Detroit Lions

Picks

Green Bay’s run game is tough to trust with Josh Jacobs banged up, but Watson dominated the passing usage last week and is my favorite TD play in this game. He led the team in snaps, routes, targets, yards, air yards, and receptions. He didn’t score, but the Packers kept things ultra conservative because of JJ McCarthy’s poor play on the other side and were nursing an easy lead. Jordan Love should run a more aggressive offense indoors as a 2.5-point dog against a high-scoring Detroit team. The Lions’ secondary also has injury concerns with Kerby Joseph, Terrion Arnold, and Brian Branch all questionable. Watson should be the shortest TD price among Packers receivers — not Romeo Doubs, who has just 81 yards over his last three games and sits around +170.

The Packers are getting increased pressure on rival passers and doing so with just a four-man rush. Green Bay sits Top 10 in QB hits and total sacks and takes on a Lions’ offensive line with injuries up and down the pass protection. Detroit currently has four of five o-line starters listed as questionable and limited in practice during this short week. Most of those guys played through ailments in Week 12’s OT win over New York but starting center Graham Glasgow still isn’t practicing yet. Quarterback Jared Goff felt the effects of those o-line injuries. He was blasted by the Giants pass rush, suffering three sacks and seven QB hits last Sunday. Goff’s pass production gets a “turkey tryptophan” hit when facing pressure like the Packers’ four-man rush. He sits 58th among all QBs at PFF when under pressure, completing just 45.5% of his throws. 

The short week and quick turnaround for a Thanksgiving divisional tilt benefits the Detroit Lions at Ford Field more than the visiting Green Bay Packers. Detroit has averaged 34.7 points per home game while going 11-3 at Ford Field since the beginning of last season, and there’s a notable disparity in the strength of schedules the Lions and Packers have faced through 12 weeks.

The target tree is a lot narrower in Detroit with tight end Sam LaPorta (back) sidelined and wide receivers Kalif Raymond (ankle) and Isaac TeSlaa (hand) both nursing injuries on a short week. It should present more opportunities for Williams in the passing game, and he’s a big-play threat averaging an elite 18.1 yards per reception and 8.0 yards after the catch per reception. Add a rock-solid 13.6 aDoT to him hauling in 33.3% of his team’s air yards, and I like Williams leaving his mark on Thursday’s game. 

The Lions have leaned on running back Jahmyr Gibbs the past two weeks for 27 carries and 20 targets across 91 offensive snaps, while Montgomery has checked in with just 11 carries and four targets over 45 offensive snaps. I’m anticipating Detroit narrowing the gap on a short week against a tough Green Bay defense in an important divisional game. Gibbs exploding for 410 yards from scrimmage the past two weeks has left few opportunities for Montgomery, but it’s also left Montgomery fresh for Thursday’s NFC North showdown, and the one-two punch out of the backfield has been a strength for the Detroit offense since Gibbs and Montgomery debuted in The Motor City in 2023.

While the Packers haven’t needed Love to attack through the air in recent weeks, Green Bay is an underdog for just the second time all season, and his completions total hasn’t been this low since Week 7. Additionally, Love sailed Over this number in three straight games when the Pack had competitive tilts in Weeks 8 through 10. He posted a rock-solid 72.8 completion percentage and solid 5.6 CPOE during the stretch, too.