Green Bay Packers

4th in NFC North (1 - 1 - 0)

Next Game

Thu, Sep 24 20:15 ET

ATL @ GB Picks

NFL Picks
Spread
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail GB -5.5 (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Jon Metler logo
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst

Give me the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football as a 5.5-point favorite, as I price them closer to a 6.5-point favorite in this matchup. Sure, Michael Penix Jr. is back, which means Falcons fans don't have to suffer through Cooper Rush anymore, but this is Penix's first game back in 10 months following major knee surgery, and he'll be facing a tough road environment. The market is moving toward the Falcons, as the Packers were initially 7-point favorites following their Week 2 overtime victory over the New York Jets. But with the line dropping to Packers -5.5, there's a buy opportunity here, as I make the Packers closer to -6.5 and believe the opening line was closer to the correct number.

Rushing Yards
MarShawn Lloyd logo MarShawn Lloyd o26.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

This is a low number for Lloyd, and I’d recommend him to Over 29.5 for Thursday Night Football. He closed with a 45.5 rushing yards total in Week 2 and at 50.5 in the season opener, after all. Additionally, while Lloyd has been held to just 3.0 yards per carry and 2.11 yards after contact per attempt, he’s handled a healthy 48.7% of the Green Bay rushes and did post a high-end 87.5 PFF elusive rating in Week 1.

Receiving Yards
Bijan Robinson logo Bijan Robinson o39.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Joe Osborne logo
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

Bijan topped this number comfortably in Week 1 with eight catches for 90 yards before a Week 2 blowout shortened his workload. He averaged 53.7 receiving yards on 6.2 targets in Penix’s starts last season, clearing 39.5 in five of nine games. Against Green Bay’s stout run defense, Atlanta could lean on short passes to get its best weapon involved.

Total
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail Green Bay Packers image thumbnail u44.5 (-111)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Joe Osborne logo
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

Penix improves Atlanta’s quarterback situation, but the Falcons averaged only 16 PPG in his five road starts last season where his stats fell off a cliff. Green Bay managed just 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2 and are dealing with injuries to Jayden Reed and multiple offensive linemen . On a short week, neither offense looks ready to roll against defenses allowing fewer than three yards per carry. Expect stalled drives and points to be at a premium on TNF.

Receiving Yards
Drake London logo Drake London o60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Penix playing is a big pop for WR Drake London. He’s the QB’s favorite target and faces a zone-anchored pass defense from the Packers, who are dropping back in zone on almost 80% of snaps. London rated out No. 4 among WRs versus zone coverage in 2025 and is currently No. 8 against zone in 2026, despite crappy QBs throwing him the ball. His projections all sit north of 60 yards, ranging from 62 to 72 yards with my number coming out to 67+ receiving yards on Thursday. The Falcons +6.5 is a negative game script, so we’ll see plenty of passing from the visitor.

Rushing Yards
MarShawn Lloyd logo MarShawn Lloyd o26.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Marshawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson got the bulk of the work in Week 2 and even with LaFleur stating Johnson will see more touches, Lloyd’s downhill running style and positive projections have me taking his Over on rushing yards Thursday. The Atlanta Falcons also sit among the better run stop units, rated sixth in run stop win rate and seventh in both EPA allowed per handoff and opponent success rate per run. That said, the Falcons have been great getting to outside runners but are bullied on power pushes up the middle, rating dead last at FTN. Lloyd’s Week 3 forecasts are very positive, sitting between 45 and 57 yards. That’s well past his rushing yards market and offers value to ladder his gains on the ground (40+, 50+, and 60+).

Spread
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail GB -6.5 (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
Dustin Saracini logo
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst

While the Packers have been bad in their own right, the Falcons have been arguably the worst team in the NFL, ranking 29th in total offense and dead-last in passing (to nobody's surprise) with just 129 yards through the air per game through two weeks of the season. Even with Penix starting, going on the road to Lambeau Field to take on a hungry Packers team that ranks fifth in total defense will be a tall task. Talk about being thrown into the fire.

