Detroit Lions

2nd in NFC North (1 - 1 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Sep 27 13:00 ET

NYJ @ DET Picks

NFL Picks
Anytime Touchdown
Garrett Wilson logo Garrett Wilson Score a Touchdown (Yes: +170)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

There are a lot of Jets angles I want here. The Lions have been awful at defending the TE position early in the season, as even the Saints had TDs from Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant in Week 1. The problem is that the Jets have a four-TE rotation, with Kenyon Sadiq at 5.1x being a possibility, but I'm looking elsewhere. Adonai Mitchell (4.1x) had 12 targets last week and leads the Jets in target and air-yard share, but I don't want to get cute when Garrett Wilson is 2.5x or better. It's an indoor game with a high total, and Wilson also ranks high on the Covers Anytime TD Value Index. The Jets could put up points against this toothless defense, and a move from 2.8x last week to 2.7x this week isn't enough for the setting and matchup.

Total
New York Jets image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail u48.5 (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Ed Scimia logo
Ed Scimia
Betting Analyst

The New York Jets have allowed just 4.0 yards per play, third-best in the NFL, and rank sixth in EPA per defensive play for the season. And while the Detroit Lions have given up an embarrassing 457.5 yards per game on defense, Geno Smith and the New York offense haven't shown any signs that they can even approach that kind of number. I'm backing the Under at totals as low as 47.5 points.

Spread
Detroit Lions image thumbnail DET -6.5 (-116)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Ed Scimia logo
Ed Scimia
Betting Analyst

The New York Jets defense still looks legit, but the offense sputtered against its first real taste of adversity, totaling just 285 yards against the Green Bay Packers. That won't be enough to deal with a Detroit Lions team that has averaged 362 yards and 31.0 ppg on offense this season. I'm backing the Lions to cover at -6.5 points.

Passing Yards
Geno Smith logo
Geno Smith o221.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Projection 241.83 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. Geno Smith's 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant gain in his throwing precision over last season's 66.8% mark.
Passing Yards
Jared Goff logo
Jared Goff o260.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 275.57 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In throwing a monstrous 32.9 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Jared Goff rates among the top QBs in the league (95th percentile) for this stat.. Jared Goff ranks as one of the top QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 244.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.. The New York Jets pass defense has displayed weak efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 7.93 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in football.
Rushing Yards
Jared Goff logo
Jared Goff o0.5 Rushing Yards (+145)
Projection 4.74 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. After taking on 2.8% of his offense's run game usage last season, Jared Goff has played a bigger part in the running game this season, currently accounting for 9.4%.. Since the start of last season, the feeble Jets run defense has given up a whopping 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the worst in football.
Rushing Yards
Geno Smith logo
Geno Smith o10.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Projection 17.61 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Geno Smith grades out as one of the top QBs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a remarkable 1.94 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 77th percentile.. The Detroit Lions linebackers rank as the worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Rushing Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Jahmyr Gibbs o87.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 92.55 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. In this week's game, Jahmyr Gibbs is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 21.5 carries.. With an excellent tally of 70.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs rates as one of the leading RBs in the league since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the feeble Jets run defense has given up a whopping 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the worst in football.
Receiving Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Amon-Ra St. Brown o75.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 92.92 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 11.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 82.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.. The New York Jets pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, yielding 8.45 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
KS
Kenyon Sadiq o23.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 31.48 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league.
Receiving Yards
Sam LaPorta logo
Sam LaPorta o41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 48.42 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. With an extraordinary 82.9% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Sam LaPorta ranks among the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.. The predictive model expects Sam LaPorta to accrue 6.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.. When talking about air yards, Sam LaPorta ranks in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a striking 29.0 per game.
Passing Attempts
Geno Smith logo
Geno Smith o30.5 Passing Attempts (-119)
Projection 33.96 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. In this week's game, Geno Smith is projected by the projection model to total the 9th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.8. . Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.
Anytime Touchdown
Jared Goff logo
Jared Goff Score a Touchdown (Yes: +1750)
Projection 0.09 (Yes)
Best Odds
Pick made: 20 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Totaling zero red zone rush attempts this year, Jared Goff's one-dimensionality makes him a no threat on the ground near the goal line.. Jared Goff has been one of the leading TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 1.90 per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.. With a lousy rate of only 0.00 touchdowns on the ground per game (2nd percentile), Jared Goff rates among the bottom running quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

