Detroit Lions

2nd in NFC North (6 - 2 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Nov 15 09:30 ET

NE @ DET Picks

NFL Picks
Total
New England Patriots image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail u51.5 (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The Patriots’ thinning pass protection has thrown quarterback Drake Maye into the fire. He’s been sacked nine times in the last three games, with four coming on Sunday. Detroit’s defense is second overall in sacks (27) and ranks among the Top 10 teams in pressure rate and pass rush win rate at EPSN. The Lions lit up the scoreboard for 164 points in the opening five games but have put up tallies of 19, 19 and 20 points in their last three outings. However, we’re still seeing Detroit draw tall totals, like the one in Munich. 

Moneyline
Detroit Lions image thumbnail DET (-138)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The injury list is long for the Patriots, with glaring gaps in the pass protection. The offensive line was already missing key blockers and currently has three starters listed as questionable. The Lions rank No. 3 in pass rush win rate at ESPN, own the seventh highest pressure rate, and have collected 27 sacks – third most in the NFL. Detroit is generating this chaos without the normal reliance on the blitz (15th in blitz rate), getting tremendous interior pressure with the defensive line.

Anytime Touchdown
Eli Raridon logo Eli Raridon Score a Touchdown (Yes: +310)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

The Detroit Lions are a tight-end funnel defensively, allowing a league-high 73.7 receiving yards and 1.03 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends, both of which rank last in the NFL. Rookie Eli Raridon played more snaps than Hunter Henry last week and saw double the targets. His six red-zone targets also lead all New England pass catchers. With some uncertainty in the Patriots' backfield, we could also see a slight uptick in pass rate against Detroit in Berlin on Sunday morning, and this matchup is as good as it gets for the tight end that I have a fair price of 3.7x.

Anytime Touchdown
Hunter Henry logo Hunter Henry Score a Touchdown (Yes: +250)
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The Lions’ pass defense has been an issue all season, with injuries in the secondary. Detroit has had a rough time with rival tight ends too, allowing the most yardage and 11 touchdowns to the position. Without its top two running backs, New England’s red zone work trickles down to the TE. Henry has drawn five red-zone targets for four catches and two touchdowns this season. 

Receiving Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo Amon-Ra St. Brown o80.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The Patriots enter Week 10 allowing the second most “explosive” passes of 20+ yards and are also missing defenders in the secondary, with DB Carlton Davis III out and DB Charles Woods and safety Kevin Byard questionable.
For his career, St. Brown is one of the most dangerous WRs versus man coverage and will face plenty of it from a Patriots secondary running man schemes at the second highest rate. St. Brown’s projections for Week 10 sit between 78 and 96 receiving yards, with my forecast coming out to 84 yards in Germany.

 

3 LEG PARLAY
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET
Moneyline
Amon-Ra St. Brown profile picture
Amon-Ra St. Brown o79.5 Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards
Hunter Henry profile picture
Hunter Henry Score a Touchdown (Yes)
Anytime Touchdown
Bet now
Pick made: 23 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The Patriots already have been beaten by NFC North teams this year and the matchup with Detroit isn’t easy. New England is lacking bodies all over the offense and it could be walking into a shootout, considering how bad the Pats’ defense has been. Amon-Ra St. Brown just watch the rival Packers pick apart this Patriots secondary and his projections sit as high as 96 yards receiving for a “homecoming” of sorts for the Lions WR1. Hunter Henry will be Drake Maye’s top target in the red zone, with New England’s running backs thin and Detroit getting torched by TEs this season.

