Detroit Lions

3rd in NFC North (4 - 2 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Nov 1 13:00 ET

MIN @ DET Picks

NFL Picks
Anytime Touchdown
T.J. Hockenson logo T.J. Hockenson Score a Touchdown (Yes: +280)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 hours ago
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I recommend Hockenson finding the end zone up to 31% because he has garnered a solid 33.3% target share in the red zone and scored last week. The Lions have also surrendered a league-high 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, including yielding a score to the position in five of six games. Of course, Hockenson also ranks second in EPA per target among tight ends.

Passing Completions
Kyler Murray logo Kyler Murray o19.5 Passing Completions (-118)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 hours ago
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

This Over is in play up to 56% because Murray has a respectable 66.7 completion percentage and ranks sixth in completion percentage over expectation over the past five weeks. The Lions have also surrendered the second-most passing completion despite playing just six games, and Detroit has allowed the fifth-highest dropback success rate.

Spread
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail MIN +3.5 (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 20 hours ago
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I recommend taking the points with Minnesota above the key number of 3 to 56%. Minnesota has allowed the fewest points per game and lowest EPA per play while ranking second in defensive DVOA, so I don’t expect the Lions to win by margin. It’s also an entirely different story for the Detroit defense, with the Lions allowing the highest EPA per play while ranking 25th in defensive DVOA, and the Vikings won outright as +9.5 and +7.5 underdogs in both 2025 meetings between the NFC North rivals last season.

Anytime Touchdown
Jordan Mason logo Jordan Mason Score a Touchdown (Yes: +117)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Aaron Jones exited last week, but even before the injury, Jordan Mason was eating up the biggest share of the RB pie with 57% of the backfield opportunities. Jones has always struggled to stay healthy and aggravated an existing knee injury last week. Mason could be the lead back on a defense-first team that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in PROE.  The Lions are one of seven teams allowing 27+ points per game and rank 27th in red-zone TD%. Jones didn't practice Wednesday, and this price should be 54% if he's out.

3 LEG PARLAY
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
MIN +3.5
Spread
Kyler Murray profile picture
Kyler Murray o19.5 Passing Completions
Passing Completions
T.J. Hockenson profile picture
T.J. Hockenson o39.5 Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards
Bet now
Pick made: 19 hours ago
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Minnesota has allowed the fewest points per game and lowest EPA per play while ranking second in defensive DVOA, so I don’t expect Detroit to win by margin. Murray also has a respectable 66.7 completion percentage and ranks sixth in completion percentage over expectation over the past five weeks, while the Lions have also surrendered the second-most passing completion despite playing just six games. Detroit has also been particularly vulnerable to tight ends and allowed a league-high 602 receiving yards to the position, so with Hockenson ranking second in EPA per target among tight ends, he’s set for success against his former team.

Passing Yards
Kyler Murray logo
Kyler Murray o221.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 243.22 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.
Passing Yards
Jared Goff logo
Jared Goff o254.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 275.29 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jared Goff is projected by the projections to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.9. . Jared Goff's 296.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a remarkable growth in his passing prowess over last year's 239.0 mark.
Rushing Yards
Jared Goff logo
Jared Goff o0.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 4.75 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).
Rushing Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Jahmyr Gibbs o87.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 95.88 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. In this week's contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is expected by the projections to place in the 100th percentile among running backs with 22.2 rush attempts.. Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (109.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).
Rushing Yards
Kyler Murray logo
Kyler Murray o21.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 26.84 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 34 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The projections expect Kyler Murray to notch 4.7 carries in this contest, on average: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Our trusted projections expect Kyler Murray to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack in this contest (17.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.1% in games he has played).. With a fantastic rate of 24.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (82nd percentile), Kyler Murray stands among the best running quarterbacks in the league this year.. The Detroit Lions defense has had the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 4.68 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Receiving Yards
T.J. Hockenson logo
T.J. Hockenson o38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 49.29 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.. T.J. Hockenson's 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season reflects a significant growth in his pass-catching skills over last season's 27.0 rate.
Receiving Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Amon-Ra St. Brown o77.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Projection 90.3 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 40 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is forecasted by the projections to land in the 99th percentile among WRs with 11.3 targets.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 94.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a material improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 78.0 rate.
Receiving Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Jahmyr Gibbs o32.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 39.46 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 32 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jahmyr Gibbs is predicted by the projections to place in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 6.5 targets.. Jahmyr Gibbs's 46.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 33.0 figure.
Receiving Yards
Justin Jefferson logo
Justin Jefferson o76.5 Receiving Yards (-117)
Projection 81.38 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.. Justin Jefferson's 63.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year represents a noteable boost in his receiving skills over last year's 52.0 mark.
Rushing Attempts
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Jahmyr Gibbs u22.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)
Projection 19.98 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. The Vikings defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

