New England Patriots Picks

Pick made: 4 hours ago

-11.5 -108

-11.5 -110

-10.5 -115

-11.5 -110

The Patriots’ defense isn’t elite, but they’re still doing a good job of keeping the points against them down, and with Miami Dolphins rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers under center, the same should happen here.

On the offensive side of the ball, this team is a juggernaut. The offense ranks sixth in DVOA, and with Drake Maye an MVP candidate, they are tough to beat.

Strong offensive line play is at the heart of it, and they’re finding ways to put up big numbers, and are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NFL with 28.3 points per game.

With the Patriots needing the result here and playing on their home field, this should be a cover for Mike Vrabel’s team.

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Score a Touchdown

Efton Chism III Score a Touchdown (Yes: +450)

Best Odds

+425

Pick made: yesterday

+425

The Patriots still have everything to play for, with outcomes ranging from the No. 1 seed to the No. 3 seed. That urgency sets up well for a focused offensive game plan against Miami in cold-weather conditions. Efton Chism ran the second-most routes last week, played more than 90% of the snaps in the second half, and cashed a 10-yard touchdown in the third quarter. His snap share should remain high, and with Stefon Diggs dealing with legal issues and Kayshon Boutte still in the concussion protocol, Chism could be a featured wideout in Week 18. At +450, this is a price I’d play down to +300.

Total

o45.5 (-115)

Best Odds

o44.5 -118

Pick made: 4 days ago

o45.5 -112

o45.5 -110

o44.5 -118

o45.5 -110

o45.5 -112

The Dolphins defense is so bad and the Patriots offense is so good that it won't matter how much the Dolphins can score for this Over to hit.

Spread

NE -10.5 (-110)

Best Odds

Pick made: 4 days ago

-11.5 -108

-11.5 -110

-10.5 -115

-11.5 -110

Mike McDaniels' Dolphins teams have always struggled in cold weather and the Patriots need this win to try and get the 1-seed in the AFC.

Score a Touchdown

TreVeyon Henderson Score a Touchdown (Yes: +115)

Projection 0.72 (Yes)

Best Odds

+115

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

-105

-130

+115

-105

+105

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has given up a staggering 88.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 2nd-highest rate in football.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

+115 at FanDuel

Receptions Made

Hunter Henry u4.5 Receptions Made (-105)

Projection 3.64 (Under)

Best Odds

u4.5 -105

Pick made: 27 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u4.5 -110

u4.5 -146

u4.5 -105

u4.5 -125

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Hunter Henry's 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 44.2.. Hunter Henry's 3.1 adjusted catches per game this year marks a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 4.2 rate.

-105 at BetMGM

Passing Completions

Quinn Ewers o16.5 Passing Completions (-115)

Projection 18.72 (Over)

Best Odds

o16.5 -115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o17.5 -134

o16.5 -115

o17.5 -138

o16.5 -115

o17.5 +100

The Dolphins are a heavy 11.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. This year, the poor New England Patriots defense has surrendered a colossal 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-worst rate in football.

-115 at bet365

Passing Yards

Quinn Ewers u206.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Projection 188.41 (Under)

Best Odds

u206.5 -114

Pick made: 2 days ago

EV Model Rating

u196.5 -110

u206.5 -114

u196.5 -115

u196.5 -137

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (55.5% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 51.8 per game on average).. The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. The Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs o50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 67.03 (Over)

Best Odds

o50.5 -110

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o50.5 -110

o52.5 -114

o50.5 -115

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. In this week's contest, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the predictive model to place in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.6 targets.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.. Stefon Diggs ranks as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a remarkable 57.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.. Stefon Diggs's 85.0% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a noteworthy gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 73.7% rate.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

TreVeyon Henderson o12.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 17.83 (Over)

Best Odds

o12.5 -110

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o12.5 -110

o12.5 -115

The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.. This year, the shaky Dolphins defense has yielded a staggering 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 8th-worst in the NFL.. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has given up a staggering 88.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 2nd-highest rate in football.. When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Miami's DE corps has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Hunter Henry u47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 44.2 (Under)

Best Odds

u47.5 -110

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u47.5 -110

u46.5 -114

u47.5 -110

u47.5 -115

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Hunter Henry's 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 44.2.. Hunter Henry's 71.6% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 75.1% rate.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Drake Maye o19.5 Rushing Yards (+113)

Projection 29 (Over)

Best Odds

o15.5 -110

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o19.5 +113

o15.5 -110

o15.5 -114

o15.5 -118

o19.5 +107

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 11th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (129 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

De'Von Achane o67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 77.56 (Over)

Best Odds

o65.5 -115

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o67.5 -110

o65.5 -115

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 2nd-most run-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 44.7% run rate.. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to earn 17.4 carries in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.. After comprising 46.4% of his offense's run game usage last year, De'Von Achane has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now making up 62.9%.. De'Von Achane has rushed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (68.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).. De'Von Achane's 5.1 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a meaningful growth in his rushing proficiency over last season's 4.2 rate.

-115 at BetMGM

Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

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'presley1' is picking Miami to cover (+9.5)

presley1 is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +5250 units on the season.

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MIA

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'spiveytexas61' picks Miami vs New England to go Under (45.5)

spiveytexas61 is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (10-5-1) and +6050 units on the season.

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'spiveytexas61' is picking Miami to cover (+10.5)

spiveytexas61 is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (10-5-1) and +6050 units on the season.

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MIA

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'adamort22' is picking Miami to cover (+9.5)

adamort22 is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (10-5-0) and +6050 units on the season.

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MIA

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'simoncald' is picking New England to cover (-11.0)

simoncald is #5 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-6-0) and +5500 units on the season.

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MIA

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'simoncald' picks Miami vs New England to go Over (45.5)

simoncald is #5 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (10-6-0) and +5500 units on the season.

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'goph62' picks Miami vs New England to go Over (45.5)

goph62 is #7 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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'Kilimonster' is picking New England to cover (-11.0)

Kilimonster is #7 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +5400 units on the season.

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MIA

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'goph62' is picking Miami to cover (+11.5)

goph62 is #7 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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MIA

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'Coachp46' is picking New England to cover (-10.5)

Coachp46 is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-0-0) and +5250 units on the season.

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MIA

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'Coachp46' picks Miami vs New England to go Over (45.5)

Coachp46 is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-0-0) and +5250 units on the season.

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