3 LEG PARLAY
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
ATL +6.5
Spread
Bijan Robinson profile picture
Bijan Robinson o39.5 Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards
Bijan Robinson profile picture
Bijan Robinson Score a Touchdown (Yes)
Anytime Touchdown
Bet now
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Joe Osborne logo
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

Atlanta doesn’t need to suddenly become elite to cover +6.5 against a struggling, injured Packers offense that managed just 199 total yards last week. The Falcons’ defense can keep this close, while getting Bijan Robinson more involved should be priority No. 1. 

He opened the season with eight catches for 90 yards and averaged 53.7 receiving yards in Penix’s starts last season, making 40+ a reasonable ask. With Green Bay tough against the run, short passes offer another way to feed Atlanta’s best playmaker. 

Add a Bijan touchdown, and we’re backing the Falcons to have the common sense (a lot to ask, I know) to put their biggest weapon to work in a pretty big desperation spot for the team.

Passing Yards
Jordan Love logo
Jordan Love o221.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 251.5 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jordan Love to throw 36.4 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a remarkable tally of 214.0 adjusted passing yards per game (85th percentile), Jordan Love places among the best quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the weak Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded the 6th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to the opposing side: a colossal 0.54 YAC.
Rushing Yards
MarShawn Lloyd logo
MarShawn Lloyd o27.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Projection 57.03 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Rushing Yards
Kaleb Johnson logo
Kaleb Johnson o37.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 53.47 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 39 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Rushing Yards
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Michael Penix Jr. o3.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Projection 10.51 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.
Rushing Yards
Jordan Love logo
Jordan Love o8.5 Rushing Yards (-107)
Projection 11.26 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. With an exceptional rate of 6.2 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (80th percentile), Jordan Love ranks among the top running QBs in the league since the start of last season.
Rushing Yards
Bijan Robinson logo
Bijan Robinson o78.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 81.39 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. This week, Bijan Robinson is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 98th percentile among running backs with 20.8 carries.. Among all RBs, Bijan Robinson grades out in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 65.5% of the workload in his offense's running game.
Receiving Yards
MarShawn Lloyd logo
MarShawn Lloyd o4.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 9.91 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Falcons linebackers profile as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Receiving Yards
Christian Watson logo
Christian Watson o62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 74.29 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this week's game, Christian Watson is predicted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.7 targets.. In regards to air yards, Christian Watson grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 101.0 per game.. Christian Watson rates in the 86th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 57.3 mark since the start of last season.
Receiving Yards
Drake London logo
Drake London o63.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 71.73 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup QB Cooper Rush in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -6.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Drake London comes in as one of the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 62.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.
Receiving Yards
Bijan Robinson logo
Bijan Robinson u40.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 35.06 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's group of safeties has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

70% picking Green Bay

30%
70%

Total Picks ATL 223, GB 514

Spread
ATL
GB
Total

45% picking Atlanta vs Green Bay to go Under

55%
45%

Total PicksATL 272, GB 219

Total
Over
Under

ATL @ GB · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
ATL +5.5 spread
4.46 PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
ATL +5.5 spread

PROJECTION

4.46 PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.43% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+5.5 -104
FanDuel logo
TOTAL
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
Over 44.0 Total
46.59 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
16.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
Over 44.0 Total

PROJECTION

46.59 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
16.42% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o43.5 -114
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards
251.50 OVER PROJECTION
+30.0 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

251.50 OVER PROJECTION
+30.0 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jordan Love to throw 36.4 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a remarkable tally of 214.0 adjusted passing yards per game (85th percentile), Jordan Love places among the best quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the weak Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded the 6th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to the opposing side: a colossal 0.54 YAC.

o221.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) o27.5 Rushing Yards
57.03 OVER PROJECTION
+29.5 DIFFERENCE
26.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) o27.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

57.03 OVER PROJECTION
+29.5 DIFFERENCE
26.6% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

o25.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Kaleb Johnson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
K. Johnson (RB) o37.5 Rushing Yards
53.47 OVER PROJECTION
+16.0 DIFFERENCE
26.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kaleb Johnson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
K. Johnson (RB) o37.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

53.47 OVER PROJECTION
+16.0 DIFFERENCE
26.38% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

o35.5 -140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) o3.5 Rushing Yards
10.51 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
26.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) o3.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

10.51 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
26.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.

o3.5 -111
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o8.5 Rushing Yards
11.26 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
22.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o8.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

11.26 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
22.49% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. With an exceptional rate of 6.2 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (80th percentile), Jordan Love ranks among the top running QBs in the league since the start of last season.

