Buffalo Bills

1st in AFC East (7 - 1 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Nov 15 13:00 ET

BUF @ NYJ Picks

NFL Picks
Spread
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail BUF -7.5 (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

With the Jets allowing the highest EPA per dropback across the past four weeks, my first Week 10 click is on the Bills. New York is a candidate to unload veterans ahead of the trade deadline, and Buffalo heads into Monday Night Football in Week 9 averaging the most points per game while ranking third in offensive DVOA. The Bills pull away in Week 10, and I suspect this number will dip closer to a double-digit spread by Sunday.

Passing Yards
Geno Smith logo
Geno Smith o215.5 Passing Yards (-115) Projection 226.77 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 27 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Geno Smith's 221.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows an impressive gain in his throwing prowess over last season's 178.0 rate.. Geno Smith profiles as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with an outstanding 67.4% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.
Passing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen o227.5 Passing Yards (-115) Projection 238.03 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 27 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Josh Allen has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (277.0) this season than he did last season (211.0).. With an impressive 8.21 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Josh Allen rates among the most efficient quarterbacks in football.. This year, the weak Jets defense has been torched for the 5th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to the opposing side: a staggering 5.02 YAC.. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the league.
Rushing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen o27.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Projection 38.90 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a big 8-point favorite this week.. The projections expect the Bills to be the 4th-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 47.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Josh Allen has run for substantially more yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).. This year, the poor Jets run defense has given up a monstrous 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 5th-worst in the league.
Rushing Yards
Breece Hall logo
Breece Hall o56.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Projection 58.77 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
With a 40.6% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league has been the Jets.. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to accumulate 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.. Among all RBs, Breece Hall grades out in the 93rd percentile for carries this year, taking on 63.1% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.. With a stellar tally of 56.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Breece Hall has been as one of the top pure rushers in football this year.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Buffalo's collection of DEs has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.
Rushing Yards
James Cook III logo
James Cook III u92.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Projection 85.35 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a mere 48.4 per game on average).. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New York's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in football.
Receiving Yards
Garrett Wilson logo
Garrett Wilson o61.5 Receiving Yards (-120) Projection 70.66 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to accrue 9.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.. Garrett Wilson has accumulated many more air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (80.0 per game).. Garrett Wilson has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (66.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
Receiving Yards
James Cook III logo
James Cook III o8.5 Receiving Yards (-120) Projection 13.53 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an impressive 65.5% Snap% (85th percentile) this year, James Cook places among the running backs with the highest volume in football.. With a fantastic 16.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (76th percentile) this year, James Cook ranks as one of the top pass-catching running backs in the league.. James Cook's 9.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a remarkable growth in his effectiveness in space over last year's 0.0% mark.. The New York Jets pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.90 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.
Receiving Yards
DJ Moore logo
DJ Moore o45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Projection 52.25 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. In this contest, DJ Moore is projected by the projections to land in the 78th percentile among WRs with 6.5 targets.. After accumulating 57.0 air yards per game last season, DJ Moore has undergone big improvement this season, now pacing 84.0 per game.. DJ Moore's 48.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 37.9.. DJ Moore has accrued a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (35.0).
Receptions Made
Garrett Wilson logo
Garrett Wilson o5.5 Receptions Made (-115) Projection 5.60 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to accrue 9.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Garrett Wilson's receiving skills have been refined this season, totaling 5.3 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 4.3 last season.
Rushing Attempts
Breece Hall logo
Breece Hall o12.5 Rushing Attempts (+105) Projection 14.40 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
With a 40.6% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league has been the Jets.. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to accumulate 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.. Among all RBs, Breece Hall grades out in the 93rd percentile for carries this year, taking on 63.1% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Buffalo's collection of DEs has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

70% picking Buffalo

70%
30%

Total Picks BUF 270, NYJ 118

Spread
BUF
NYJ
Total

46% picking Buffalo vs N.Y. Jets to go Under

54%
46%

Total PicksBUF 126, NYJ 109

Total
Over
Under

BUF @ NYJ · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
New York Jets image thumbnail
NYJ +7.5 spread
5.99 PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
11.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
New York Jets image thumbnail
NYJ +7.5 spread

PROJECTION

5.99 PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
11.24% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+7.5 -105
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail New York Jets image thumbnail
Under 50.5 Total
46.07 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.4 DIFFERENCE
22.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail New York Jets image thumbnail
Under 50.5 Total