47% picking Minnesota

47%
53%

Total Picks MIN 358, DET 403

Spread
MIN
DET
Total

49% picking Minnesota vs Detroit to go Under

51%
49%

Total PicksMIN 242, DET 228

Total
Over
Under

MIN @ DET · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -3.5 spread
-5.09 PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
13.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -3.5 spread

PROJECTION

-5.09 PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
13.06% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-3.5 +100
FanDuel logo
TOTAL
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 45.5 Total
50.59 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
21.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 45.5 Total

PROJECTION

50.59 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
21.25% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o45.5 -108
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards
243.22 OVER PROJECTION
+21.7 DIFFERENCE
24.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

243.22 OVER PROJECTION
+21.7 DIFFERENCE
24.6% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.

o218.5 -125
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o254.5 Passing Yards
275.29 OVER PROJECTION
+20.8 DIFFERENCE
23.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o254.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

275.29 OVER PROJECTION
+20.8 DIFFERENCE
23.89% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jared Goff is projected by the projections to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.9. . Jared Goff's 296.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a remarkable growth in his passing prowess over last year's 239.0 mark.

o254.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
4.75 OVER PROJECTION
+4.3 DIFFERENCE
26.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

4.75 OVER PROJECTION
+4.3 DIFFERENCE
26.42% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).

o0.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o87.5 Rushing Yards
95.88 OVER PROJECTION
+8.4 DIFFERENCE
24.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o87.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

95.88 OVER PROJECTION
+8.4 DIFFERENCE
24.12% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. In this week's contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is expected by the projections to place in the 100th percentile among running backs with 22.2 rush attempts.. Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (109.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).

o84.5 -110
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING YARDS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards
26.84 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
21.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

26.84 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
21.84% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The projections expect Kyler Murray to notch 4.7 carries in this contest, on average: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Our trusted projections expect Kyler Murray to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack in this contest (17.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.1% in games he has played).. With a fantastic rate of 24.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (82nd percentile), Kyler Murray stands among the best running quarterbacks in the league this year.. The Detroit Lions defense has had the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 4.68 adjusted yards-per-carry.

o20.5 -150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o38.5 Receiving Yards
49.29 OVER PROJECTION
+10.8 DIFFERENCE
25.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o38.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

49.29 OVER PROJECTION
+10.8 DIFFERENCE
25.38% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.. T.J. Hockenson's 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season reflects a significant growth in his pass-catching skills over last season's 27.0 rate.

o38.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o77.5 Receiving Yards
90.30 OVER PROJECTION
+12.8 DIFFERENCE
25.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o77.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

90.30 OVER PROJECTION
+12.8 DIFFERENCE
25.36% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is forecasted by the projections to land in the 99th percentile among WRs with 11.3 targets.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 94.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a material improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 78.0 rate.

o75.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o32.5 Receiving Yards
39.46 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
23.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o32.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

39.46 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
23.87% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jahmyr Gibbs is predicted by the projections to place in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 6.5 targets.. Jahmyr Gibbs's 46.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 33.0 figure.

o30.5 -140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o76.5 Receiving Yards
81.38 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
18.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o76.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

81.38 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
18.04% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.. Justin Jefferson's 63.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year represents a noteable boost in his receiving skills over last year's 52.0 mark.

o70.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o48.5 Receiving Yards
48.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-13.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o48.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

48.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-13.42% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. With a top-tier 85.0% Route% (96th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in football.. The projections expect Sam LaPorta to earn 5.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

o44.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
5.25 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.25 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.. T.J. Hockenson's 4.5 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a significant growth in his pass-catching talent over last year's 3.0 figure.

o4.5 +103
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
8.22% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
8.22% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Vikings, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.3 per game) this year.. The Vikings pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.9%) versus RBs this year (72.9%).

u4.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made
7.22 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-1.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.22 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-1.42% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is forecasted by the projections to land in the 99th percentile among WRs with 11.3 targets.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 7.7 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a significant progression in his receiving talent over last season's 6.2 rate.

o6.5 -143
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.54 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-12.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.54 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-12.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. With a top-tier 85.0% Route% (96th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in football.. The projections expect Sam LaPorta to earn 5.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

o4.5 +105
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u22.5 Rushing Attempts
19.98 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.5 DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u22.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

19.98 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.5 DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV

ANALYSIS

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. The Vikings defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

u22.5 -125
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts
35.67 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
21.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.67 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
21.14% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.3. . Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.

o31.5 -109
BetRivers logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts
35.22 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
7.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.22 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
7.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jared Goff is projected by the projections to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.9.

o33.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions
21.72 OVER PROJECTION
+2.2 DIFFERENCE
15.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.72 OVER PROJECTION
+2.2 DIFFERENCE
15.35% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.

o19.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions
23.35 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
9.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

23.35 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
9.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jared Goff is projected by the projections to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.9. . Jared Goff rates as one of the best precision passers in football this year with a fantastic 67.2% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 78th percentile.

o21.5 -134
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.51% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.