66% picking Detroit

34%
66%

Total Picks NYJ 222, DET 432

Spread
NYJ
DET
Total

44% picking N.Y. Jets vs Detroit to go Under

56%
44%

Total PicksNYJ 228, DET 178

Total
Over
Under

NYJ @ DET · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -6.5 spread
-9.88 PROJECTION
-3.4 DIFFERENCE
18.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -6.5 spread

PROJECTION

-9.88 PROJECTION
-3.4 DIFFERENCE
18.3% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-6.5 -115
bet365 logo
TOTAL
New York Jets image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 47.5 Total
49.45 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
11.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
New York Jets image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 47.5 Total

PROJECTION

49.45 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
11.39% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o47.5 -108
DraftKings logo
PASSING YARDS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards
241.83 OVER PROJECTION
+20.3 DIFFERENCE
25.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

241.83 OVER PROJECTION
+20.3 DIFFERENCE
25.32% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. Geno Smith's 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant gain in his throwing precision over last season's 66.8% mark.

o215.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o260.5 Passing Yards
275.57 OVER PROJECTION
+15.1 DIFFERENCE
24.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o260.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

275.57 OVER PROJECTION
+15.1 DIFFERENCE
24.24% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In throwing a monstrous 32.9 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Jared Goff rates among the top QBs in the league (95th percentile) for this stat.. Jared Goff ranks as one of the top QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 244.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.. The New York Jets pass defense has displayed weak efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 7.93 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in football.

o257.5 -113
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
4.74 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

4.74 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. After taking on 2.8% of his offense's run game usage last season, Jared Goff has played a bigger part in the running game this season, currently accounting for 9.4%.. Since the start of last season, the feeble Jets run defense has given up a whopping 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the worst in football.

o0.5 +145
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
17.61 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
25.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

17.61 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
25.52% EV

ANALYSIS

Geno Smith grades out as one of the top QBs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a remarkable 1.94 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 77th percentile.. The Detroit Lions linebackers rank as the worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

o10.5 -120
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o87.5 Rushing Yards
92.55 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
22.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o87.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

92.55 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
22.82% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. In this week's game, Jahmyr Gibbs is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 21.5 carries.. With an excellent tally of 70.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs rates as one of the leading RBs in the league since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the feeble Jets run defense has given up a whopping 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the worst in football.

o83.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards
58.64 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

58.64 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.12% EV

ANALYSIS

In this contest, Breece Hall is anticipated by the model to finish in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 14.8 rush attempts.. Out of all running backs, Breece Hall ranks in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 61.7% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.. Breece Hall has grinded out 55.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (88th percentile).. The Detroit Lions linebackers rank as the worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

o55.5 -113
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards
92.92 OVER PROJECTION
+17.4 DIFFERENCE
26.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

92.92 OVER PROJECTION
+17.4 DIFFERENCE
26.17% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 11.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 82.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.. The New York Jets pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, yielding 8.45 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in the NFL.

o75.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards
31.48 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
25.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

31.48 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
25.04% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league.

o23.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o41.5 Receiving Yards
48.42 OVER PROJECTION
+6.9 DIFFERENCE
21.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o41.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

48.42 OVER PROJECTION
+6.9 DIFFERENCE
21.98% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. With an extraordinary 82.9% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Sam LaPorta ranks among the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.. The predictive model expects Sam LaPorta to accrue 6.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.. When talking about air yards, Sam LaPorta ranks in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a striking 29.0 per game.

o41.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o34.5 Receiving Yards
36.10 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
9.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o34.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

36.10 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
9.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The model projects Jahmyr Gibbs to garner 5.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. With a terrific 35.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Jahmyr Gibbs has been among the leading RB receiving threats in the NFL.. The New York Jets pass defense has shown poor efficiency vs. running backs since the start of last season, allowing 7.01 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the NFL.

o33.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o22.5 Receiving Yards
22.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o22.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

22.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.87% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. With an exceptional 19.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Breece Hall has been as one of the top pass-game running backs in the league.

o20.5 -130
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
3.20 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
12.05% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.20 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
12.05% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league.

