New England Patriots

Picks

Due to the Steelers’ anemic offense, the Pittsburgh defense was forced to play more than 32 minutes and eventually broke in the second half. Two defensive scores may be skewing the early movement on this total, which jumped from 40.5 to 41.5 points.

Houston’s defense – specifically the pass defense – is elite. The Texans don’t give up much downfield and face a New England receiving corps shy of a game-breaking receiver. New England is also very good at taking away downfield threats and limiting explosive plays.

Much like the Patriots’ win over Los Angeles, this matchup with the Texans will be reserved to shorter gains and extended drives, anchored in the run. Houston marched for 163 yards and 5.3 yards per carry versus the Steelers while New England totaled 146 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per attempt against L.A.

I like the Under with a half-point hook on the happy side of the key O/U number of 41.5. 

Houston ended the regular season fourth in the league in DVOA while ranking second in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, New England was ninth in total DVOA while ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. I have more faith in CJ Stroud moving the ball against a vulnerable Pats secondary than I do in Drake Maye having success against an elite Houston pass defense. Getting points with arguably the better team is tough to turn down here so grab this number before it goes below that key number of 3.