Passing Yards
Jared Goff logo
Jared Goff o265.5 Passing Yards (-115) Projection 294.46 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. With a remarkable rate of 237.0 adjusted passing yards per game (84th percentile), Jared Goff ranks as one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a staggering 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.
Rushing Yards
Jared Goff logo
Jared Goff o0.5 Rushing Yards (+100) Projection 3.96 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, New England's DT corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.
Rushing Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Jahmyr Gibbs u96.5 Rushing Yards (-112) Projection 84.46 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to run on 39.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Receiving Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Amon-Ra St. Brown o78.5 Receiving Yards (-112) Projection 96.59 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. With an outstanding 79.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands among the leading WRs in the league in the league.. This year, the poor New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a staggering 178.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 2nd-worst in football.
Receiving Yards
Hunter Henry logo
Hunter Henry o35.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Projection 44.11 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to earn 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.. Hunter Henry has been one of the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an outstanding 37.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.
Receiving Yards
Sam LaPorta logo
Sam LaPorta o42.5 Receiving Yards (-112) Projection 51.35 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.2 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With a top-tier 83.9% Route% (94th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta has been among the TEs with the highest volume in football.. In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 91st percentile among tight ends with 6.1 targets.
Receiving Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Jahmyr Gibbs o30.5 Receiving Yards (-125) Projection 33.87 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With an outstanding 33.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (98th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as one of the leading RB receiving threats in the NFL.
Rushing Attempts
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Jahmyr Gibbs u20.5 Rushing Attempts (-120) Projection 17.61 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to run on 39.9% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Passing Completions
Jared Goff logo
Jared Goff o22.5 Passing Completions (-114) Projection 24.78 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. Jared Goff grades out as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with a stellar 67.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 87th percentile.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a staggering 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.
Anytime Touchdown
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Amon-Ra St. Brown Score a Touchdown (Yes: -111) Projection 0.74 (Yes)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.2 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 32.7% this year, which ranks in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has notched many more air yards this year (91.0 per game) than he did last year (85.0 per game).

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

74% picking Detroit

26%
74%

Total Picks NE 179, DET 515

Spread
NE
DET
Total

62% picking New England vs Detroit to go Over

62%
38%

Total PicksNE 269, DET 164

Total
Over
Under

NE @ DET · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -2.5 spread
-3.48 PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
1.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -2.5 spread

PROJECTION

-3.48 PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
1.79% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-2.5 -119
Caesars Odds logo
TOTAL
New England Patriots image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 50.5 Total
53.63 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
18.27% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
New England Patriots image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 50.5 Total

PROJECTION

53.63 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
18.27% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o49.5 -114
bet365 logo
PASSING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o265.5 Passing Yards
294.46 OVER PROJECTION
+29.0 DIFFERENCE
25.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o265.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

294.46 OVER PROJECTION
+29.0 DIFFERENCE
25.88% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. With a remarkable rate of 237.0 adjusted passing yards per game (84th percentile), Jared Goff ranks as one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a staggering 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

o265.5 -115
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o263.5 Passing Yards
264.45 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
6.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o263.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

264.45 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
6.38% EV

ANALYSIS

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Opposing teams have thrown for the most adjusted yards in the league (272.0 per game) versus the Lions defense this year.

o259.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
3.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

3.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, New England's DT corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.

o0.5 +105
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u96.5 Rushing Yards
84.46 UNDER PROJECTION
-12.0 DIFFERENCE
24.64% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u96.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

84.46 UNDER PROJECTION
-12.0 DIFFERENCE
24.64% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to run on 39.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

u97.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u29.5 Rushing Yards
26.72 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.8 DIFFERENCE
14.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u29.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

26.72 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.8 DIFFERENCE
14.87% EV

ANALYSIS

The New England Patriots have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.7 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. This year, the imposing Lions run defense has given up a puny 98.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 9th-fewest in football.. The Detroit Lions defensive tackles rank as the 9th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

u29.5 -135
theScore Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o78.5 Receiving Yards
96.59 OVER PROJECTION
+18.1 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o78.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

96.59 OVER PROJECTION
+18.1 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. With an outstanding 79.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands among the leading WRs in the league in the league.. This year, the poor New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a staggering 178.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 2nd-worst in football.

o75.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) o35.5 Receiving Yards
44.11 OVER PROJECTION
+8.6 DIFFERENCE
25.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) o35.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