+295
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.62 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.62 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.82% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 34.0% this year, which places him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.. After totaling 85.0 air yards per game last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen a big uptick this season, now sitting at 99.0 per game.

+135
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.72% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.

+175
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.93 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.93 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.63% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. As it relates to air yards, Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating an astounding 8.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. Jahmyr Gibbs's 29.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the league: 98th percentile for RBs.

-235
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.83% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jared Goff is projected by the projections to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.9. . The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

+1350
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.27% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.27% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Sam LaPorta has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.3% this year, which ranks him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.. Sam LaPorta has accumulated far more air yards this year (45.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).

+230
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.14 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-13.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.14 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-13.12% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.3.

+500
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jordan Mason logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Mason (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jordan Mason logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Mason (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.6% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

+120
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INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.53% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Vikings, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.3 per game) this year.. In averaging a measly 0.04 interceptions per game this year, Jared Goff rates among the best QBs in the NFL (97th percentile).. The Vikings have intercepted 1.00 throws per game this year, grading out as the 5th-best defense in the NFL by this statistic.. The Minnesota cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

u0.5 -119
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.49 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.49 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.03% EV

ANALYSIS

In throwing a mere 0.44 interceptions per game this year, Kyler Murray rates among the best QBs in the league (76th percentile).. The Detroit Lions defensive ends grade out as the best collection of DEs in football this year with their pass rush.

u0.5 -120
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  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -3.5 spread
-5.09 PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
13.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -3.5 spread

PROJECTION

-5.09 PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
13.06% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-3.5 +100
FanDuel logo
TOTAL
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 45.5 Total
50.59 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
21.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 45.5 Total

PROJECTION

50.59 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
21.25% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o45.5 -108
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PASSING YARDS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards
243.22 OVER PROJECTION
+21.7 DIFFERENCE
24.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

243.22 OVER PROJECTION
+21.7 DIFFERENCE
24.6% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.

o218.5 -125
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o254.5 Passing Yards
275.29 OVER PROJECTION
+20.8 DIFFERENCE
23.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o254.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

275.29 OVER PROJECTION
+20.8 DIFFERENCE
23.89% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jared Goff is projected by the projections to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.9. . Jared Goff's 296.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a remarkable growth in his passing prowess over last year's 239.0 mark.

o254.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
4.75 OVER PROJECTION
+4.3 DIFFERENCE
26.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

4.75 OVER PROJECTION
+4.3 DIFFERENCE
26.42% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).

o0.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o87.5 Rushing Yards
95.88 OVER PROJECTION
+8.4 DIFFERENCE
24.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o87.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

95.88 OVER PROJECTION
+8.4 DIFFERENCE
24.12% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. In this week's contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is expected by the projections to place in the 100th percentile among running backs with 22.2 rush attempts.. Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (109.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).

o84.5 -110
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING YARDS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards
26.84 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
21.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

26.84 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
21.84% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The projections expect Kyler Murray to notch 4.7 carries in this contest, on average: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Our trusted projections expect Kyler Murray to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack in this contest (17.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.1% in games he has played).. With a fantastic rate of 24.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (82nd percentile), Kyler Murray stands among the best running quarterbacks in the league this year.. The Detroit Lions defense has had the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 4.68 adjusted yards-per-carry.

o20.5 -150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o38.5 Receiving Yards
49.29 OVER PROJECTION
+10.8 DIFFERENCE
25.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o38.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

49.29 OVER PROJECTION
+10.8 DIFFERENCE
25.38% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.. T.J. Hockenson's 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season reflects a significant growth in his pass-catching skills over last season's 27.0 rate.

o38.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o77.5 Receiving Yards
90.30 OVER PROJECTION
+12.8 DIFFERENCE
25.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o77.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

90.30 OVER PROJECTION
+12.8 DIFFERENCE
25.36% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is forecasted by the projections to land in the 99th percentile among WRs with 11.3 targets.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 94.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a material improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 78.0 rate.

o75.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o32.5 Receiving Yards
39.46 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
23.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o32.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

39.46 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
23.87% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jahmyr Gibbs is predicted by the projections to place in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 6.5 targets.. Jahmyr Gibbs's 46.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 33.0 figure.

o30.5 -140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o76.5 Receiving Yards
81.38 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
18.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o76.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

81.38 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
18.04% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.. Justin Jefferson's 63.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year represents a noteable boost in his receiving skills over last year's 52.0 mark.

o70.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o48.5 Receiving Yards
48.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-13.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o48.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

