Green Bay Packers Picks

Pick made: 3 days ago

o12.5 -115

o9.5 -112

o9.5 -115

Minnesota brings extra pass rushers more than any team in the NFL, which has helped Flores generate the highest pressure rate per dropback on opposing passers. The Vikes rank No. 2 in QB hurries and No. 3 in QB hits while collecting 26 sacks on the season. Love’s pass protection is showing cracks, allowing six sacks the past three games, and the Cheeseheads’ leader could be without his best blitz-busting targets in TE Tucker Kraft (out) and dual-threat RB Josh Jacobs, who missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury. Love has rushed for at least a dozen yards in six of his 10 games, and most Week 12 projections sit north of his current rushing yards O/U. Those models range from 10.5 to 16 yards with the majority beyond 14 gains on the ground.

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Score a Touchdown

JW Josh Whyle Score a Touchdown (Yes: +1200)

Best Odds

+1000

Pick made: 4 days ago

+900

+700

+1000

+950

I’ve seen enough of JJ McCarthy to avoid all Minnesota skill players against this defense, but Josh Whyle is a name I’m excited to take a swing on at this number. With Tucker Kraft out, there’s no clear answer at tight end, which opens the door for Whyle. He stole snaps from Luke Musgrave last week and scored on his only target. No Packers tight end had more than one catch, and the wide receiver room is crowded again with players returning. Add in the uncertainty around Josh Jacobs’ knee, and there may be a need for auxiliary help near the goal line. Whyle’s role is growing as he enters his third game with the team, and at this price, I’m comfortable throwing a full-unit dart.

Score a Touchdown

Emanuel Wilson Score a Touchdown (Yes: -110)

Projection 0.76 (Yes)

Best Odds

-110

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

-110

-120

-115

Our trusted projections expect Emanuel Wilson to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this week's contest (11.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Minnesota's collection of DTs has been very good this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

-110 at DraftKings

Score a Touchdown

Justin Jefferson Score a Touchdown (Yes: +200)

Projection 0.42 (Yes)

Best Odds

+200

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

+200

+190

+200

+197

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. Right now, the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (64.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.. Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.64 seconds per snap.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.. The model projects Justin Jefferson to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the goal line in this week's game (28.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (22.0% in games he has played).

+200 at DraftKings

Passing Attempts

J.J. McCarthy o30.5 Passing Attempts (-108)

Projection 33.17 (Over)

Best Odds

o30.5 -108

Pick made: 7 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o30.5 -116

o30.5 -114

o31.5 +100

o30.5 -108

-108 at Caesars

Passing Yards

J.J. McCarthy o186.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Projection 201.68 (Over)

Best Odds

o186.5 -112

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o187.5 -112

o186.5 -112

o190.5 -115

o187.5 -110

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. The model projects the Vikings to be the 10th-most pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 61.9% pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.64 seconds per snap.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.. When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings grades out as the 8th-best in football this year.

Receiving Yards

Luke Musgrave o18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 23.7 (Over)

Best Odds

o18.5 -110

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o19.5 -110

o19.5 -112

o18.5 -110

o18.5 -125

While Luke Musgrave has accounted for 5.3% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Green Bay's passing offense in this game at 12.0%.. With an outstanding 87.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (75th percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave stands among the best possession receivers in football among TEs.. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 7th-worst in the league.

-110 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Emanuel Wilson o12.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 17.06 (Over)

Best Odds

o12.5 -115

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o12.5 -115

In this contest, Emanuel Wilson is projected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.7 targets.. The projections expect Emanuel Wilson to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack in this week's game (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 7th-worst in the league.

-115 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Justin Jefferson o63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 69.55 (Over)

Best Odds

o63.5 -112

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o66.5 -110

o63.5 -112

o63.5 -115

o64.5 -115

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.57 seconds per snap.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.. Justin Jefferson has run a route on 97.2% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. In this week's contest, Justin Jefferson is projected by the model to land in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.5 targets.

Receiving Yards

T.J. Hockenson o24.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Projection 27.35 (Over)

Best Odds

o24.5 -112

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o25.5 -112

o24.5 -112

o24.5 -118

o24.5 -120

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.57 seconds per snap.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.. The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to garner 5.0 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.. When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings grades out as the 8th-best in football this year.

