Green Bay Packers Picks
4th in NFC North
(1 - 1 - 0)
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ATL @ GB Picks
NFL PicksGive me the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football as a 5.5-point favorite, as I price them closer to a 6.5-point favorite in this matchup. Sure, Michael Penix Jr. is back, which means Falcons fans don't have to suffer through Cooper Rush anymore, but this is Penix's first game back in 10 months following major knee surgery, and he'll be facing a tough road environment. The market is moving toward the Falcons, as the Packers were initially 7-point favorites following their Week 2 overtime victory over the New York Jets. But with the line dropping to Packers -5.5, there's a buy opportunity here, as I make the Packers closer to -6.5 and believe the opening line was closer to the correct number.
This is a low number for Lloyd, and I’d recommend him to Over 29.5 for Thursday Night Football. He closed with a 45.5 rushing yards total in Week 2 and at 50.5 in the season opener, after all. Additionally, while Lloyd has been held to just 3.0 yards per carry and 2.11 yards after contact per attempt, he’s handled a healthy 48.7% of the Green Bay rushes and did post a high-end 87.5 PFF elusive rating in Week 1.
Bijan topped this number comfortably in Week 1 with eight catches for 90 yards before a Week 2 blowout shortened his workload. He averaged 53.7 receiving yards on 6.2 targets in Penix’s starts last season, clearing 39.5 in five of nine games. Against Green Bay’s stout run defense, Atlanta could lean on short passes to get its best weapon involved.
Penix improves Atlanta’s quarterback situation, but the Falcons averaged only 16 PPG in his five road starts last season where his stats fell off a cliff. Green Bay managed just 199 yards against the Jets in Week 2 and are dealing with injuries to Jayden Reed and multiple offensive linemen . On a short week, neither offense looks ready to roll against defenses allowing fewer than three yards per carry. Expect stalled drives and points to be at a premium on TNF.
Penix playing is a big pop for WR Drake London. He’s the QB’s favorite target and faces a zone-anchored pass defense from the Packers, who are dropping back in zone on almost 80% of snaps. London rated out No. 4 among WRs versus zone coverage in 2025 and is currently No. 8 against zone in 2026, despite crappy QBs throwing him the ball. His projections all sit north of 60 yards, ranging from 62 to 72 yards with my number coming out to 67+ receiving yards on Thursday. The Falcons +6.5 is a negative game script, so we’ll see plenty of passing from the visitor.
Marshawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson got the bulk of the work in Week 2 and even with LaFleur stating Johnson will see more touches, Lloyd’s downhill running style and positive projections have me taking his Over on rushing yards Thursday. The Atlanta Falcons also sit among the better run stop units, rated sixth in run stop win rate and seventh in both EPA allowed per handoff and opponent success rate per run. That said, the Falcons have been great getting to outside runners but are bullied on power pushes up the middle, rating dead last at FTN. Lloyd’s Week 3 forecasts are very positive, sitting between 45 and 57 yards. That’s well past his rushing yards market and offers value to ladder his gains on the ground (40+, 50+, and 60+).
While the Packers have been bad in their own right, the Falcons have been arguably the worst team in the NFL, ranking 29th in total offense and dead-last in passing (to nobody's surprise) with just 129 yards through the air per game through two weeks of the season. Even with Penix starting, going on the road to Lambeau Field to take on a hungry Packers team that ranks fifth in total defense will be a tall task. Talk about being thrown into the fire.
Atlanta doesn’t need to suddenly become elite to cover +6.5 against a struggling, injured Packers offense that managed just 199 total yards last week. The Falcons’ defense can keep this close, while getting Bijan Robinson more involved should be priority No. 1.
He opened the season with eight catches for 90 yards and averaged 53.7 receiving yards in Penix’s starts last season, making 40+ a reasonable ask. With Green Bay tough against the run, short passes offer another way to feed Atlanta’s best playmaker.
Add a Bijan touchdown, and we’re backing the Falcons to have the common sense (a lot to ask, I know) to put their biggest weapon to work in a pretty big desperation spot for the team.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusATL @ GB · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
44.0 Total
46.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
16.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Love
(QB)
o221.5 Passing Yards
251.50 OVER
PROJECTION
+30.0
DIFFERENCE
25.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
M. Lloyd
(RB)
o27.5 Rushing Yards
57.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+29.5
DIFFERENCE
26.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
K. Johnson
(RB)
o37.5 Rushing Yards
53.47 OVER
PROJECTION
+16.0
DIFFERENCE
26.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
M. Penix Jr.
(QB)
o3.5 Rushing Yards
10.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.0
DIFFERENCE
26.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Love
(QB)
o8.5 Rushing Yards
11.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.8
DIFFERENCE
22.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
B. Robinson
(RB)
o78.5 Rushing Yards
81.39 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
22.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Lloyd
(RB)
o4.5 Receiving Yards
9.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.4
DIFFERENCE
25.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Watson
(WR)
o62.5 Receiving Yards
74.29 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.8
DIFFERENCE
24.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. London
(WR)
o63.5 Receiving Yards
71.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.2
DIFFERENCE
23.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Robinson
(RB)
u40.5 Receiving Yards
35.06 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.4
DIFFERENCE
22.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
K. Pitts Sr.
(TE)
u3.5 Receptions Made
2.84 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
19.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Watson
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions Made
4.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-3.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
B. Robinson
(RB)
o17.5 Rushing Attempts
18.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
3.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Love
(QB)
o2.5 Rushing Attempts
2.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-3.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Love
(QB)
o30.5 Passing Attempts
34.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.1
DIFFERENCE
19.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
M. Penix Jr.
(QB)
u31.5 Passing Attempts
29.32 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.2
DIFFERENCE
14.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Love
(QB)
o17.5 Passing Completions
20.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.4
DIFFERENCE
15.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
M. Penix Jr.
(QB)
u19.5 Passing Completions
19.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-5.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Lloyd
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.57 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
24.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. London
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.42 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
17.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Watson
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.52 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
17.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Penix Jr.
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Love
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.13 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
3.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Johnson
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.36 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
3.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Pitts Sr.
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-2.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Robinson
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.59 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-4.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
M. Penix Jr.
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.41 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
16.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Love
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
13.2%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low