o7.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o78.5 Rushing Yards
81.39 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
22.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o78.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

81.39 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
22.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. This week, Bijan Robinson is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 98th percentile among running backs with 20.8 carries.. Among all RBs, Bijan Robinson grades out in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 65.5% of the workload in his offense's running game.

o75.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards
9.91 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
25.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

9.91 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
25.76% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Falcons linebackers profile as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o4.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) o62.5 Receiving Yards
74.29 OVER PROJECTION
+11.8 DIFFERENCE
24.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) o62.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

74.29 OVER PROJECTION
+11.8 DIFFERENCE
24.54% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this week's game, Christian Watson is predicted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.7 targets.. In regards to air yards, Christian Watson grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 101.0 per game.. Christian Watson rates in the 86th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 57.3 mark since the start of last season.

o62.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o63.5 Receiving Yards
71.73 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
23.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o63.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

71.73 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
23.77% EV

ANALYSIS

The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup QB Cooper Rush in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -6.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Drake London comes in as one of the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 62.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

o63.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u40.5 Receiving Yards
35.06 UNDER PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
22.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

35.06 UNDER PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
22.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's group of safeties has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

u40.5 -113
Caesars logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) u3.5 Receptions Made
2.84 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
19.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) u3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.84 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
19.02% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. While Kyle Pitts has earned 21.7% of his offense's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Atlanta's pass game in this game at 14.0%.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's group of safeties has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

u3.5 +102
Caesars logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.85 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.85 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.13% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this week's game, Christian Watson is predicted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.7 targets.. Christian Watson rates in the 86th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 57.3 mark since the start of last season.. With a terrific 3.8 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian Watson has been among the best WRs in the league in the league.

o4.5 -120
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o17.5 Rushing Attempts
18.43 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
3.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o17.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

18.43 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
3.96% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. This week, Bijan Robinson is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 98th percentile among running backs with 20.8 carries.. Among all RBs, Bijan Robinson grades out in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 65.5% of the workload in his offense's running game.

o17.5 -122
Caesars logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts
2.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

2.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.95% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

o2.5 -120
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts
34.62 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.62 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.11% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jordan Love to throw 36.4 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.

o19.5 -10000
theScore Bet logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts
29.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.2 DIFFERENCE
14.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

29.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.2 DIFFERENCE
14.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.

u31.5 -120
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o17.5 Passing Completions
20.86 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
15.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o17.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.86 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
15.52% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jordan Love to throw 36.4 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.. The Falcons linebackers profile as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o17.5 -225
theScore Bet logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions
19.30 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

19.30 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.72% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's group of safeties has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

u19.5 -120
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.57 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.57 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.16% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Since the start of last season, the strong Falcons run defense has surrendered a meager 0.63 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.. The Falcons linebackers profile as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

+200
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.63% EV

ANALYSIS

The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup QB Michael Penix in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -6.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.. As it relates to air yards, Drake London grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 86.0 per game.

+200
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. While Christian Watson has received 16.4% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Green Bay's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 23.8%.. In regards to air yards, Christian Watson grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 101.0 per game.. Christian Watson grades out in the 99th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 0.75 per game.

+150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.29% EV

ANALYSIS

The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup QB Michael Penix in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -6.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the weak Packers defense has surrendered a whopping 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

+1100
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.13 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.13 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.7% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jordan Love to throw 36.4 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a terrific ratio of 1.50 per game (82nd percentile), Jordan Love stands as one of the leading TD passers in the league since the start of last season.. 0: the number of rushing TDs Jordan Love has scored since the start of last season.

+750
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kaleb Johnson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
K. Johnson (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.36 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kaleb Johnson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
K. Johnson (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.36 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.04% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Since the start of last season, the strong Falcons run defense has surrendered a meager 0.63 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.. The Falcons linebackers profile as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

+210
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.26% EV

ANALYSIS

The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup QB Michael Penix in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -6.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Kyle Pitts has accumulated a monstrous 48.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among tight ends.

+390
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.59 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-4.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.59 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-4.91% EV

ANALYSIS

The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup QB Michael Penix in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -6.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.. With a remarkable 20.6% Red Zone Target Rate (99th percentile) last year, Bijan Robinson places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.

