Los Angeles Rams Picks
3rd in NFC West
(2 - 2 - 0)
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BUF @ LA Picks
NFL PicksThe Bills' defense is a laughingstock right now as new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard struggles to get his new scheme figured out. Drake Maye and the Patriots just put up 405 yards in Orchard Park and went 3-for-3 in the red zone. The only team not to put up 25+ points against this Buffalo defense was the Chargers, who forced five turnovers and still converted 50% of their third downs. Matthew Stafford has completed 61 passes over the last two games against legitimate defenses in Philadelphia and Denver. LA might score 40 points on Monday. The Rams' defense just allowed 20 points to a no-name Philly offense that went 0-for-12 on third downs and managed just 10 passing yards in the second half. The only team not to score 20+ against them was the Giants, who lost Jaxson Dart early. Josh Allen's efficiency indoors is off the charts, and I love both QBs to keep this game alive in a negative game script and help backdoor the Over if need be.
The Bills are 7-1 ATS following a straight-up regular-season loss dating back to October 2024. The biggest news on this spread is the move across the 3, from 2.5 to 3.5, on Thursday afternoon. DJ Moore is very questionable, and Aaron Donald is expected to play, but I'm not sure that's enough to move the number through a key number. That suggests there was likely respected money on the Rams at -2.5. I'll take Josh Allen indoors laying three points or more in any game, in any setting. The Bills covered a 7.5-point spread in a game with five turnovers. They have yet to play their best football, and the Rams haven't been overly impressive through four weeks. They just won 24-20 against an Eagles team that converted zero third downs, while Jalen Hurts threw for just 10 yards in the second half. Allen has covered in each of his last three regular-season games as an underdog dating back to the last two calendar years.
In his nine indoor games, Josh Allen's numbers are insane. His passer rating is 14 points higher, but his rushing numbers really stand out. He has 12 rushing touchdowns in those nine games and averages 43 rushing yards per game. One of those performances was a three-TD, 82-yard rushing game at SoFi Stadium in 2024 against this Rams defense, in a game that saw both teams score 40+ points. Even if you can't get behind the indoor splits, how about a quarterback who has scored a TD in every game this year, has multiple rushing TDs in 75% of his games, and has more carries inside the 5-yard line than all but seven players in the league? James Cook might outtouch Allen in the red zone, 13-10, but from the five and in, it's the Allen show, with six carries to Cook's four. It's an indoor prime-time game against the reigning MVP. Josh Allen is going to show up and find the end zone. The fair price for this TD in a 54.5-point total should be 59.5%.
After a brutal travel schedule, the Rams finally get home with an extra day to prepare for a sloppy Buffalo team that's had seven turnovers in their last two games. The defensive gap is massive. Buffalo ranks 29th in opponent explosive play rate and is allowing 26.8 PPG. Against a healthy Rams offense with three straight 400-yard games, there's potential for the Bills defense to get embarrassed. Expect L.A. to get more stops and cover the number.
Josh Allen’s passing TD props come at a discount because of how dangerous the Bills QB is as a runner in the red zone. With the tallest total on the board for Buffalo’s trip to L.A., Allen’s TD pass projections are very positive. Those models range from 1.4 to 1.84 with majority at 1.6 or higher. Allen has only one passing TD in the last two games after 2 and 3 strikes in the opening two outings. His passing stats get a boost in rare indoor games and he’ll let if fly on MNF.
There is meat on the bone for a Dalton Kincaid TD that opened at 3.2x, and I have a fair price of 2.8x. Kincaid has been ignored too much over the last two weeks as the Bills have moved away from their heavy-TE usage and used play-action at a lower rate. Let's hope a Week 4 loss to New England pushes Joe Brady back toward the 13-personnel usage we saw in Weeks 1 and 2, when Kincaid had 225 receiving yards and a score. It's a great buy-low spot on the tight end after he has just three receptions over the last two weeks. Buffalo has played bad football over the last two games, and getting Kincaid the ball has to be a priority in what could be an indoor shootout.
Josh Allen is trading at 49% on Kalshi to score a touchdown, and I’ll hit the button at that number, as I price Allen closer to 56% to find the end zone on Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams. With Trent McDuffie on the perimeter and Quentin Lake matching up against Dalton Kincaid in the red zone, Joe Brady could have a few more designed runs in the playbook against the Rams. Los Angeles matches up well defensively with the Bills’ other red-zone targets, which could create more opportunities for Allen to use his legs near the goal line.
It's the fifth week of trying the double quarterback TD, and I'm not getting off it now. Josh Allen already has seven rushing TDs this year and is nearly a coin flip to find the end zone again on Monday. Matthew Stafford is the tougher leg to hit. The solace here is that THE BLITZ has Stafford's TD as the best +EV TD prop in this game. He's currently 17/1 to score but should be priced closer to 12/1. Stafford does have a QB sneak in the playbook at the goal line, and the Bills just got gashed by Drake Maye on the ground. It's a long shot for a reason, but I'm playing the long game on Monday night. A 54.5-point total has me excited this week, as both offenses should get 4+ red-zone trips each.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusBUF @ LA · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
54.5 Total
55.97 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
9.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Allen
(QB)
o245.5 Passing Yards
267.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+22.3
DIFFERENCE
25.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
M. Stafford
(QB)
o280.5 Passing Yards
291.32 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.8
DIFFERENCE
22.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
M. Stafford
(QB)
o1.5 Rushing Yards
4.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Parkinson
(TE)
o16.5 Receiving Yards
26.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.3
DIFFERENCE
26.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
K. Shakir
(WR)
o46.5 Receiving Yards
59.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.3
DIFFERENCE
26.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Cook III
(RB)
o11.5 Receiving Yards
16.20 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.7
DIFFERENCE
25.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Kincaid
(TE)
o50.5 Receiving Yards
58.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.7
DIFFERENCE
22.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
P. Nacua
(WR)
o90.5 Receiving Yards
97.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.9
DIFFERENCE
18.93%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
K. Williams
(RB)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
20.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
3.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
K. Shakir
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions Made
5.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
17.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Kincaid
(TE)
o4.5 Receptions Made
4.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
13.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Cook III
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
2.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
12.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
K. Williams
(RB)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-18.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Allen
(QB)
o31.5 Passing Attempts
34.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.4
DIFFERENCE
19.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Allen
(QB)
o20.5 Passing Completions
23.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
21.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
M. Stafford
(QB)
o22.5 Passing Completions
23.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
2.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Stafford
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.11 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Shakir
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.42 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
21.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Williams
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.82 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
P. Nacua
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.64 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Kincaid
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.4 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Allen
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.55 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
4.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Parkinson
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-7.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Cook III
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.46 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-11.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Allen
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.47 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
M. Stafford
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
16.48%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low