Green Bay Packers

Picks

D’Andre Swift clearly led the backfield last week, getting the first crack at touches and never giving way to Kyle Monangai. That role carried over near the goal line as well, with Swift handling two red-zone carries against the Browns in Week 15 and turning them into 23 yards and two touchdowns. Monangai struggled to get going, while Chicago leaned heavily on Swift’s ability to win on the edge and especially later in the game. He accounted for 10 of the 14 running back opportunities in the second half and appears to be the more trusted option late in games right now. With uncertainty around the Bears’ pass catchers and questions on the Packers’ side as well, Swift at +115 to +120 stands out as my favorite touchdown prop in this matchup. 

Without the star pass rusher, this Packers defensive line is far less dangerous and runs into a Chicago offensive line ranked among the best pass protectors and run blockers in the NFL. The big bodies up front are No. 1 in pass block win rate and No. 4 in run block win rate at ESPN — one of only five O-lines to rank Top 10 in both metrics. Williams, who averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt in Week 14, will now have more time to allow deeper plays to develop. And the Bears’ run game is picking up steam. It rushed for 138 yards on 32 carries against Green Bay and is averaging five yards per carry over the past three games. The short turnaround not only compounds the Packers' injuries but puts the schedule squeeze on the Cheeseheads, having to play back-to-back road games and three away games in the last four weeks.