New England Patriots Picks
2nd in AFC East
(4 - 3 - 0)
Next Game
Sun, Nov 1
16:25 ET
NE @ MIA Picks
NFL Picks
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Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
New England QB Drake Maye paces the NFL in adjusted EPA per play over the past four weeks, and the Pats are third in offensive DVOA with an average of 31 points per game during the surge. Miami checks in 31st in offensive DVOA and 30th in defensive DVOA for the season, so with New England also having the benefit of extra rest and preparation time after playing Thursday Night Football in Week 7, the Dolphins are in tough and overmatched Sunday.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to run on 47.0% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.. The New England defensive tackles project as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This week, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers with 7.5 targets.. A.J. Brown has posted a whopping 95.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among WRs.. A.J. Brown's 69.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks among the league leaders: 95th percentile for WRs.. The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. A.J. Brown grades out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 60.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The Patriots pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.1%) vs. wide receivers this year (67.1%).. This year, the anemic Patriots defense has allowed the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a colossal 4.13 YAC.. The New England Patriots safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in defending receivers.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusNE @ MIA · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
NE
-6.5 spread
-8.51
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
11.93%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Under
44.0 Total
42.89 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
13.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
M. Willis
(QB)
u182.5 Passing Yards
181.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
-12.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
O. Gordon II
(RB)
o61.5 Rushing Yards
65.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
19.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
M. Willis
(QB)
o31.5 Rushing Yards
32.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
13.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
A. Brown
(WR)
o54.5 Receiving Yards
64.79 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.3
DIFFERENCE
25.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Washington
(WR)
o37.5 Receiving Yards
47.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.9
DIFFERENCE
25.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
R. Stevenson
(RB)
o16.5 Receiving Yards
19.37 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
14.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
G. Dulcich
(TE)
o30.5 Receiving Yards
31.31 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-9.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
M. Willis
(QB)
u28.5 Passing Attempts
27.85 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
4.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
D. Maye
(QB)
u20.5 Passing Completions
19.68 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
11.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
M. Willis
(QB)
o16.5 Passing Completions
17.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
9.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Brown
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.47 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
14.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Maye
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
O. Gordon II
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
0.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
R. Stevenson
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-5.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
H. Henry
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Willis
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-27.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
M. Willis
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-11.6%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
NE
-6.5 spread
-8.51
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
11.93%
EV
TOTAL
Under
44.0 Total
42.89 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
13.25%
EV
PASSING YARDS
M. Willis
(QB)
u182.5 Passing Yards
181.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
-12.01%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
O. Gordon II
(RB)
o61.5 Rushing Yards
65.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
19.16%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
M. Willis
(QB)
o31.5 Rushing Yards
32.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
13.31%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
A. Brown
(WR)
o54.5 Receiving Yards
64.79 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.3
DIFFERENCE
25.48%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Washington
(WR)
o37.5 Receiving Yards
47.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.9
DIFFERENCE
25.21%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
R. Stevenson
(RB)
o16.5 Receiving Yards
19.37 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
14.84%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
G. Dulcich
(TE)
o30.5 Receiving Yards
31.31 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-9.58%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
M. Willis
(QB)
u28.5 Passing Attempts
27.85 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
4.57%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
D. Maye
(QB)
u20.5 Passing Completions
19.68 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
11.98%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
M. Willis
(QB)
o16.5 Passing Completions
17.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
9.76%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Brown
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.47 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
14.89%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Maye
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.5%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
O. Gordon II
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
0.81%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
R. Stevenson
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-5.86%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
H. Henry
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-12%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Willis
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-27.54%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
M. Willis
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-11.6%
EV
NE @ MIA · Trends
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