation make him a strong plus-money consideration.

Passing Yards

Drake Maye u254.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Projection 226.21 (Under)

Best Odds

u255.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

u249.5 -111

u254.5 -110

u255.5 -114

u254.5 -115

u253.5 -130

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Brady Cook o171.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Projection 179.42 (Over)

Best Odds

o167.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o170.5 -111

o171.5 -110

o167.5 -114

o171.5 -115

o169.5 -114

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. This year, the porous Patriots defense has yielded a colossal 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Adonai Mitchell o37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 46.01 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 11 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. The Patriots pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.3%) to wideouts this year (67.3%).. This year, the shaky New England Patriots defense has given up the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a monstrous 8.64 yards.

Receiving Yards

Breece Hall o10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 14.62 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. When talking about air yards, Breece Hall grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among RBs this year, accruing a superb 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. Breece Hall's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 76.7% to 89.2%.. Breece Hall's 7.9 adjusted yards per target this year shows a noteable progression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 6.2 figure.

Receiving Yards

Mason Taylor u31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 29.31 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The model projects the New York Jets to be the least pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 54.2% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Patriots linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs u59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 56.44 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.. After averaging 64.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has undergone a big decline this season, now pacing 53.0 per game.. Stefon Diggs's 45.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 53.8.

Rushing Yards

Drake Maye o20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 30.67 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to run on 47.6% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.. This year, the weak Jets run defense has yielded a colossal 136.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-most in football.. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New York's safety corps has been lousy this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league. in the league.

Rushing Yards

Breece Hall o57.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 71.26 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 11 hours ago

EV Model Rating

At the moment, the most run-oriented offense in the league (45.8% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jets.. In this game, Breece Hall is projected by the projections to rank in the 96th percentile among RBs with 18.7 carries.. While Breece Hall has been responsible for 59.2% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of New York's ground game in this week's game at 69.8%.. Breece Hall has picked up 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (84th percentile).

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

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72% picking New England

72% 72%

28% 28%

Total Picks NE 309, NYJ 119

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NE

NYJ

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Top User Picks

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'Sahrmike' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+13.0)

Sahrmike is #1 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +5850 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'Sahrmike' picks New England vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (43.5)

Sahrmike is #1 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +5850 units on the season.

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'presley1' is picking New England to cover (-9.5)

presley1 is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'CastlemontDB91' is picking New England to cover (-9.5)

CastlemontDB91 is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (10-5-0) and +5550 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'CastlemontDB91' picks New England vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (43.5)

CastlemontDB91 is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (10-5-0) and +5550 units on the season.

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'Bert1' is picking New England to cover (-13.0)

Bert1 is #3 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'fttrdoyle' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+13.0)

fttrdoyle is #8 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (7-5-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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NYJ

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'fttrdoyle' picks New England vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (43.5)

fttrdoyle is #8 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (7-5-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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'jessestars' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+13.0)

jessestars is #9 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (9-4-0) and +4550 units on the season.

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NE

NYJ

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'jessestars' picks New England vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (43.5)

jessestars is #9 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (9-4-0) and +4550 units on the season.

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Pages Related to This Topic

Top New England Pick Leaders Season 2025-2026

Rank	Leader	L10	Units

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