-150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
16.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
16.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's group of safeties has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

u0.5 -105
bet365 logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.2% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The 9th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Packers since the start of last season (just 54.9 per game on average).. In tallying only 0.39 interceptions per game since the start of last season, Jordan Love ranks among the leading quarterbacks in the NFL (75th percentile).. Atlanta's defense profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season when it comes to causing interceptions, averaging 0.85 per game.

u0.5 -121
BetRivers logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
ATL +5.5 spread
4.46 PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
ATL +5.5 spread

PROJECTION

4.46 PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.43% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+5.5 -104
FanDuel logo
TOTAL
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
Over 44.0 Total
46.59 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
16.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
Over 44.0 Total

PROJECTION

46.59 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
16.42% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o43.5 -114
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards
251.50 OVER PROJECTION
+30.0 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

251.50 OVER PROJECTION
+30.0 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jordan Love to throw 36.4 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a remarkable tally of 214.0 adjusted passing yards per game (85th percentile), Jordan Love places among the best quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the weak Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded the 6th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to the opposing side: a colossal 0.54 YAC.

o221.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) o27.5 Rushing Yards
57.03 OVER PROJECTION
+29.5 DIFFERENCE
26.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) o27.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

57.03 OVER PROJECTION
+29.5 DIFFERENCE
26.6% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

o25.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Kaleb Johnson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
K. Johnson (RB) o37.5 Rushing Yards
53.47 OVER PROJECTION
+16.0 DIFFERENCE
26.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kaleb Johnson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
K. Johnson (RB) o37.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

53.47 OVER PROJECTION
+16.0 DIFFERENCE
26.38% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

o35.5 -140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) o3.5 Rushing Yards
10.51 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
26.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) o3.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

10.51 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
26.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.

o3.5 -111
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o8.5 Rushing Yards
11.26 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
22.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o8.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

11.26 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
22.49% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. With an exceptional rate of 6.2 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (80th percentile), Jordan Love ranks among the top running QBs in the league since the start of last season.

o7.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o78.5 Rushing Yards
81.39 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
22.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o78.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

81.39 OVER PROJECTION
+2.9 DIFFERENCE
22.2% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. This week, Bijan Robinson is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 98th percentile among running backs with 20.8 carries.. Among all RBs, Bijan Robinson grades out in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 65.5% of the workload in his offense's running game.

o75.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards
9.91 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
25.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

9.91 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
25.76% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Falcons linebackers profile as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o4.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) o62.5 Receiving Yards
74.29 OVER PROJECTION
+11.8 DIFFERENCE
24.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) o62.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

74.29 OVER PROJECTION
+11.8 DIFFERENCE
24.54% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this week's game, Christian Watson is predicted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.7 targets.. In regards to air yards, Christian Watson grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 101.0 per game.. Christian Watson rates in the 86th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 57.3 mark since the start of last season.

o62.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o63.5 Receiving Yards
71.73 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
23.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o63.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

71.73 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
23.77% EV

ANALYSIS

The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup QB Cooper Rush in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -6.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Drake London comes in as one of the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 62.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

o63.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u40.5 Receiving Yards
35.06 UNDER PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
22.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

35.06 UNDER PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
22.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's group of safeties has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

u40.5 -113
Caesars logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) u3.5 Receptions Made
2.84 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
19.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) u3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.84 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
19.02% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. While Kyle Pitts has earned 21.7% of his offense's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Atlanta's pass game in this game at 14.0%.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's group of safeties has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

u3.5 +102
Caesars logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.85 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.85 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.13% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. In this week's game, Christian Watson is predicted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.7 targets.. Christian Watson rates in the 86th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 57.3 mark since the start of last season.. With a terrific 3.8 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian Watson has been among the best WRs in the league in the league.

o4.5 -120
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o17.5 Rushing Attempts
18.43 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
3.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o17.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

18.43 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
3.96% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. This week, Bijan Robinson is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 98th percentile among running backs with 20.8 carries.. Among all RBs, Bijan Robinson grades out in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 65.5% of the workload in his offense's running game.

o17.5 -122
Caesars logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts
2.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

2.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.95% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

o2.5 -120
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts
34.62 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.62 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.11% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jordan Love to throw 36.4 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.

o19.5 -10000
theScore Bet logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts
29.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.2 DIFFERENCE
14.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