o2.5 -110
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made
5.66 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
1.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.66 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
1.84% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. Garrett Wilson is positioned as one of the leading wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 4.6 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 94th percentile.

o5.5 +110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.87 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.23% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.87 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.23% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. With an extraordinary 82.9% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Sam LaPorta ranks among the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.. The predictive model expects Sam LaPorta to accrue 6.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.. With an exceptional 4.2 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Sam LaPorta stands among the leading pass-catching tight ends in football.

o4.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made
7.19 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-1.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.19 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-1.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 11.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 33.3% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.. Amon-Ra St. Brown profiles as one of the best WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 6.5 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.

o6.5 -140
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o17.5 Rushing Attempts
19.19 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
13.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o17.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

19.19 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
13.66% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. In this week's game, Jahmyr Gibbs is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 21.5 carries.. While Jahmyr Gibbs has accounted for 62.2% of his team's carries in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Detroit's running game in this week's contest at 80.7%.

o17.5 -109
DraftKings logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts
33.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
20.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
20.84% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. In this week's game, Geno Smith is projected by the projection model to total the 9th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.8. . Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.

o30.5 -115
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o32.5 Passing Attempts
33.23 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
0.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o32.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.23 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
0.32% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In throwing a monstrous 32.9 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Jared Goff rates among the top QBs in the league (95th percentile) for this stat.

o32.5 -115
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u23.5 Passing Completions
22.86 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u23.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

22.86 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.25% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Lions grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's group of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

u23.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
22.01 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
10.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

22.01 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
10.66% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. Geno Smith's 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant gain in his throwing precision over last season's 66.8% mark.

o20.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Totaling zero red zone rush attempts this year, Jared Goff's one-dimensionality makes him a no threat on the ground near the goal line.. Jared Goff has been one of the leading TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 1.90 per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.. With a lousy rate of only 0.00 touchdowns on the ground per game (2nd percentile), Jared Goff rates among the bottom running quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.

+1750
Hard Rock Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown
1.05 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

1.05 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.95% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Jahmyr Gibbs has accrued a staggering 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among RBs. (That might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the 97th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a whopping 27.8 figure since the start of last season.. Jahmyr Gibbs's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 83.3% to 91.0%.

-275
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.76 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.76 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.1% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 42.9% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled a whopping 88.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 77.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 99th percentile for wideouts.

-120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.8% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. In this week's game, Geno Smith is projected by the projection model to total the 8th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.0.

+800
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.73% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. While Garrett Wilson has accounted for 17.9% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be much more involved in New York's offense near the end zone in this contest at 23.0%.

+190
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.49% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. The Detroit Lions defense has given up the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.63 per game since the start of last season.

+450
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.17% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. Breece Hall has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 14.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.

+100
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-8.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.32 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-8.91% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Sam LaPorta has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 28.6% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.. When talking about air yards, Sam LaPorta ranks in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a striking 29.0 per game.. Sam LaPorta's 36.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 87th percentile for TEs.

+195
BetMGM logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.37 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.37 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.11% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Lions grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's group of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

u0.5 -145
bet365 logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-9.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-9.55% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. Geno Smith has totaled 0.89 interceptions per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 10th percentile when it comes to QBs.

o0.5 -115
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  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -6.5 spread
-9.88 PROJECTION
-3.4 DIFFERENCE
18.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -6.5 spread

PROJECTION

-9.88 PROJECTION
-3.4 DIFFERENCE
18.3% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-6.5 -115
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TOTAL
New York Jets image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 47.5 Total
49.45 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
11.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
New York Jets image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 47.5 Total

PROJECTION

49.45 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
11.39% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o47.5 -108
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PASSING YARDS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards
241.83 OVER PROJECTION
+20.3 DIFFERENCE
25.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o221.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

241.83 OVER PROJECTION
+20.3 DIFFERENCE
25.32% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. Geno Smith's 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant gain in his throwing precision over last season's 66.8% mark.

o215.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o260.5 Passing Yards
275.57 OVER PROJECTION
+15.1 DIFFERENCE
24.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o260.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