PROJECTION

46.07 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.4 DIFFERENCE
22.19% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u51.0 -109
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o215.5 Passing Yards
226.77 OVER PROJECTION
+11.3 DIFFERENCE
21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o215.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

226.77 OVER PROJECTION
+11.3 DIFFERENCE
21% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Geno Smith's 221.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows an impressive gain in his throwing prowess over last season's 178.0 rate.. Geno Smith profiles as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with an outstanding 67.4% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.

o215.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o227.5 Passing Yards
238.03 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
19.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o227.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

238.03 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
19.29% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Josh Allen has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (277.0) this season than he did last season (211.0).. With an impressive 8.21 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Josh Allen rates among the most efficient quarterbacks in football.. This year, the weak Jets defense has been torched for the 5th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to the opposing side: a staggering 5.02 YAC.. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the league.

o225.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o27.5 Rushing Yards
38.90 OVER PROJECTION
+11.4 DIFFERENCE
25.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o27.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

38.90 OVER PROJECTION
+11.4 DIFFERENCE
25.96% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a big 8-point favorite this week.. The projections expect the Bills to be the 4th-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 47.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Josh Allen has run for substantially more yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).. This year, the poor Jets run defense has given up a monstrous 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 5th-worst in the league.

o27.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards
58.77 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
20.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

58.77 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
20.2% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 40.6% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league has been the Jets.. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to accumulate 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.. Among all RBs, Breece Hall grades out in the 93rd percentile for carries this year, taking on 63.1% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.. With a stellar tally of 56.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Breece Hall has been as one of the top pure rushers in football this year.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Buffalo's collection of DEs has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

o55.5 -115
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u92.5 Rushing Yards
85.35 UNDER PROJECTION
-7.1 DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u92.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

85.35 UNDER PROJECTION
-7.1 DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a mere 48.4 per game on average).. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New York's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in football.

u92.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o61.5 Receiving Yards
70.66 OVER PROJECTION
+9.2 DIFFERENCE
25.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o61.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

70.66 OVER PROJECTION
+9.2 DIFFERENCE
25.98% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to accrue 9.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.. Garrett Wilson has accumulated many more air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (80.0 per game).. Garrett Wilson has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (66.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).

o60.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o8.5 Receiving Yards
13.53 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
24.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o8.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

13.53 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
24.94% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an impressive 65.5% Snap% (85th percentile) this year, James Cook places among the running backs with the highest volume in football.. With a fantastic 16.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (76th percentile) this year, James Cook ranks as one of the top pass-catching running backs in the league.. James Cook's 9.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a remarkable growth in his effectiveness in space over last year's 0.0% mark.. The New York Jets pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.90 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.

o7.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards
52.25 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
22.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

52.25 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
22.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. In this contest, DJ Moore is projected by the projections to land in the 78th percentile among WRs with 6.5 targets.. After accumulating 57.0 air yards per game last season, DJ Moore has undergone big improvement this season, now pacing 84.0 per game.. DJ Moore's 48.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 37.9.. DJ Moore has accrued a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (35.0).

o45.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o15.5 Receiving Yards
17.52 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
10.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o15.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

17.52 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
10.07% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. Our trusted projections expect Breece Hall to earn 2.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Breece Hall's 28.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 18.0 figure.

o13.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made
5.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.03% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to accrue 9.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Garrett Wilson's receiving skills have been refined this season, totaling 5.3 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 4.3 last season.

o5.5 +100
Caesars Odds logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.05 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
6.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.05 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
6.89% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. In this contest, DJ Moore is projected by the projections to land in the 78th percentile among WRs with 6.5 targets.. DJ Moore's 48.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 37.9.. DJ Moore's receiving talent has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 3.9 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 2.5 last season.. The New York Jets pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.1%) versus wideouts this year (68.1%).

o3.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made
2.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
2.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
2.61% EV

ANALYSIS

The Jets rank as the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.4% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast the Jets to call the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Jets this year (only 55.3 per game on average).. Breece Hall has gone out for fewer passes this season (31.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (43.5%).. The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 7th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

u2.5 -145
Hard Rock Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
1.57 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-12.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.57 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-12.62% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an impressive 65.5% Snap% (85th percentile) this year, James Cook places among the running backs with the highest volume in football.. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the league.