29.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.2 DIFFERENCE
14.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.

u31.5 -120
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o17.5 Passing Completions
20.86 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
15.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) o17.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.86 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
15.52% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jordan Love to throw 36.4 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.. The Falcons linebackers profile as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o17.5 -225
theScore Bet logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions
19.30 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

19.30 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.72% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's group of safeties has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

u19.5 -120
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.57 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
MarShawn Lloyd logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
M. Lloyd (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.57 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.16% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Since the start of last season, the strong Falcons run defense has surrendered a meager 0.63 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.. The Falcons linebackers profile as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

+200
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.63% EV

ANALYSIS

The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup QB Michael Penix in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -6.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.. As it relates to air yards, Drake London grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 86.0 per game.

+200
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Christian Watson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
C. Watson (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. While Christian Watson has received 16.4% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Green Bay's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 23.8%.. In regards to air yards, Christian Watson grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 101.0 per game.. Christian Watson grades out in the 99th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 0.75 per game.

+150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.29% EV

ANALYSIS

The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup QB Michael Penix in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -6.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the weak Packers defense has surrendered a whopping 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

+1100
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.13 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.13 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.7% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jordan Love to throw 36.4 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a terrific ratio of 1.50 per game (82nd percentile), Jordan Love stands as one of the leading TD passers in the league since the start of last season.. 0: the number of rushing TDs Jordan Love has scored since the start of last season.

+750
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kaleb Johnson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
K. Johnson (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.36 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kaleb Johnson logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
K. Johnson (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.36 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
3.04% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (65.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Since the start of last season, the strong Falcons run defense has surrendered a meager 0.63 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.. The Falcons linebackers profile as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

+210
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.26% EV

ANALYSIS

The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup QB Michael Penix in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -6.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Kyle Pitts has accumulated a monstrous 48.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among tight ends.

+390
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.59 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-4.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.59 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-4.91% EV

ANALYSIS

The Falcons will be forced to utilize backup QB Michael Penix in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -6.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.. With a remarkable 20.6% Red Zone Target Rate (99th percentile) last year, Bijan Robinson places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.

-150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
16.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Michael Penix Jr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
M. Penix Jr. (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
16.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Atlanta's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's group of safeties has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

u0.5 -105
bet365 logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jordan Love logo
Green Bay Packers image thumbnail
J. Love (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
13.2% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. The 9th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Packers since the start of last season (just 54.9 per game on average).. In tallying only 0.39 interceptions per game since the start of last season, Jordan Love ranks among the leading quarterbacks in the NFL (75th percentile).. Atlanta's defense profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season when it comes to causing interceptions, averaging 0.85 per game.

u0.5 -121
BetRivers logo

Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'hoosline' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.5)

hoosline is #1 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'hoosline' picks Atlanta vs Green Bay to go Under (46.5)

hoosline is #1 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'U8305' picks Atlanta vs Green Bay to go Under (43.5)

U8305 is #1 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'U8305' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.5)

U8305 is #1 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'plasma9' picks Atlanta vs Green Bay to go Under (44.5)

plasma9 is #10 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'liveactiondockery' is picking Atlanta to cover (+6.5)

liveactiondockery is #3 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'liveactiondockery' picks Atlanta vs Green Bay to go Over (43.5)

liveactiondockery is #3 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'BlindLuck' is picking Green Bay to cover (-7.0)

BlindLuck is #4 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'BlindLuck' picks Atlanta vs Green Bay to go Under (44.5)

BlindLuck is #4 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'MAFIVARO' is picking Atlanta to cover (+6.5)

MAFIVARO is #5 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'MAFIVARO' picks Atlanta vs Green Bay to go Under (43.5)

MAFIVARO is #5 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'crsdonovan89000' is picking Green Bay to cover (-7.0)

crsdonovan89000 is #6 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'hilldog23' is picking Green Bay to cover (-6.5)

hilldog23 is #6 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'hilldog23' picks Atlanta vs Green Bay to go Over (43.5)

hilldog23 is #6 on picking games that Green Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'outkastd4eva' picks Atlanta vs Green Bay to go Over (43.5)

outkastd4eva is #7 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'outkastd4eva' is picking Green Bay to cover (-5.5)

outkastd4eva is #7 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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