Buffalo Bills

Picks

With regression in mind, I’m forecast a better showing from the Jets’ defense and a return to earth for the New York offense. Justin Fields looked like Lamar Jackson out there. Luckily for the Bills, they just game-planned for the best dual-threat QB in the league and can apply those lessons. Buffalo can’t be happy with its defensive efforts on Sunday night and there will be a lot of attention on Bobby Babich’s stop unit this week. The Jets are a run-heavy scheme under new OC Tanner Engstrand and ran 39 times in Week 1. New York will try to take air out of the football and control possession. Buffalo is a TD favorite and will be playing with the lead, should game script hold up. That means more drawn-out series and an emphasis on the run in the second half. The Bills also have a short week ahead with a Thursday game in Week 3. That could have them playing it safe with starters if they get up big.

I expect regression from the Jets offense, especially with Buffalo just coming off a run-in with another dual threat QB but one far better than Fields. Buffalo DC Bobby Babich laid into his stop unit after Sunday’s showing, lighting a fire under that defense. The Jets have a run-heavy scheme and will take the air out of the football. The Bills also have a quick turnaround for TNF next week, so they could park the bus with a big lead in the second half. This total was 44.5 on the look-ahead lines. Going Under 46.5 points.

These two offenses combined for 73 points and nine touchdowns in Week 1—plenty of scoring, and plenty of value in the TD market for Week 2. Three names I’m targeting: Josh Allen (-105), Justin Fields (+145), and Braelon Allen (+245). The Jets leaned run-heavy in the red zone last week—Fields didn’t attempt a single RZ pass but ran it four times, punching in two scores. Braelon Allen saw 50% of the RB red zone carries and found the end zone from eight yards out. Meanwhile, Josh Allen tied Christian McCaffrey for the most RZ rushes in Week 1 (8 attempts). I'd happily play Josh Allen down to -125, but there’s real value on both Jets players too. Allen’s my favorite, but I’ll be betting all three this week.

Wilson is the unquestioned top dog in New York’s passing attack, lining up alongside arguably the worst receiving corps in the league aside from him. Wilson should easily clear this reception line as Fields looks to him early and often.

Buffalo may have to get creative to get the ball in Coleman’s hands, but Allen should be slinging it against a Jets defense that allowed four passing touchdowns but just 53 rushing yards on 20 carries to the Steelers in Week 1.

Wilson snagged seven of nine targets for 95 yards in Week 1. He led all receivers in yards per route run (3.80) and passer rating when targeted (155.7), while his separation percentage of 75%  was the second-highest among players with at least six targets. Wilson has hit the 1,000-yard plateau in each of his first three seasons and looks poised to reach another level this year. Buffalo's pass defense fell apart down the stretch last season, ranking last in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate after Week 9. The Bills were last in the league in defensive dropback EPA last week and they are banged-up at CB with multiple projected starters on the IR.

Fields isn’t in the same class as Lamar Jackson, but he’s far above average as a rusher at his position. Buffalo’s defense is dealing with multiple injuries, including the absence of starting defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Look for Fields to rack up yards with his legs in this one.