New England Patriots

Picks

In his first game back from injury, Dalton Kincaid scored at +210 and finished with four catches on five targets, including one in the red zone. Buffalo’s tight ends were heavily involved against Cincinnati, catching 11 passes compared to nine from the wide receivers. With another week of work, Kincaid should see an increase from the 52 percent route share he had last game. He’s also off the injury report entirely, which is a strong indication he’s back to full health heading into a rematch with New England, where he posted six catches and over 100 yards in Week 5. This touchdown price should be under +200.

New England is coming off a bye with two weeks to scheme for Josh Allen and the Bills – yet opened as short home dogs in Week 15. We’re already seeing the vig on Buffalo -1.5 get discounted to EVEN money and it would surprise me if this hit pick’em soon and closed with the Pats as slim home chalk. The Bills escaped a wintery war with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, needing takeaways and Josh Allen to go “God Mode” once again. This Buffalo defense is doo-doo, allowing 25 first downs and six yards per play to the Bengals at home in Week 14. New England is much stiffer defensively and can lean into their ground game to dominate the football, methodically move the chains, and keep Allen on the sidelines. This is the biggest game in recent history for New England and would secure Coach of the Year for Mike Vrabel.