Green Bay Packers

Picks

Green Bay's defense has an aggressive, fast-flowing style that make them vulnerable on end-arounds. Ben Johnson will have to be creative and show the Packers looks that they didn't see in Weeks 14 and 16 so bet on him to get D.J. Moore involved in the run game. Moore was utilized that way earlier this season, rushing for more than 2.5 yards in six of his first eight games while totaling 12 carries over that span. However, he was given just three rush attempts his last nine games. The Bears need to get the ball into the hands of the speedy wideout and I think the ground game is how they do it.  

Reed is set up to slice and dice the Chicago defense. He’s the Packers’ primary slot receiver, which is a position the Bears struggle against. In his two games versus Chicago, Reed had three receptions for 35 yards and four catches for 41 yards. It’s not just receiving where Reed does damage. In those two meetings with the Bears, Reed was used as a ball carrier, drawing three carries for 28 total rushing yards. Most of his receiving projections sit around 45 yards while his rushing forecasts indicate at least one carry, with a ceiling of 5.5 rushing yards.

There were a few solid TD options in this game around the +200 range, including Romeo Doubs and Luther Burden, but I’m backing the rookie tight end who has drawn 23 targets over the last two weeks and leads the team with four red-zone targets in that span. Even stretching back to Weeks 10 through 17 (excluding Week 18 with Green Bay resting starters), Colston Loveland’s eight red-zone targets still pace all Packers pass catchers. This is his longest TD price in over a month after being as short as -150 last week against Detroit.

I like Chicago in this game and I like it for the way the Bears have been running the ball. But all that run opens up over-the-top shots for Caleb Willliams and Ben Johnson’s play-action attack. The Packers secondary isn’t great without a pass rush causing chaos and got burned on some big plays from Williams in their Week 16 meeting, longs of 46, 34, 27 yards. This pass defense has been protected otherwise, taking on the Vikes mish-mash of QBs last week, Snoop Huntley the week before, and a conservative Bo Nix. For better or worse, Williams will let it fly and I believe he’ll have his chances Saturday to go Over 32.5 on his longest completion.

Moore recorded 38 or more receiving yards in 10 of 18 games, including going good for a season-high 97 yards on five receptions against the Packers in Week 16. He was a limited participant in Tuesday’s practice with a knee injury, but I’m expecting the go-to wideout to be on the field and involved Saturday. Moore paced the Chicago receiving corps in snap percentage while finishing second in targets, receptions and receiving yards. This total is too low.

This is a Top-5 attack in terms of EPA per play since Week 12, with a two-headed monster forming at running back (D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai) and really giving Ben Johnson’s playbook dimension. Chicago grinded for 99 yards or more on the ground in the six games prior to Week 18’s flop against the Lions. The Bears topped 130 rushing yards in four of those games, including 138 and 150 yards in two matchups with Green Bay. Winning the war on the turf makes life easier for everyone in Chitown. Those gains on the ground set up for shorter third downs, activate Johnson’s vaunted play-action schemes, make the Packers’ soft secondary vulnerable to random deep shots, and chew up possession which in turn boosts the Bears’ defense and forces Green Bay to be one-dimensional with limited offensive touches.