Detroit Lions
Picks

3rd in NFC North (6 - 4 - 0)

Next Game

NYGN.Y. Giants

DETDetroit

Sun, Nov 23 13:00 ET

NYG @ DET Picks

NFL Picks

Score a Touchdown

Devin Singletary Score a Touchdown (Yes: +250)

Best Odds

+250

Pick made: 16 hours ago

+185

+250

+200

+205

The Giants’ backfield usage doesn’t match the touchdown odds. Devin Singletary has 13 red-zone carries to Tyrone Tracy’s three since Cam Skattebo went down, yet Tracy is priced shorter to score. That doesn’t make much sense. Last week, the backfield was a true 50/50 split, and the two combined for 35 carries. Singletary handled nine of the team’s 10 red-zone rushing attempts and scored twice. The offense isn’t pretty, but he owns the red-zone role and can handle 15-plus touches. Anything above +200 is a buy for me, even in a likely negative game script.

Spread

DET -10.5 (-110)

Best Odds

-10.5 -102

Pick made: yesterday

-10.5 -110

-10.0 -110

-10.5 -102

-10.5 -110

-10.5 -106

The Lions are coming off a loss to the Eagles, but they have a tendency to underperform on the road outdoors against good teams. On the other hand, they tend to blow out bad teams at home, and the 2-9 Giants are definitely bad. Detroit's two-headed rushing attack of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will shred a New York front that is dead-last in the league in defensive rush EPA. Even if QB Jaxson Dart returns to the Giants lineup after suffering a concussion, they don't have the weapons to move the ball against a Lions stop unit that ranks fourth in the NFL in defensive success rate.

Score a Touchdown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Score a Touchdown (Yes: -124)

Projection 0.77 (Yes)

Best Odds

-124

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

-130

-124

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 65.2 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. After accruing 68.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has shown good development this year, now averaging 80.0 per game.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 74.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 62.4.. Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks in the 99th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a fantastic 0.73 per game.

-124 at Caesars

Passing Attempts

Jaxson Dart o30.5 Passing Attempts (-125)

Projection 33.38 (Over)

Best Odds

o30.5 -122

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o30.5 -125

o30.5 -122

This week's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are giant -10.5-point underdogs.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.3 plays on offense called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Giants this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

-122 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Jared Goff o251.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Projection 280.91 (Over)

Best Odds

o251.5 -114

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o253.5 -111

o251.5 -114

o254.5 -115

o252.5 -115

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 65.2 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. Jared Goff grades out as one of the most on-target QBs in football this year with an excellent 70.3% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.. Jared Goff comes in as one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 8.14 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 88th percentile.. This year, the weak New York Giants defense has been torched for a monstrous 246.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 9th-worst in the NFL.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Brock Wright o19.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Projection 28.5 (Over)

Best Odds

o19.5 -111

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o19.5 -111

o21.5 -114

o20.5 -115

o20.5 -118

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 65.2 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The predictive model expects Brock Wright to be much more involved in his team's passing offense in this contest (11.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.9% in games he has played).. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New York's group of safeties has been very bad this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the league.

-111 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs o29.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Projection 38.57 (Over)

Best Odds

o27.5 -113

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o29.5 -111

o27.5 -114

o27.5 -115

o27.5 -113

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 65.2 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. This week, Jahmyr Gibbs is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 96th percentile among running backs with 5.6 targets.. Jahmyr Gibbs's 22.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 95th percentile for RBs.. Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging a stellar 31.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

-113 at Caesars

Receiving Yards

Amon-Ra St. Brown o80.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 93.02 (Over)

Best Odds

o76.5 -114

Pick made: 42 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o80.5 -110

o76.5 -114

o80.5 -115

o78.5 -117

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 65.2 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 10.6 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. After accruing 68.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has shown good development this year, now averaging 80.0 per game.. This year, the poor Giants defense has surrendered a whopping 163.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 7th-most in football.

-114 at FanDuel

Rushing Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs u77.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 67.23 (Under)

Best Odds

u77.5 -110

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u73.5 -113

u73.5 -114

u77.5 -110

u75.5 -114

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

-110 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Tyrone Tracy Jr. o42.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Projection 49.39 (Over)

Best Odds

o42.5 -118

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o45.5 -109

o46.5 -114

o42.5 -118

o45.5 -113

Our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to be the 4th-most run-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 42.7% run rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.3 plays on offense called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Giants this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).

-118 at BetMGM

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Spread

70% picking Detroit

30% 30%

70% 70%

Total Picks NYG 161, DET 373

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NYG

DET

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Consensus Picks

70% picking Detroit

Top User Picks

'Manning2008SB' is picking Detroit to cover (-10.5)

'Manning2008SB' picks N.Y. Giants vs Detroit to go Under (49.5)

'jenjay23' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (+10.5)

'jenjay23' picks N.Y. Giants vs Detroit to go Under (49.5)

'RAZORAZE283' picks N.Y. Giants vs Detroit to go Over (50.0)

'cashbb1030' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (+10.5)

'cashbb1030' picks N.Y. Giants vs Detroit to go Under (50.0)

'Batch9' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (+11.5)

'Batch9' picks N.Y. Giants vs Detroit to go Under (49.5)

'CappersClub' picks N.Y. Giants vs Detroit to go Over (50.0)

'CappersClub' is picking Detroit to cover (-10.0)

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