Rushing Yards

J.J. McCarthy o16.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Projection 23.68 (Over)

Best Odds

o16.5 -112

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o18.5 -111

o16.5 -112

o17.5 -115

o16.5 -117

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.57 seconds per snap.

Rushing Yards

Jordan Love o9.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Projection 14.42 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o12.5 -115

o9.5 -112

o9.5 -115

With a 6-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The model projects the Green Bay Packers as the 7th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. After making up 3.9% of his team's carries last year, Jordan Love has had a larger role in the running game this year, currently accounting for 9.5%.. Jordan Love's 13.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year signifies a material gain in his running ability over last year's 6.0 mark.. Jordan Love's running efficiency has gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.70 adjusted yards-per-carry vs just 4.94 mark last year.

-110 at BetMGM

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

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62% picking Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over

62% 62%

38% 38%

Total PicksMIN 601, GB 361

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Top User Picks

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'twobwin' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.5)

twobwin is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +6900 units on the season.

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'twobwin' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (41.0)

twobwin is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +6900 units on the season.

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'checkers' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.5)

checkers is #1 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (6-2-1) and +5350 units on the season.

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'checkers' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Under (41.5)

checkers is #1 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (6-2-1) and +5350 units on the season.

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'bigsmoke21169' is picking Minnesota to cover (+6.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #10 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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'bigsmoke21169' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (43.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #10 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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'CaliGold' is picking Minnesota to cover (+6.5)

CaliGold is #10 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4260 units on the season.

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'CaliGold' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Under (41.5)

CaliGold is #10 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4260 units on the season.

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'Sandsaver727' is picking Minnesota to cover (+6.5)

Sandsaver727 is #2 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (6-4-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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'Sandsaver727' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Under (43.5)

Sandsaver727 is #2 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (6-4-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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'number46' is picking Minnesota to cover (+6.5)

number46 is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +6850 units on the season.

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'number46' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (41.0)

number46 is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +6850 units on the season.

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'Fingerscrossed' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.5)

Fingerscrossed is #3 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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'vitom' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.5)

vitom is #3 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (6-2-1) and +4850 units on the season.

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'Fingerscrossed' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (41.5)

Fingerscrossed is #3 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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'vitom' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Under (41.5)

vitom is #3 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (6-2-1) and +4850 units on the season.

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'Jhusagic' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.0)

Jhusagic is #4 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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'Jhusagic' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (42.0)

Jhusagic is #4 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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'DeSade1980' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.5)

DeSade1980 is #4 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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'DeSade1980' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (41.5)

DeSade1980 is #4 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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'Roundrobinking' is picking Minnesota to cover (+6.5)

Roundrobinking is #5 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'Roundrobinking' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Under (40.5)

Roundrobinking is #5 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'n1stunnor' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.5)

n1stunnor is #5 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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'n1stunnor' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (41.5)

n1stunnor is #5 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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'rhinorey' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.5)

rhinorey is #6 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +5400 units on the season.

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'PlusOdds' is picking Minnesota to cover (+6.5)

PlusOdds is #6 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (6-0-1) and +4400 units on the season.

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'rhinorey' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (41.5)

rhinorey is #6 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +5400 units on the season.

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'PlusOdds' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (41.5)

PlusOdds is #6 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (6-0-1) and +4400 units on the season.

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'ark4455' is picking Minnesota to cover (+6.5)

ark4455 is #7 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (7-1-1) and +4300 units on the season.

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'wsop6' is picking Minnesota to cover (+6.5)

wsop6 is #7 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-0-0) and +5350 units on the season.

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'wsop6' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (41.5)

wsop6 is #7 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-0-0) and +5350 units on the season.

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'ark4455' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (41.5)

ark4455 is #7 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (7-1-1) and +4300 units on the season.

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'Batch9' is picking Minnesota to cover (+6.5)

Batch9 is #8 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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'Batch9' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Over (43.5)

Batch9 is #8 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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'greyford' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.5)

greyford is #9 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (5-4-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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'greyford' picks Minnesota vs Green Bay to go Under (43.5)

greyford is #9 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (5-4-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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