44.11 OVER PROJECTION
+8.6 DIFFERENCE
25.1% EV

ANALYSIS

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to earn 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.. Hunter Henry has been one of the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an outstanding 37.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

o35.5 -110
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o42.5 Receiving Yards
51.35 OVER PROJECTION
+8.9 DIFFERENCE
24.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o42.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

51.35 OVER PROJECTION
+8.9 DIFFERENCE
24.61% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.2 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With a top-tier 83.9% Route% (94th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta has been among the TEs with the highest volume in football.. In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 91st percentile among tight ends with 6.1 targets.

o40.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o30.5 Receiving Yards
33.87 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
17.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o30.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

33.87 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
17.02% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With an outstanding 33.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (98th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as one of the leading RB receiving threats in the NFL.

o30.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.62 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.62 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.33% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With a top-tier 83.9% Route% (94th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta has been among the TEs with the highest volume in football.

o3.5 -159
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made
7.85 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.85 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.17% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. With an exceptional 6.8 adjusted catches per game (98th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks as one of the best WRs in the NFL in the league.. The Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (73%) to wideouts this year (73.0%).

o7.5 +117
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
9.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
9.57% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.5 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. Hunter Henry ranks as one of the leading pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 3.2 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.

o3.5 +124
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
7.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
7.46% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.. The Lions rank as the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.4% pass rate.. The Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

u4.5 -135
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u20.5 Rushing Attempts
17.61 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.9 DIFFERENCE
22.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u20.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

17.61 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.9 DIFFERENCE
22.69% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to run on 39.9% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

u20.5 -118
DraftKings logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts
4.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
2.27% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
2.27% EV

ANALYSIS

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.

o4.5 +105
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts
33.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
4.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
4.69% EV

ANALYSIS

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.

o32.5 -130
FanDuel logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts
35.43 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
1.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.43 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
1.95% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.2 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 37.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most among all QBs.

o34.5 -117
Caesars Odds logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o22.5 Passing Completions
24.78 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
16.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o22.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

24.78 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
16.73% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. Jared Goff grades out as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with a stellar 67.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 87th percentile.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a staggering 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

o22.5 -110
Caesars Odds logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions
21.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
8.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
8.44% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.5 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

o20.5 -130
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.74 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.74 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.2 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 32.7% this year, which ranks in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has notched many more air yards this year (91.0 per game) than he did last year (85.0 per game).

-105
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown
1.1 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

1.1 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Jahmyr Gibbs has put up a whopping 6.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

-235
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
DeMario Douglas logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Douglas (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DeMario Douglas logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Douglas (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.85% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (60.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The predictive model expects DeMario Douglas to be much more involved in his offense's passing game near the goal line in this game (19.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.0% in games he has played).

+255
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.33 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.33 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.85% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 60.0% of their chances: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (60.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.5 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

+250
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.26% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 37.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most among all QBs.

+1400
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.32 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.45% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With a sizeable 21.8% Red Zone Target% (92nd percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta rates among the TEs with the highest volume near the end zone in the league.

+205
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.58% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (60.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

+310
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Corey Kiner logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
C. Kiner (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-11.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Corey Kiner logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
C. Kiner (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-11.56% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (60.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

+125
BetMGM logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
21.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
21.77% EV

ANALYSIS

The New England Patriots have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.7 plays per game.. As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Detroit's unit has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the league.

u0.5 +112
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INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.40 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.40 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.33% EV

ANALYSIS

In registering only 0.25 interceptions per game this year, Jared Goff stands among the top QBs in the NFL (84th percentile).. The Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

u0.5 -119
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  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -2.5 spread
-3.48 PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
1.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
DET -2.5 spread

PROJECTION

-3.48 PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
1.79% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-2.5 -119
Caesars Odds logo
TOTAL
New England Patriots image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 50.5 Total
53.63 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
18.27% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
New England Patriots image thumbnail Detroit Lions image thumbnail
Over 50.5 Total