o1.5 -110
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o12.5 Rushing Attempts
14.40 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
18.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o12.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.40 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
18.8% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 40.6% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league has been the Jets.. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to accumulate 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.. Among all RBs, Breece Hall grades out in the 93rd percentile for carries this year, taking on 63.1% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Buffalo's collection of DEs has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

o12.5 +105
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u20.5 Rushing Attempts
18.09 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.4 DIFFERENCE
16.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u20.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

18.09 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.4 DIFFERENCE
16.96% EV

ANALYSIS

The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a mere 48.4 per game on average).. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New York's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in football.

u20.5 -125
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o7.5 Rushing Attempts
7.50 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o7.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

7.50 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a big 8-point favorite this week.. The projections expect the Bills to be the 4th-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 47.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The projections expect Josh Allen to accrue 7.8 carries this week, on average: the most among all quarterbacks.. Taking on 23.3% of his team's run game usage this year (100th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Josh Allen's mobility marks him as a dangerous weapon in Buffalo's rushing attack.

o6.5 -122
Caesars Odds logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o27.5 Passing Attempts
29.47 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
6.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o27.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

29.47 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
6.1% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.

o27.5 -125
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts
32.10 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-15.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

32.10 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-15.17% EV

ANALYSIS

The Jets rank as the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.4% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast the Jets to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Jets this year (only 55.3 per game on average).

u32.5 -121
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions
20.25 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.25 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.12% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a big 8-point favorite this week.. The model projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 52.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a mere 48.4 per game on average).. Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.. Josh Allen's 66.2% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a noteworthy regression in his passing precision over last season's 71.1% rate.

u20.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
20.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-13.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-13.18% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Geno Smith profiles as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with an outstanding 67.4% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

o19.5 -125
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. After accumulating 57.0 air yards per game last season, DJ Moore has undergone big improvement this season, now pacing 84.0 per game.. DJ Moore's 48.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 37.9.. With a fantastic ratio of 0.40 per game through the air (83rd percentile), DJ Moore stands as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among WRs this year.. The New York Jets pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.1%) versus wideouts this year (68.1%).

+205
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.37% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With a remarkable 19.4% Red Zone Target Share (88th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid places among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.. Dalton Kincaid has totaled a monstrous 44.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Dalton Kincaid slots into the 89th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a monstrous 38.3 mark this year.. Dalton Kincaid grades out in the 76th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a remarkable 0.29 per game.

+250
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.74 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.74 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.62% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. This year, the porous Jets defense has given up a staggering 71.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 10th-worst rate in the league.. The New York Jets defense has been gouged for the 7th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.78 per game this year.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New York's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in football.

-182
Caesars Odds logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.7 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.7 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.09% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. This year, the feeble New York Jets defense has yielded a monstrous 0.44 TDs through the air per game to opposing RBs: the 2nd-biggest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New York's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in football.

-185
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.53 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.53 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.69% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. While Breece Hall has garnered 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of New York's passing attack near the goal line in this game at 7.2%.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Breece Hall's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 89.6% to 92.9%.

-125
bet365 logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.12% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a big 8-point favorite this week.. The model projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 52.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a mere 48.4 per game on average).. The projections expect Josh Allen to attempt 31.8 passes in this game, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

u0.5 -168
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.76 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.76 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.95% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Buffalo's defense ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year as it relates to forcing interceptions, compiling a mere 0.52 per game.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

o0.5 -115
bet365 logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
New York Jets image thumbnail
NYJ +7.5 spread
5.99 PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
11.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
New York Jets image thumbnail
NYJ +7.5 spread

PROJECTION

5.99 PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
11.24% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+7.5 -105
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail New York Jets image thumbnail
Under 50.5 Total
46.07 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.4 DIFFERENCE
22.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail New York Jets image thumbnail
Under 50.5 Total

PROJECTION

46.07 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.4 DIFFERENCE
22.19% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u51.0 -109
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o215.5 Passing Yards
226.77 OVER PROJECTION
+11.3 DIFFERENCE
21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o215.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

226.77 OVER PROJECTION
+11.3 DIFFERENCE
21% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Geno Smith's 221.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows an impressive gain in his throwing prowess over last season's 178.0 rate.. Geno Smith profiles as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with an outstanding 67.4% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.

