Detroit Lions
Picks

1st in NFC North (6 - 3 - 0)

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DETDetroit

PHIPhiladelphia

Sun, Nov 16 20:20 ET

DET @ PHI Picks

NFL Picks

Total

u48.5 (-110)

Best Odds

u46.5 -105

Pick made: yesterday

u46.5 -105

u46.5 -110

u46.5 -106

u46.5 -110

u46.5 -106

Philadelphia’s vaunted pass rush looks like its back after laying dormant for most of the season, scoring 10 total sacks and increased QB pressures during its current three-game winning streak. Detroit’s offensive line will be tested on SNF after allowing Jared Goff to feel the sixth highest pressure rate against among qualified QBs. Goff runs a quick-hitting pass attack to begin with that keeps completions short. Now with Campbell taking over play calling, you can expect more handoffs from the Lions. Campbell snatched the playbook last week and Detroit ran on 48.5% of its snaps. That will keep the clock ticking with shorter gains, which is a solid recipe for Unders.

Score a Touchdown

Saquon Barkley Score a Touchdown (Yes: +100)

Projection 0.69 (Yes)

Best Odds

+100

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

-110

+100

-105

-108

With a sizeable 20.0% Red Zone Target Share (98th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley stands as one of the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.. Saquon Barkley places in the 92nd percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a massive 19.7 figure this year.. Saquon Barkley's 90.6% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a meaningful growth in his pass-catching talent over last season's 85.2% mark.. With a remarkable rate of 0.22 per game through the air (93rd percentile), Saquon Barkley has been among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among running backs this year.. The Detroit Lions linebackers rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

+100 at bet365

Score a Touchdown

Jalen Hurts Score a Touchdown (Yes: +120)

Projection 0.62 (Yes)

Best Odds

+120

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

+115

+120

+113

With an exceptional 68.9% Adjusted Completion% (76th percentile) this year, Jalen Hurts stands among the most accurate QBs in the league.. Jalen Hurts has been one of the top TD passers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 1.78 per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.. This year, the poor Lions defense has been torched for a staggering 2.00 TDs through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.. The Detroit Lions linebackers rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

+120 at bet365

Passing Attempts

Jalen Hurts o26.5 Passing Attempts (-112)

Projection 28.98 (Over)

Best Odds

o26.5 -112

Pick made: 7 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o26.5 -112

o26.5 -113

o26.5 -135

o26.5 -118

Passing Yards

Jalen Hurts u213.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 207.11 (Under)

Best Odds

u213.5 -115

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u204.5 -111

u203.5 -114

u213.5 -115

u204.5 -115

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.9 plays per game.. The model projects Jalen Hurts to throw 31.1 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 5th-fewest out of all QBs.. This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has conceded a feeble 68.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-best rate in football.

-115 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Sam LaPorta o37.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 44.94 (Over)

Best Odds

o37.5 -114

Pick made: 13 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o38.5 -111

o39.5 -114

o42.5 -115

o37.5 -114

Sam LaPorta has run a route on 81.7% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.. The projections expect Sam LaPorta to garner 5.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends.. With a remarkable 46.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (91st percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta stands among the best TEs in the pass game in football.. Sam LaPorta's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 77.8% to 89.3%.. Sam LaPorta's 10.3 adjusted yards per target this season signifies a meaningful progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 9.2 mark.

-114 at Caesars

Receiving Yards

Saquon Barkley o16.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 21.4 (Over)

Best Odds

o16.5 -111

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o16.5 -111

o16.5 -114

o17.5 -120

o16.5 -115

The predictive model expects Saquon Barkley to accumulate 3.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs.. With an exceptional 13.5% Target Share (94th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley has been as one of the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in football.. Saquon Barkley grades out as one of the leading pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a terrific 20.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.. Saquon Barkley's 90.6% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a meaningful growth in his pass-catching talent over last season's 85.2% mark.

-111 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

DeVonta Smith o55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 61.55 (Over)

Best Odds

o55.5 -114

Pick made: 7 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o55.5 -114

o57.5 -114

o56.5 -115

o55.5 -114

With an exceptional 98.1% Route Participation% (100th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith ranks among the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.. The projections expect DeVonta Smith to notch 7.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.. DeVonta Smith has posted far more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (66.0 per game).. DeVonta Smith profiles as one of the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an outstanding 67.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.. With an impressive 9.6 adjusted yards per target (81st percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith ranks among the top wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

-114 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

Jalen Hurts o28.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

Projection 41.51 (Over)

Best Odds

o27.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o28.5 -108

o27.5 -114

o33.5 -110

o28.5 -110

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect Jalen Hurts to total 9.0 carries in this week's game, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.. While Jalen Hurts has received 23.1% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Philadelphia's ground game in this week's contest at 29.9%.

-114 at FanDuel

Rushing Attempts

Jalen Hurts o6.5 Rushing Attempts (-135)

Projection 8.66 (Over)

Best Odds

o6.5 -135

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o6.5 -135

o6.5 -148

o7.5 -115

o6.5 -159

-135 at DraftKings

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Total

67% picking Detroit vs Philadelphia to go Over

67% 67%

33% 33%

Total PicksDET 243, PHI 119

Total

Over

Under

Total

46.5 -110

46.5 +106

Top User Picks

More Picks

Spread

'OXPrez24' is picking Detroit to cover (+2.5)

OXPrez24 is #2 on picking games that Philadelphia is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Spread

DET

PHI

Spread

+2.5 +100

-1.5 -139

Total

'OXPrez24' picks Detroit vs Philadelphia to go Over (46.5)

OXPrez24 is #2 on picking games that Philadelphia is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

46.5 -110

46.5 +106

Spread

'jstoltey' is picking Philadelphia to cover (-1.5)

jstoltey is #3 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4950 units on the season.

Spread

DET

PHI

Spread

+2.5 +100

-1.5 -139

Total

'jstoltey' picks Detroit vs Philadelphia to go Under (46.5)

jstoltey is #3 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4950 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

46.5 -110

46.5 +106

Total

'Peppershooter' picks Detroit vs Philadelphia to go Under (46.5)

Peppershooter is #5 on picking games that Philadelphia is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

46.5 -110

46.5 +106

Spread

'Peppershooter' is picking Philadelphia to cover (-2.5)

Peppershooter is #5 on picking games that Philadelphia is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.

Spread

DET

PHI

Spread

+2.5 +100

-1.5 -139

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Detroit Lions Picks

Next Game

DET @ PHI Picks

Consensus Picks

67% picking Detroit vs Philadelphia to go Over

Top User Picks

'OXPrez24' is picking Detroit to cover (+2.5)

'OXPrez24' picks Detroit vs Philadelphia to go Over (46.5)

'jstoltey' is picking Philadelphia to cover (-1.5)

'jstoltey' picks Detroit vs Philadelphia to go Under (46.5)

'Peppershooter' picks Detroit vs Philadelphia to go Under (46.5)

'Peppershooter' is picking Philadelphia to cover (-2.5)

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Detroit Lions
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