New England Patriots

Picks

The door remains open for Kirk to see an uptick in targets again against the Pats with No. 1 wideout Nico Collins in concussion protocol and unlikely to play after missing practice Thursday.  Kirk went good to the tune of eight catches for 144 yards on nine targets last week against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round, and New England finished 25th in pass defense DVOA during the regular season. He’ll also have a size advantage against Pats slot cornerback Marcus Jones, and Jones surrendered a 75% catch rate and 113.9 NFL passer rating against this season. 

Houston needed the defense to bail out the offense in Pittsburgh but the Patriots are a much more dynamic team. New England's defense is fantastic both stopping the run and slowing down the pass. C.J. Stroud will struggle with the elements and miss Nico Collins, who is likely out with a concussion. When Houston's pressure mounts, Drake Maye can make plays with his legs, unlike Aaron Rodgers, and the Pats can pick up gains on the ground with the two-headed beast at running back. New England wins a low-scoring grinder, which is why I'm leaning ML rather than lay the field goal with the Patriots.

Drake Maye has been sacked a whopping 52 times this season. The sophomore QB tends to hold on to the ball too long due to his mediocre receivers struggling to separate from DBs. That will make Maye a sitting duck in the pocket against Houston who has a strong secondary and the best pass rushing duo in the NFL. Danielle Hunter finished the regular season third in the league in sacks (15) and fourth in pressures (89). He's picked up a sack in eight of his last 10 games, including last week's clash in Pittsburgh where he racked up six pressures.

Houston road games are 8-1 to the 1st Half Under with an average of just 14.6 combined points. I like this pattern to continue with both defenses coming off elite performances where they allowed a combined nine points in the wild card round.  

Nobody on the Patriots ran more routes in the Wild Card round than Hunter Henry, who tied for the team lead with five targets and scored the offense’s only touchdown. He was priced at +125 to score back in Week 18 and continues to be the clear top option near the goal line, owning seven more red-zone targets since Week 10 than all New England wide receivers combined. New England isn’t projected to put up many points on Sunday, which makes backing the No.1 target in the passing game at his best price in months the cleanest angle. Houston has also been slightly vulnerable to tight ends, allowing eight TDs to the position this season compared to just 10 to wide receivers.

Stevenson was heavily involved in the Patriots offense in the Wild Card Round, on the ground and through the air. He gained back his spot atop the rushing attack at the end of the season, scoring six TDs in the final three games.  The yards are going to be hard against Houston and no one on the Pats goes as hard as Stevenson. 

Houston’s 30-point effort in the Wild Card looks much stronger, considering it had two defensive TDs. But even then, this passing game struggled through most of Monday until the Steelers buckled in the fourth quarter. The Patriots’ pass defense is sound and doesn’t allow for explosive plays and the run defense is back to full strength. Stroud is outdoors again - where he struggles - and star WR Nico Collins is nursing a concussion on a short week. Houston averaged less than 20 points on the road this season. The Patriots allowed only 16.7 ppg as a host and checked the Chargers to three points (and turned away L.A. on fourth down) in the Wild Card.

Due to the Steelers’ anemic offense, the Pittsburgh defense was forced to play more than 32 minutes and eventually broke in the second half. Two defensive scores may be skewing the early movement on this total, which jumped from 40.5 to 41.5 points.

Houston’s defense – specifically the pass defense – is elite. The Texans don’t give up much downfield and face a New England receiving corps shy of a game-breaking receiver. New England is also very good at taking away downfield threats and limiting explosive plays.

Much like the Patriots’ win over Los Angeles, this matchup with the Texans will be reserved to shorter gains and extended drives, anchored in the run. Houston marched for 163 yards and 5.3 yards per carry versus the Steelers while New England totaled 146 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per attempt against L.A.

I like the Under with a half-point hook on the happy side of the key O/U number of 41.5. 

Houston ended the regular season fourth in the league in DVOA while ranking second in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, New England was ninth in total DVOA while ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. I have more faith in CJ Stroud moving the ball against a vulnerable Pats secondary than I do in Drake Maye having success against an elite Houston pass defense. Getting points with arguably the better team is tough to turn down here so grab this number before it goes below that key number of 3.