Detroit Lions
Picks

3rd in NFC North (1 - 1 - 0)

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at

Mon, Sep 22 20:15 ET

DET @ BAL Picks

Spread

DET +6.0 (-116)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 days ago

This spread is larger than the look-ahead spread (Baltimore -3.5) was back in the summer and I don't think that adjustment is warranted after two weeks. Ravens LB Kyle Van Noy (hamstring) and CB Marlon Humphrey (groin) are a risk to miss Week 3. The final score of the Ravens Week 2 win looked a lot better than what actually went down on the field. Baltimore won 41-17 but amassed only 242 yards (while allowing 323 against) and scored 21 of those points thanks in part to a blocked punt, fumble recovering and interception. Those big injuries and this inflated spread has me leaning toward Detroit as a 6-point underdog on MNF.

Receptions Made

Amon-Ra St. Brown u6.5 Receptions Made (+104)

Projection 5.6 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 11 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The predictive model expects the Lions to call the 11th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Detroit Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.. The Ravens pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.6%) versus WRs since the start of last season (63.6%).. The Ravens safeties project as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

+104 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Jared Goff u267.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Projection 250.5 (Under)

Best Odds

u267.5 -114

Pick made: 22 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u254.5 -112

u267.5 -114

u258.5 -115

u257.5 -115

The predictive model expects the Lions to call the 11th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Detroit Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.. The Ravens defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.09 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-fewest in the league.. The Ravens safeties project as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Lamar Jackson o215.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Projection 222.7 (Over)

Best Odds

o215.5 -114

Pick made: 19 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o220.5 -113

o215.5 -114

o220.5 -115

o218.5 -114

The Lions defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Lamar Jackson comes in as one of the most efficient passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 8.43 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 85th percentile.. Since the start of last season, the poor Lions defense has given up a staggering 239.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 7th-worst in the NFL.

-114 at FanDuel

Interceptions Thrown

Jared Goff u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+106)

Projection 0.4 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 22 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Detroit Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.. The Ravens safeties project as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

+106 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Derrick Henry o4.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 8.8 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The Lions defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Derrick Henry has played on 58.1% of his offense's snaps since the start of last season, ranking him in the 81st percentile among RBs.. Derrick Henry grades out as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among RBs, averaging a fantastic 9.83 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 93rd percentile.. Derrick Henry has been one of the leading RBs in the NFL at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a terrific 10.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 92nd percentile.. Since the start of last season, the porous Lions defense has surrendered the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a massive 8.07 yards.

Receiving Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs o22.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Projection 27.4 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 18 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The Lions are a 5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Lions as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a massive 59.3 per game on average).. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football.. Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to notch 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.

-109 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Zay Flowers o63.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Projection 70.2 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 23 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

The Lions defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Our trusted projections expect Zay Flowers to notch 8.5 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.. Zay Flowers has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 28.5% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.. In regards to air yards, Zay Flowers grades out in the lofty 85th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 78.0 per game.. With an impressive 65.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (88th percentile) since the start of last season, Zay Flowers places as one of the best WRs in the league in the NFL.

Receiving Yards

Sam LaPorta o44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 47.9 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 18 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The Lions are a 5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Lions as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a massive 59.3 per game on average).. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football.. Sam LaPorta has been one of the top TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 46.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

-113 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

Derrick Henry u88.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 76.3 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 32 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

Accounting for the game dynamics and approaches of each team, the projections expect this game (with an average of 26.83 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week.. The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Ravens since the start of last season (a measly 55.3 per game on average).. Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 97.0 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season.. The Detroit Lions defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Rushing Attempts

Derrick Henry u18.5 Rushing Attempts (-105)

Projection 16.7 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Accounting for the game dynamics and approaches of each team, the projections expect this game (with an average of 26.83 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week.. The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Ravens since the start of last season (a measly 55.3 per game on average).. The Detroit Lions defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Consensus Picks

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Total

77% picking Detroit vs Baltimore to go Over

77% 77%

23% 23%

Total PicksDET 388, BAL 114

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Top User Picks

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'SUNIN65' picks Detroit vs Baltimore to go Over (49.5)

SUNIN65 is #10 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'SUNIN65' is picking Detroit to cover (+6.5)

SUNIN65 is #10 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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DET

BAL

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'boedad' picks Detroit vs Baltimore to go Over (49.5)

boedad is #2 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'boedad' is picking Detroit to cover (+5.0)

boedad is #2 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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DET

BAL

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'spidermach1' is picking Detroit to cover (+5.0)

spidermach1 is #4 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'spidermach1' picks Detroit vs Baltimore to go Over (53.0)

spidermach1 is #4 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Oilystreaker' is picking Detroit to cover (+5.5)

Oilystreaker is #5 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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DET

BAL

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'Oilystreaker' picks Detroit vs Baltimore to go Over (52.0)

Oilystreaker is #5 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'texvette' is picking Detroit to cover (+6.0)

texvette is #7 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'texvette' picks Detroit vs Baltimore to go Under (52.0)

texvette is #7 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'boogs1064' is picking Detroit to cover (+6.0)

boogs1064 is #8 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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BAL

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'boogs1064' picks Detroit vs Baltimore to go Over (52.0)

boogs1064 is #8 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'flake' is picking Detroit to cover (+5.0)

flake is #9 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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DET

BAL

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