48.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-13.42% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. With a top-tier 85.0% Route% (96th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in football.. The projections expect Sam LaPorta to earn 5.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

o44.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
5.25 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.25 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.. T.J. Hockenson's 4.5 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a significant growth in his pass-catching talent over last year's 3.0 figure.

o4.5 +103
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
8.22% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
8.22% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Vikings, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.3 per game) this year.. The Vikings pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.9%) versus RBs this year (72.9%).

u4.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made
7.22 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-1.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.22 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-1.42% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is forecasted by the projections to land in the 99th percentile among WRs with 11.3 targets.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 7.7 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a significant progression in his receiving talent over last season's 6.2 rate.

o6.5 -143
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.54 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-12.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.54 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-12.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. With a top-tier 85.0% Route% (96th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in football.. The projections expect Sam LaPorta to earn 5.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

o4.5 +105
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u22.5 Rushing Attempts
19.98 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.5 DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u22.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

19.98 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.5 DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV

ANALYSIS

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. The Vikings defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

u22.5 -125
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts
35.67 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
21.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.67 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
21.14% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.3. . Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.

o31.5 -109
BetRivers logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts
35.22 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
7.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.22 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
7.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jared Goff is projected by the projections to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.9.

o33.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions
21.72 OVER PROJECTION
+2.2 DIFFERENCE
15.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.72 OVER PROJECTION
+2.2 DIFFERENCE
15.35% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.

o19.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions
23.35 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
9.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

23.35 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
9.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jared Goff is projected by the projections to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.9. . Jared Goff rates as one of the best precision passers in football this year with a fantastic 67.2% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 78th percentile.

o21.5 -134
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.51% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.

+295
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.62 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.62 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.82% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 34.0% this year, which places him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.. After totaling 85.0 air yards per game last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen a big uptick this season, now sitting at 99.0 per game.

+135
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.72% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense this year: most in football.

+175
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.93 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.93 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.63% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. As it relates to air yards, Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating an astounding 8.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. Jahmyr Gibbs's 29.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the league: 98th percentile for RBs.

-235
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.83% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's game, Jared Goff is projected by the projections to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.9. . The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

+1350
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.27% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
6.27% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Sam LaPorta has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.3% this year, which ranks him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.. Sam LaPorta has accumulated far more air yards this year (45.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).

+230
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.14 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-13.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.14 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-13.12% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.3.

+500
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jordan Mason logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Mason (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jordan Mason logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Mason (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.6% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 132.6 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

+120
BetRivers logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.53% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Vikings, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.3 per game) this year.. In averaging a measly 0.04 interceptions per game this year, Jared Goff rates among the best QBs in the NFL (97th percentile).. The Vikings have intercepted 1.00 throws per game this year, grading out as the 5th-best defense in the NFL by this statistic.. The Minnesota cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

u0.5 -119
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.49 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.49 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
10.03% EV

ANALYSIS

In throwing a mere 0.44 interceptions per game this year, Kyler Murray rates among the best QBs in the league (76th percentile).. The Detroit Lions defensive ends grade out as the best collection of DEs in football this year with their pass rush.

u0.5 -120
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Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'finsterbaby' picks Minnesota vs Detroit to go Over (46.5)

finsterbaby is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Spread

'DKSTACKER' is picking Detroit to cover (-4.5)

DKSTACKER is #10 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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MIN
DET
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'DKSTACKER' picks Minnesota vs Detroit to go Over (47.5)

DKSTACKER is #10 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Total

'Ep96' picks Minnesota vs Detroit to go Under (45.5)

Ep96 is #10 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Spread

'Ep96' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.5)

Ep96 is #10 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DET
Spread

'talco50' is picking Minnesota to cover (+4.5)

talco50 is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.

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MIN
DET
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'talco50' picks Minnesota vs Detroit to go Under (47.5)

talco50 is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Spread

'thirdperson' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.5)

thirdperson is #3 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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MIN
DET
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'thirdperson' picks Minnesota vs Detroit to go Over (45.5)

thirdperson is #3 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'bamabilly' picks Minnesota vs Detroit to go Under (46.5)

bamabilly is #4 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4500 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Spread

'bamabilly' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.0)

bamabilly is #4 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4500 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DET
Spread

'rgut' is picking Minnesota to cover (+4.5)

rgut is #7 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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MIN
DET
Total

'rgut' picks Minnesota vs Detroit to go Under (45.5)

rgut is #7 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Spread

'DIEASU' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.5)

DIEASU is #8 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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MIN
DET
Total

'DIEASU' picks Minnesota vs Detroit to go Over (45.5)

DIEASU is #8 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'bowron' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.5)

bowron is #9 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DET
Total

'bowron' picks Minnesota vs Detroit to go Over (45.5)

bowron is #9 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under

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