o215.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o227.5 Passing Yards
238.03 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
19.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o227.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

238.03 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
19.29% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Josh Allen has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (277.0) this season than he did last season (211.0).. With an impressive 8.21 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Josh Allen rates among the most efficient quarterbacks in football.. This year, the weak Jets defense has been torched for the 5th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to the opposing side: a staggering 5.02 YAC.. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the league.

o225.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o27.5 Rushing Yards
38.90 OVER PROJECTION
+11.4 DIFFERENCE
25.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o27.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

38.90 OVER PROJECTION
+11.4 DIFFERENCE
25.96% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a big 8-point favorite this week.. The projections expect the Bills to be the 4th-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 47.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Josh Allen has run for substantially more yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).. This year, the poor Jets run defense has given up a monstrous 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 5th-worst in the league.

o27.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards
58.77 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
20.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

58.77 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
20.2% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 40.6% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league has been the Jets.. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to accumulate 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.. Among all RBs, Breece Hall grades out in the 93rd percentile for carries this year, taking on 63.1% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.. With a stellar tally of 56.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Breece Hall has been as one of the top pure rushers in football this year.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Buffalo's collection of DEs has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

o55.5 -115
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u92.5 Rushing Yards
85.35 UNDER PROJECTION
-7.1 DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u92.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

85.35 UNDER PROJECTION
-7.1 DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a mere 48.4 per game on average).. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New York's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in football.

u92.5 -115
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RECEIVING YARDS
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o61.5 Receiving Yards
70.66 OVER PROJECTION
+9.2 DIFFERENCE
25.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o61.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

70.66 OVER PROJECTION
+9.2 DIFFERENCE
25.98% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to accrue 9.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.. Garrett Wilson has accumulated many more air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (80.0 per game).. Garrett Wilson has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (66.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).

o60.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o8.5 Receiving Yards
13.53 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
24.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o8.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

13.53 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
24.94% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an impressive 65.5% Snap% (85th percentile) this year, James Cook places among the running backs with the highest volume in football.. With a fantastic 16.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (76th percentile) this year, James Cook ranks as one of the top pass-catching running backs in the league.. James Cook's 9.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a remarkable growth in his effectiveness in space over last year's 0.0% mark.. The New York Jets pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.90 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.

o7.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards
52.25 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
22.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

52.25 OVER PROJECTION
+6.7 DIFFERENCE
22.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. In this contest, DJ Moore is projected by the projections to land in the 78th percentile among WRs with 6.5 targets.. After accumulating 57.0 air yards per game last season, DJ Moore has undergone big improvement this season, now pacing 84.0 per game.. DJ Moore's 48.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 37.9.. DJ Moore has accrued a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (35.0).

o45.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o15.5 Receiving Yards
17.52 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
10.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o15.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

17.52 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
10.07% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. Our trusted projections expect Breece Hall to earn 2.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Breece Hall's 28.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 18.0 figure.

o13.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made
5.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Garrett Wilson logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Wilson (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.60 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.03% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to accrue 9.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Garrett Wilson's receiving skills have been refined this season, totaling 5.3 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 4.3 last season.

o5.5 +100
Caesars Odds logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.05 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
6.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.05 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
6.89% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. In this contest, DJ Moore is projected by the projections to land in the 78th percentile among WRs with 6.5 targets.. DJ Moore's 48.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 37.9.. DJ Moore's receiving talent has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 3.9 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 2.5 last season.. The New York Jets pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.1%) versus wideouts this year (68.1%).

o3.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made
2.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
2.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.22 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
2.61% EV

ANALYSIS

The Jets rank as the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.4% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast the Jets to call the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Jets this year (only 55.3 per game on average).. Breece Hall has gone out for fewer passes this season (31.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (43.5%).. The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 7th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

u2.5 -145
Hard Rock Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
1.57 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-12.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.57 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-12.62% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an impressive 65.5% Snap% (85th percentile) this year, James Cook places among the running backs with the highest volume in football.. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the league.

o1.5 -110
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RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o12.5 Rushing Attempts
14.40 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
18.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) o12.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.40 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
18.8% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 40.6% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league has been the Jets.. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to accumulate 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.. Among all RBs, Breece Hall grades out in the 93rd percentile for carries this year, taking on 63.1% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Buffalo's collection of DEs has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

o12.5 +105
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RUSHING ATTEMPTS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u20.5 Rushing Attempts
18.09 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.4 DIFFERENCE
16.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u20.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