275.57 OVER PROJECTION
+15.1 DIFFERENCE
24.24% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In throwing a monstrous 32.9 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Jared Goff rates among the top QBs in the league (95th percentile) for this stat.. Jared Goff ranks as one of the top QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 244.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.. The New York Jets pass defense has displayed weak efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 7.93 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in football.

o257.5 -113
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
4.74 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

4.74 OVER PROJECTION
+4.2 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. After taking on 2.8% of his offense's run game usage last season, Jared Goff has played a bigger part in the running game this season, currently accounting for 9.4%.. Since the start of last season, the feeble Jets run defense has given up a whopping 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the worst in football.

o0.5 +145
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
17.61 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
25.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

17.61 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
25.52% EV

ANALYSIS

Geno Smith grades out as one of the top QBs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a remarkable 1.94 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 77th percentile.. The Detroit Lions linebackers rank as the worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

o10.5 -120
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RUSHING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o87.5 Rushing Yards
92.55 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
22.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o87.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

92.55 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
22.82% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. In this week's game, Jahmyr Gibbs is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 21.5 carries.. With an excellent tally of 70.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs rates as one of the leading RBs in the league since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the feeble Jets run defense has given up a whopping 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the worst in football.

o83.5 -115
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RUSHING YARDS
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards
58.64 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

58.64 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.12% EV

ANALYSIS

In this contest, Breece Hall is anticipated by the model to finish in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 14.8 rush attempts.. Out of all running backs, Breece Hall ranks in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 61.7% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.. Breece Hall has grinded out 55.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (88th percentile).. The Detroit Lions linebackers rank as the worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

o55.5 -113
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RECEIVING YARDS
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards
92.92 OVER PROJECTION
+17.4 DIFFERENCE
26.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

92.92 OVER PROJECTION
+17.4 DIFFERENCE
26.17% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 11.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 82.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.. The New York Jets pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, yielding 8.45 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in the NFL.

o75.5 -114
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RECEIVING YARDS
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards
31.48 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
25.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

31.48 OVER PROJECTION
+8.0 DIFFERENCE
25.04% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league.

o23.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o41.5 Receiving Yards
48.42 OVER PROJECTION
+6.9 DIFFERENCE
21.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o41.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

48.42 OVER PROJECTION
+6.9 DIFFERENCE
21.98% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. With an extraordinary 82.9% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Sam LaPorta ranks among the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.. The predictive model expects Sam LaPorta to accrue 6.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.. When talking about air yards, Sam LaPorta ranks in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a striking 29.0 per game.

o41.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o34.5 Receiving Yards
36.10 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
9.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o34.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

36.10 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
9.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The model projects Jahmyr Gibbs to garner 5.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. With a terrific 35.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Jahmyr Gibbs has been among the leading RB receiving threats in the NFL.. The New York Jets pass defense has shown poor efficiency vs. running backs since the start of last season, allowing 7.01 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the NFL.

o33.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o22.5 Receiving Yards
22.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o22.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

22.59 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-6.87% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. With an exceptional 19.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Breece Hall has been as one of the top pass-game running backs in the league.

o20.5 -130
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RECEPTIONS MADE
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
3.20 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
12.05% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.20 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
12.05% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league.

o2.5 -110
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made
5.66 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
1.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.66 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
1.84% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. Garrett Wilson is positioned as one of the leading wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 4.6 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 94th percentile.

o5.5 +110
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.87 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.23% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.87 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
-0.23% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. With an extraordinary 82.9% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Sam LaPorta ranks among the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.. The predictive model expects Sam LaPorta to accrue 6.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.. With an exceptional 4.2 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Sam LaPorta stands among the leading pass-catching tight ends in football.

o4.5 -114
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made
7.19 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-1.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.19 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
-1.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 11.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 33.3% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.. Amon-Ra St. Brown profiles as one of the best WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 6.5 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.

o6.5 -140
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RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o17.5 Rushing Attempts
19.19 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
13.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o17.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

19.19 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
13.66% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. In this week's game, Jahmyr Gibbs is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 21.5 carries.. While Jahmyr Gibbs has accounted for 62.2% of his team's carries in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Detroit's running game in this week's contest at 80.7%.

o17.5 -109
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts
33.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
20.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
20.84% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. In this week's game, Geno Smith is projected by the projection model to total the 9th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.8. . Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.

