Detroit Lions

Picks

David Montgomery has rushed for 32+ yards in three of his last four games and he'll have the upper hand against a weak Lions rush defense. Detroit has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards in the NFL and they're also dead last in rush first downs against.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been dealing with a knee injury, which limited his practice this week, as well as his performance in Week 16. The Vikings own one of the best passing defenses in the NFL, ranking first in pass attempts allowed, second in completions, and second in total yards. 

Vikings third-string QB Max Brosmer gets the ball on Christmas Day, but the 24-year-old rookie has been surprisingly efficient when given the chance. Brosmer has a 66% completion rate and should hit Over 17.5 completions with ease vs. a Lions defense that's allowing 34 attempts per game.

Detroit's pass defense has been awful and the run defense looked just as bad last week. That said, this banged-up Vikings offense won't be able to take advantage. J.J. McCarthy is out which means undrafted rookie Max Brosmer will start at QB. Brosmer previously started in Week 12 and threw for just 126 yards and four picks with 4.2 ypa. Minnesota's top two RBs Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason are dealing with ankle injuries. In addition, stud LT Christian Darrisaw is on the IR and Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly is likely out after suffering his third concussion of the year. With Brosmer at the helm, the Vikes won't be able to keep up with an explosive Lions attack that will be playing with desperation.

The Lions could dominate the ball on Thursday, facing a Minnesota team likely starting Max Brosmer that is without a key running back, the starting center, and maybe even TE1. The Lions will be a motivated group after the dramatic loss to Pittsburgh at home on Sunday. The Lions' passing game is spreading the ball around more these days, giving TD value to guys outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Jameson Williams is a good price at +195 (buy to +160/+165) as he is getting 23% of the targets over the last three weeks and matching the yardage output of St. Brown, but is 70-plus cents longer for a TD. Since the Lions' bye in Week 8, Williams has had a TD in five of eight games, including one vs. the Vikes back in Week 9.

Gibbs has been one of the best receiving RB in the NFL in the second half of the season, and as his rushing numbers drop, his receiving output has spiked. He will be busy on Xmas, with this banged-up Lions o-line trying to keep the Vikings blitz at bay. Gibbs will be the quick release for Goff, especially with the TE position limited and St. Brown limping into Thursday. He’s drawn seven or more targets in five of his last six games and gone for 33 or more in four of those outings. I expect the Lions to have the football a lot, given the state of the Vikings offense right now.

The Vikings have a QB question on Christmas Day, with starter J.J. McCarthy leaving Week 16’s win over Giants with a throwing hand injury. Minnesota is slated for one of the December 25 games, leaving a very small window for “Nine” to heal up. His X-rays were negative, but the first-year starter wasn’t able to hold a football. And it’s not just McCarthy hurting heading into the holiday. Center Ryan Kelly and running back Jordan Mason are dealing with ailments. The Lions, on the other hand, pissed away a Week 16 home game to the Steelers. That puts their postseason chances in dire jeopardy. Detroit needs help from the other NFC contenders to qualify for the tournament and can’t afford another loss. This spread opened Lions -5.5 at Minnesota and the vig on that spread is climbing, indicating a potential move to the key number of -6 or higher.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an extraordinary 39.2% Red Zone Target% (100th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.. After totaling 68.0 air yards per game last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen marked improvement this season, currently averaging 83.0 per game.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 73.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 62.4.

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to be a more important option in his team's pass attack near the goal line in this week's contest (22.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.5% in games he has played).. Jahmyr Gibbs has notched a staggering 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Jahmyr Gibbs's 28.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 18.2.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Oliver to accrue 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. This year, the poor Lions defense has yielded a monstrous 247.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 8th-worst in the league.

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Our trusted projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 36.9 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Jared Goff is positioned as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 251.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.. Jared Goff grades out as one of the most efficient QBs in football this year, averaging an exceptional 7.92 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 81st percentile.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Oliver to accrue 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.