New England Patriots Picks
2nd in AFC East
(2 - 2 - 0)
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LV @ NE Picks
NFL PicksThe Las Vegas Raiders have put up at least 26 points in each of their first four games, and even solid defensive teams like the Kansas City Chiefs haven't slowed them. The New England Patriots can also pound the ball against a Raiders defense allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. With both offenses showing teeth lately, I'm leaning towards the Over at 45.5 points.
While the New England Patriots have slightly better raw numbers, advanced statistics give the Las Vegas Raiders an edge in this matchup on both sides of the ball. Las Vegas is 12th in offensive EPA per play (compared to 21st for New England) and eighth in defensive EPA (12th for the Patriots).
With the better team getting more than a field goal, I'm taking Las Vegas to cover on the road.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusLV @ NE · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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SPREAD
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TOTAL
Under
45.5 Total
44.01 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.5
DIFFERENCE
9.72%
EV
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low