New England Patriots

Picks

Mayfield should benefit from a New England Patriots secondary that hasn’t exactly been stout against the pass. New England remains vulnerable in the air, as opponents are completing 69.1% of their passes for a robust 7.0 yards per attempt. How much Tampa Bay will score is up for debate, but I fully expect the offense to move the ball and get to Mayfield’s yardage total.

Emeka Egbuka has been a breath of fresh air for Tampa Bay, which has needed his brilliance due to injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Egbuka has emerged as WR1 for QB Baker Mayfield, making 34 receptions for 562 yards in eight games, including five touchdowns.

Stefon Diggs leads the Patriots in receptions by a mile, reeling in 45 catches for 508 yards and two touchdowns. Kayshon Boutte is also sidelined, which means an ever larger workload for Diggs, who will be an important factor in beating the 7-2 Bucs. 

Douglas finished with a season-high 100 yards in Week 9, and with Kayshon Boutte sidelined in Week 10, expect plenty of work for Douglas.

With Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) sidelined again, expect Henderson to build on his 87-yard performance from Week 9.

Egbuka had the bye week to get healthy, and after three straight duds, he's due for a bounce-back performance in what should be a pass-focused offensive attack.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving has been ruled out for Week 10 which means another start for Rachaad White. White could find it tough to find running room against a New England defense that allows a league-low 75.4 rushing yards per game. That said, the Pats are vulnerable to backs in the passing game, ranking 26th in the NFL with 40.8 receiving yards per game allowed to the position. White’s biggest strengths are his pass-catching and pass-blocking abilities, which keeps him on the field on third downs. He's logged more than 20 receiving yards in four of his last five games and should eclipse that number again. 

I like the Buccaneers in this spot at home and coming off their Week 9 bye. Tampa has a handful of statement wins on the ledger, and I’m expecting the extra week of rest and preparation to make the difference in this game. Look for the Tampa Bay defense to show up and play New England quarterback Drake Maye tough. He’s been sacked six times in consecutive weeks, and the Pats offensive line ranks 31st in pass block win rate for the year, after all. Additionally, while the New England defense is popping in most advanced metrics, the Patriots also rank 25th in defensive DVOA – which accounts for strength of schedule. New England ranking 28th in pressure percentage and 23rd in pass rush win rate also has my attention because there is a notable gap in Tampa QB Baker Mayfield’s numbers when pressured and when throwing from a clean pocket. 

The Bucs are coming off a bye, but they might not be getting much healthier. Bucky Irving still isn’t taking contact midway through the week, and Chris Godwin missed Wednesday’s practice with a lingering leg issue. This could be a good time to jump early on Tez Johnson, who should still operate as the No. 3 option even if Godwin returns. The rookie led Tampa Bay in receptions and yards back in Week 8, when he closed at +250 for a touchdown. He was +700 the week before that and scored against Detroit, also cashing a +350 TD prop in Week 6. New England could be missing top corner Christian Gonzalez, who left Week 9 with a head injury. I’d grab this now at +275 and would play it down to +220 if Godwin is ruled out.