PROJECTION

53.63 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
18.27% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o49.5 -114
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PASSING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o265.5 Passing Yards
294.46 OVER PROJECTION
+29.0 DIFFERENCE
25.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o265.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

294.46 OVER PROJECTION
+29.0 DIFFERENCE
25.88% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. With a remarkable rate of 237.0 adjusted passing yards per game (84th percentile), Jared Goff ranks as one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a staggering 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

o265.5 -115
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PASSING YARDS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o263.5 Passing Yards
264.45 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
6.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o263.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

264.45 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
6.38% EV

ANALYSIS

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Opposing teams have thrown for the most adjusted yards in the league (272.0 per game) versus the Lions defense this year.

o259.5 -115
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RUSHING YARDS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
3.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

3.96 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, New England's DT corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.

o0.5 +105
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u96.5 Rushing Yards
84.46 UNDER PROJECTION
-12.0 DIFFERENCE
24.64% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u96.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

84.46 UNDER PROJECTION
-12.0 DIFFERENCE
24.64% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to run on 39.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

u97.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u29.5 Rushing Yards
26.72 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.8 DIFFERENCE
14.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u29.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

26.72 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.8 DIFFERENCE
14.87% EV

ANALYSIS

The New England Patriots have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.7 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. This year, the imposing Lions run defense has given up a puny 98.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 9th-fewest in football.. The Detroit Lions defensive tackles rank as the 9th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

u29.5 -135
theScore Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o78.5 Receiving Yards
96.59 OVER PROJECTION
+18.1 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o78.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

96.59 OVER PROJECTION
+18.1 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. With an outstanding 79.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands among the leading WRs in the league in the league.. This year, the poor New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a staggering 178.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 2nd-worst in football.

o75.5 -135
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RECEIVING YARDS
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) o35.5 Receiving Yards
44.11 OVER PROJECTION
+8.6 DIFFERENCE
25.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) o35.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

44.11 OVER PROJECTION
+8.6 DIFFERENCE
25.1% EV

ANALYSIS

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to earn 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.. Hunter Henry has been one of the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an outstanding 37.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

o35.5 -110
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RECEIVING YARDS
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o42.5 Receiving Yards
51.35 OVER PROJECTION
+8.9 DIFFERENCE
24.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o42.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

51.35 OVER PROJECTION
+8.9 DIFFERENCE
24.61% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.2 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With a top-tier 83.9% Route% (94th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta has been among the TEs with the highest volume in football.. In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 91st percentile among tight ends with 6.1 targets.

o40.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o30.5 Receiving Yards
33.87 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
17.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) o30.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

33.87 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
17.02% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With an outstanding 33.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (98th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as one of the leading RB receiving threats in the NFL.

o30.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.62 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.62 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
10.33% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With a top-tier 83.9% Route% (94th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta has been among the TEs with the highest volume in football.

o3.5 -159
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made
7.85 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) o7.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.85 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.17% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. With an exceptional 6.8 adjusted catches per game (98th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks as one of the best WRs in the NFL in the league.. The Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (73%) to wideouts this year (73.0%).

o7.5 +117
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
9.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
9.57% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.5 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. Hunter Henry ranks as one of the leading pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 3.2 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.

o3.5 +124
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
7.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
7.46% EV

ANALYSIS

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.. The Lions rank as the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.4% pass rate.. The Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

u4.5 -135
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u20.5 Rushing Attempts
17.61 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.9 DIFFERENCE
22.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) u20.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

17.61 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.9 DIFFERENCE
22.69% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to run on 39.9% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

u20.5 -118
DraftKings logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts
4.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
2.27% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
2.27% EV

ANALYSIS

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.

o4.5 +105
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts
33.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
4.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
4.69% EV

ANALYSIS

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.

o32.5 -130
FanDuel logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts
35.43 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
1.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.43 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
1.95% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.2 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 37.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most among all QBs.

o34.5 -117
Caesars Odds logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o22.5 Passing Completions
24.78 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
16.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) o22.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

24.78 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
16.73% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. Jared Goff grades out as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with a stellar 67.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 87th percentile.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a staggering 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

o22.5 -110
Caesars Odds logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions
21.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
8.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) o21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
8.44% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.5 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

o20.5 -130
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.74 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
A. St. Brown (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.74 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.2 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 32.7% this year, which ranks in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has notched many more air yards this year (91.0 per game) than he did last year (85.0 per game).

