New England Patriots

Picks

Denver will have backup QB Jarrett Stidham under center so expect Sean Payton to use gadget plays to keep New England's defense on its heels. Marvin Mims Jr. had eight catches for 93 yards last week and Payton will look to get the ball into the hands of the speedy wideout on Sunday. Mims hasn't logged a rush attempt in his last three games but before that he had a carry in 10 straight games, rushing for 3+ yards in seven of those contests. The Patriots have a stingy run defense but are vulnerable on misdirection plays, allowing a league-high 8.5 yards per rush on counters. 

The Patriots offense hasn't been great in the postseason, struggling to move the chains against the Chargers and Texans while going a collective 1 for 4 in the red zone. Kicker Andy Borregales didn't attempt a FG in the Divisional Round but went 3 for 3 in the Wild Card and is kicking in perfect conditions with the thin air in Denver helping his distance. The Broncos are among the best red-zone defenses in the NFL and the Patriots scored a TD on just 55.22% of their RZ trips (22nd). 

Maye has been been sacked a whopping 57 times this season due to his tendency to hold on to the ball when his WRs can't get separation. He'll face constant pressure from Broncos Pro Bowl DL Zach Allen. The 285-pound monster led all interior linemen with 73 pressures during the regular season and has picked up at least half a sack in nine of his last 14 games. Allen lines up primarily over the left guard which gives him a favorable matchup against rookie Jared Wilson. Wilson is the weak link in New England's O-line and has surrendered six sacks in the regular season and playoffs.

Temps will be freezing in Denver on Sunday but with barely any wind and no precipitation, don't expect it to affect Drake Maye. The Patriots superstar QB has performed extremely well in cold weather and has thrown for more than 250 yards in 13 of his last 18 contests. The Broncos pass defense has regressed over their last five games with their only good performances coming against backups Trey Lance and Chris Oladokun. Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love passed for more than 270 yards against them, while Josh Allen had 283 yards despite throwing to a WR corps that had been decimated by injuries.

Stidham steps in for a conservative passing playbook. It ranks low in air yards, depth of target, and yards per attempt. That simplicity makes it easy for a backup to “plug and play” without much drop-off. New England will sell out to stop the run and force the game onto Stidham’s shoulders and with a negative game script, Denver will be pass-heavy while playing from behind. There are positive updates around injuries for the Broncos WRs and centers, and player projections sit as high as 22 completions for Stidham.

If I’m taking a Broncos TD midweek, it has to be Evan Engram at this number. There are too many questions in the backfield and at wide receiver, so I’ll take a shot on the pass-catching tight end tied to a quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass yet this season. With Pat Bryant, JK Dobbins, and Troy Franklin all uncertain, a fresh QB–TE connection makes sense at +500. Lower aDOT targets carry more value in this spot, and Engram’s 4.5 aDOT sets him up as a natural checkdown for Jarrett Stidham. This is a half-unit play for me.

Even with some time missed with an eye injury, Rhamondre Stevenson finished with 16 carries, which were the most for him since Week 8. He took 80% of the RB opportunities in the second half while playing 87% of the snaps. This is his backfield, and the game script as a road favorite vs. a backup quarterback has this game screaming heavy workload for the RB. Drake Maye's ball security could add a few more touches. 

The Covers projection has Harvey at 26.4 receiving yards after posting a 54% route share last week and catching five of six targets for 46 yards, showing clear trust in the passing game, even if the run role remains limited. J.K. Dobbins could return, but Sean Payton may keep Harvey in the receiving role with Dobbins and McLaughlin splitting carries, as Harvey’s 3.5 YPC hasn’t solved the run game. Only eight RBs have more receptions this season than Harvey, and with Jarrett Stidham at QB, checkdowns could pile up. If Denver trails, another 40-plus receiving yard game is live.

Rhamondre Stevenson handled his heaviest rushing workload since Week 8 last week with 16 carries, even after briefly leaving with an eye injury. After halftime, he played 87% of the snaps, handled 80% of the backfield opportunities, and ran for 47 yards as New England leaned into the run game. Game script again points run-heavy, with the Patriots facing a backup QB and Drake Maye struggling with ball security. The line has already moved up from 42.5, but it was not efficient as Stevenson is 6-0 to Over on it across his last six games.

Mims gets a big bump up the depth chart with Franklin and Bryant nursing injuries. He had a great day in the Divisional Round, catching all eight passes his way including a 26-yard TD catch in the 4Q. He’s much stronger vs. man coverage and that’s what the Pats roll out and New England CB Carlton Davis is questionable. 

Harvey’s role in the receiving game spiked in the back third of the schedule, drawing four or more targets in five of the final six regular season games as well as six targets against the Bills last week. Denver’s passing playbook is pretty simple to begin with and his role gets a boost with a backup QB looking for short and easy throws. Pats run stop is great and they sell out to make Stidham beat them. All projections for Harvey above this total with most at 21 yards or more. 

The lookahead line for this game prior to the Nix injury had the Broncos as a -1.5-point favorite. I don't think Stidham is a 7-point dropoff from Nix. I expect Stidham to be comfotable, playing at home behind a strong offensive line against a Pariots defense that's taken a step back on the road this season.

If you measure movement based on look-ahead lines and the current point spread for the AFC title game, Bo Nix's injury is worth as much as a touchdown to the spread. However, he's much easier to replace based on the simplicity of this Denver passing game. The Broncos don't throw beyond the sticks much and backup QB Jarrett Stidham isn't that much of a downgrade. Mix in Denver's elite defense, the Patriots' offensive struggles vs. Houston, as well and home field, thin air and coaching edge owned by the Broncos, and this game will be much tighter than the +5.5 spread would indicate. 

This spread has moved seven points from the look-ahead line due to Jarret Stidham replacing an injured Bo Nix at QB. That looks like an overreaction, given Stidham's familiarity with this offense and his solid track record.  Across four career NFL starts, Stidham has completed 62.5% of his passes for 270 passing yards per game with a passer rating of 89.7. He won't be asked to do too much since the Broncos are anchored by their elite defense. They boast the league's best pass rush, which will make things tough for Patriots pivot Drake Maye, who has been sacked a whopping 57 times.

New England has covered in 13 of its past 16 games, and after ranking eighth in defensive DVOA dating back to Week 14 of the regular season, the Pats held the Houston Texans to just 16 points and 241 total yards of offense in the Divisional Round. With Denver turning to backup Jarrett Stidham, I think the market is undervaluing the Pats again, and I’m expecting the New England defense to hold Denver in check.

Before the Nix injury, the look-ahead total for this AFC title game pairing was 45.5. Books adjusted that number to 40.5 ahead of the Patriots’ win over Houston on Sunday. Books opened the official total at 41.5 points. 

The Patriots benefited from an error-plagued performance from Texans QB C.J. Stroud, which helped their offensive effort appear stronger than it really was. New England scored a defensive touchdown, averaged only 4.0 yards per play, and had three turnovers of its own against Houston’s top-tier defense.

The Broncos present more of the same. Denver ranks among the top stop units in the land and will lean heavily on that defense to keep the team within striking distance next Sunday. The Broncos' playbook was conservative with Nix, but it will be very vanilla with Stidham as it tries to lure the Pats into a low-scoring grinder.