o30.5 -115
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o32.5 Passing Attempts
33.23 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
0.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o32.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.23 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
0.32% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In throwing a monstrous 32.9 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Jared Goff rates among the top QBs in the league (95th percentile) for this stat.

o32.5 -115
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u23.5 Passing Completions
22.86 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u23.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

22.86 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.25% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Lions grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's group of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

u23.5 -115
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
22.01 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
10.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

22.01 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
10.66% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. Geno Smith's 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant gain in his throwing precision over last season's 66.8% mark.

o20.5 -125
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
24.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Totaling zero red zone rush attempts this year, Jared Goff's one-dimensionality makes him a no threat on the ground near the goal line.. Jared Goff has been one of the leading TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 1.90 per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.. With a lousy rate of only 0.00 touchdowns on the ground per game (2nd percentile), Jared Goff rates among the bottom running quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.

+1750
Hard Rock Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown
1.05 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

1.05 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.95% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Jahmyr Gibbs has accrued a staggering 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among RBs. (That might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the 97th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a whopping 27.8 figure since the start of last season.. Jahmyr Gibbs's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 83.3% to 91.0%.

-275
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.76 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.76 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.1% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 42.9% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled a whopping 88.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 77.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 99th percentile for wideouts.

-120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.8% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. In this week's game, Geno Smith is projected by the projection model to total the 8th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.0.

+800
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.73% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. While Garrett Wilson has accounted for 17.9% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be much more involved in New York's offense near the end zone in this contest at 23.0%.

+190
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
NYJ
New York Jets image thumbnail
K. Sadiq (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
5.49% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. The Detroit Lions defense has given up the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.63 per game since the start of last season.

+450
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.17% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. Breece Hall has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 14.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.

+100
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-8.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.32 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-8.91% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Sam LaPorta has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 28.6% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.. When talking about air yards, Sam LaPorta ranks in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a striking 29.0 per game.. Sam LaPorta's 36.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 87th percentile for TEs.

+195
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INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.37 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.37 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.11% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.. When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Lions grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's group of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

u0.5 -145
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INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-9.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-9.55% EV

ANALYSIS

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.. Geno Smith has totaled 0.89 interceptions per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 10th percentile when it comes to QBs.

o0.5 -115
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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

Total

'peacy454' picks N.Y. Jets vs Detroit to go Under (48.5)

peacy454 is #1 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total

'Sandsaver727' picks N.Y. Jets vs Detroit to go Under (48.5)

Sandsaver727 is #1 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'Sandsaver727' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+6.5)

Sandsaver727 is #1 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
NYJ
DET
Spread

'peacy454' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+6.5)

peacy454 is #1 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
NYJ
DET
Spread

'Ringo2019' is picking Detroit to cover (-6.5)

Ringo2019 is #10 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
NYJ
DET
Spread

'Jackson2399' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+6.5)

Jackson2399 is #10 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
NYJ
DET
Total

'Jackson2399' picks N.Y. Jets vs Detroit to go Under (48.5)

Jackson2399 is #10 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total

'Ringo2019' picks N.Y. Jets vs Detroit to go Over (48.5)

Ringo2019 is #10 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'enasty1' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+9.5)

enasty1 is #3 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
NYJ
DET
Spread

'kengoone' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+9.5)

kengoone is #3 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
NYJ
DET
Spread

'Wolfie7' is picking Detroit to cover (-6.5)

Wolfie7 is #5 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
NYJ
DET
Total

'Wolfie7' picks N.Y. Jets vs Detroit to go Over (48.5)

Wolfie7 is #5 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'Piazzametsfan31' is picking Detroit to cover (-9.5)

Piazzametsfan31 is #7 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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NYJ
DET
Total

'Piazzametsfan31' picks N.Y. Jets vs Detroit to go Under (45.5)

Piazzametsfan31 is #7 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'Patrick9' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+9.5)

Patrick9 is #8 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
NYJ
DET
Total

'Patrick9' picks N.Y. Jets vs Detroit to go Over (45.5)

Patrick9 is #8 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'fiengo' is picking Detroit to cover (-6.5)

fiengo is #8 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Spread
NYJ
DET
Total

'fiengo' picks N.Y. Jets vs Detroit to go Under (48.5)

fiengo is #8 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under

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