18.09 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.4 DIFFERENCE
16.96% EV

ANALYSIS

The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a mere 48.4 per game on average).. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New York's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in football.

u20.5 -125
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RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o7.5 Rushing Attempts
7.50 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o7.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

7.50 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
9.65% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a big 8-point favorite this week.. The projections expect the Bills to be the 4th-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 47.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The projections expect Josh Allen to accrue 7.8 carries this week, on average: the most among all quarterbacks.. Taking on 23.3% of his team's run game usage this year (100th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Josh Allen's mobility marks him as a dangerous weapon in Buffalo's rushing attack.

o6.5 -122
Caesars Odds logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o27.5 Passing Attempts
29.47 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
6.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o27.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

29.47 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
6.1% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.

o27.5 -125
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts
32.10 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-15.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

32.10 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
-15.17% EV

ANALYSIS

The Jets rank as the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.4% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast the Jets to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Jets this year (only 55.3 per game on average).

u32.5 -121
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions
20.25 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.25 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.12% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a big 8-point favorite this week.. The model projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 52.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a mere 48.4 per game on average).. Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.. Josh Allen's 66.2% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a noteworthy regression in his passing precision over last season's 71.1% rate.

u20.5 -125
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
20.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-13.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-13.18% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Geno Smith profiles as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with an outstanding 67.4% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

o19.5 -125
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.19% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. After accumulating 57.0 air yards per game last season, DJ Moore has undergone big improvement this season, now pacing 84.0 per game.. DJ Moore's 48.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 37.9.. With a fantastic ratio of 0.40 per game through the air (83rd percentile), DJ Moore stands as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among WRs this year.. The New York Jets pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.1%) versus wideouts this year (68.1%).

+205
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ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.37 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.37% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With a remarkable 19.4% Red Zone Target Share (88th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid places among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.. Dalton Kincaid has totaled a monstrous 44.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Dalton Kincaid slots into the 89th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a monstrous 38.3 mark this year.. Dalton Kincaid grades out in the 76th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a remarkable 0.29 per game.

+250
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.74 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.74 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.62% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. This year, the porous Jets defense has given up a staggering 71.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 10th-worst rate in the league.. The New York Jets defense has been gouged for the 7th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.78 per game this year.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New York's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in football.

-182
Caesars Odds logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.7 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.7 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.09% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. This year, the feeble New York Jets defense has yielded a monstrous 0.44 TDs through the air per game to opposing RBs: the 2nd-biggest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New York's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in football.

-185
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.53 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Breece Hall logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
B. Hall (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.53 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.69% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. While Breece Hall has garnered 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of New York's passing attack near the goal line in this game at 7.2%.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Breece Hall's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 89.6% to 92.9%.

-125
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INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
12.12% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a big 8-point favorite this week.. The model projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 52.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a mere 48.4 per game on average).. The projections expect Josh Allen to attempt 31.8 passes in this game, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

u0.5 -168
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.76 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Geno Smith logo
New York Jets image thumbnail
G. Smith (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.76 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.95% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Buffalo's defense ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year as it relates to forcing interceptions, compiling a mere 0.52 per game.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

o0.5 -115
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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'buffalo2007' picks Buffalo vs N.Y. Jets to go Over (50.5)

buffalo2007 is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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Under
Spread

'buffalo2007' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+8.5)

buffalo2007 is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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BUF
NYJ
Spread

'joebatters' is picking Buffalo to cover (-7.5)

joebatters is #10 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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BUF
NYJ
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'joebatters' picks Buffalo vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (50.5)

joebatters is #10 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Spread

'Wildcat168' is picking Buffalo to cover (-7.0)

Wildcat168 is #4 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
NYJ
Spread

'BillyJack' is picking Buffalo to cover (-7.5)

BillyJack is #5 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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BUF
NYJ
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'BillyJack' picks Buffalo vs N.Y. Jets to go Over (50.5)

BillyJack is #5 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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Over
Under
Spread

'swtknguy' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

swtknguy is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4350 units on the season.

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BUF
NYJ
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'swtknguy' picks Buffalo vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (51.5)

swtknguy is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4350 units on the season.

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