-105
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown
1.1 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Gibbs (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

1.1 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.03% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Jahmyr Gibbs has put up a whopping 6.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

-235
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
DeMario Douglas logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Douglas (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DeMario Douglas logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Douglas (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.85% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (60.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The predictive model expects DeMario Douglas to be much more involved in his offense's passing game near the goal line in this game (19.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.0% in games he has played).

+255
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.33 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Hunter Henry logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
H. Henry (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.33 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
14.85% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 60.0% of their chances: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (60.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.5 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

+250
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.26% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 37.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most among all QBs.

+1400
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Sam LaPorta logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
S. LaPorta (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.32 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.45% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Lions as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With a sizeable 21.8% Red Zone Target% (92nd percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta rates among the TEs with the highest volume near the end zone in the league.

+205
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.58% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (60.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

+310
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Corey Kiner logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
C. Kiner (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-11.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Corey Kiner logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
C. Kiner (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.41 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-11.56% EV

ANALYSIS

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (60.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in football.. The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

+125
BetMGM logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
21.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Drake Maye logo
New England Patriots image thumbnail
D. Maye (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
21.77% EV

ANALYSIS

The New England Patriots have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.7 plays per game.. As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Detroit's unit has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the league.

u0.5 +112
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.40 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jared Goff logo
Detroit Lions image thumbnail
J. Goff (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.40 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.33% EV

ANALYSIS

In registering only 0.25 interceptions per game this year, Jared Goff stands among the top QBs in the NFL (84th percentile).. The Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

u0.5 -119
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Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'twobwin' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.0)

twobwin is #1 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +6450 units on the season.

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NE
DET
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'Laker2223' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.0)

Laker2223 is #1 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +5450 units on the season.

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NE
DET
Total

'twobwin' picks New England vs Detroit to go Under (50.5)

twobwin is #1 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +6450 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Total

'Laker2223' picks New England vs Detroit to go Under (50.5)

Laker2223 is #1 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +5450 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'bamabilly' is picking Detroit to cover (-1.5)

bamabilly is #2 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +5450 units on the season.

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NE
DET
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'dglsgow' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.0)

dglsgow is #2 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +5400 units on the season.

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NE
DET
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'KINGDAIMYO' is picking Detroit to cover (-1.5)

KINGDAIMYO is #3 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +5350 units on the season.

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NE
DET
Total

'KINGDAIMYO' picks New England vs Detroit to go Over (51.5)

KINGDAIMYO is #3 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +5350 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Total

'Ace_123' picks New England vs Detroit to go Under (51.5)

Ace_123 is #3 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'Ace_123' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.0)

Ace_123 is #3 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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NE
DET
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'bobhay' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.0)

bobhay is #5 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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NE
DET
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'bobhay' picks New England vs Detroit to go Under (50.5)

bobhay is #5 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'IceHouseSports' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.0)

IceHouseSports is #6 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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NE
DET
Total

'IceHouseSports' picks New England vs Detroit to go Over (50.5)

IceHouseSports is #6 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'puntpat' is picking Detroit to cover (-3.0)

puntpat is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +4300 units on the season.

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NE
DET
Total

'puntpat' picks New England vs Detroit to go Over (51.5)

puntpat is #8 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +4300 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Total

'mikeb21' picks New England vs Detroit to go Over (51.5)

mikeb21 is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'mikeb21' is picking New England to cover (+2.5)

mikeb21 is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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NE
DET

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