New England Patriots

Picks

This spread has moved seven points from the lookahead line due to Jarret Stidham replacing an injured Bo Nix at QB. That looks like an overreaction given Stidham's familiarity in this offense and his solid track record, albeit in a small sample size.  Across four career NFL starts, Stidham has completed 62.5% of his passes for 270 passing yards per game with a passer rating of 89.7. He won't be asked to do too much since the Broncos are anchored by an elite defense. They boast the league's best pass rush which will make things tough for Patriots pivot Drake Maye who has been sacked a whopping 57 times.

New England has covered in 13 of its past 16 games, and after ranking eighth in defensive DVOA dating back to Week 14 of the regular season, the Pats held the Houston Texans to just 16 points and 241 total yards of offense in the Divisional Round. With Denver turning to backup Jarrett Stidham, I think the market is undervaluing the Pats again, and I’m expecting the New England defense to hold Denver in check.

Before the Nix injury, the look-ahead total for this AFC title game pairing was 45.5. Books adjusted that number to 40.5 ahead of the Patriots’ win over Houston on Sunday. Books opened the official total at 41.5 points. 

The Patriots benefited from an error-plagued performance from Texans QB C.J. Stroud, which helped their offensive effort appear stronger than it really was. New England scored a defensive touchdown, averaged only 4.0 yards per play, and had three turnovers of its own against Houston’s top-tier defense.

The Broncos present more of the same. Denver ranks among the top stop units in the land and will lean heavily on that defense to keep the team within striking distance next Sunday. The Broncos' playbook was conservative with Nix, but it will be very vanilla with Stidham as it tries to lure the Pats into a low-scoring grinder.