Buffalo Bills

Picks

It’s MVP vs. MVP, and I’m backing Josh Allen to find the end zone at plus money. Allen has scored four rushing touchdowns in his last four games against the Chiefs and is coming off a game where he ran just three times for seven yards—but two of those carries went for scores. The Bills have their own version of the tush push, and when they get inside the five, James Cook TD bettors have every reason to sweat, as Allen continues to steal short-yardage touchdowns. Last week, his TD price closed at -120, and it’s been as short as -165 this season. In a high-profile matchup like this, Allen should rise to the occasion at home, where he’s scored 37 rushing touchdowns in 58 career games. It's an A+ at +110, and I'd play it to -120. 

Keon Coleman has stayed below his receiving yards prop in three of the last four weeks, including just three catches on four targets for 30 yards in last Sunday’s blowout of the Panthers. Some of that was Buffalo playing with a lead and running more but OC Joe Brady admitted this week that he has to do a better job getting Coleman involved in the offense. Projections for Coleman range from 37 yards to a ceiling of 57, with the majority of models coming in north of 40 yards receiving. Given the high point total for this showdown with the Chiefs, there could be more passing opportunities and targets coming Coleman’s way in Week 9.

This Sunday’s marquee showdown between the Chiefs and Bills will feel like a playoff game, which means Josh Allen is doing it all. The Buffalo QB makes plays with his legs in the biggest games and has run up and down Spagnuolo’s defense in recent meetings: 39, 42, 55, 68, 72, 88. No. Those aren’t tonight’s winning lotto numbers – those are some Allen’s recent rushing tallies versus KC. Add in the fact, the Chiefs have given up the third most rushing yards to QBs so far in 2025 and some Allen projections north of 40 and I like him to top 35.5 rushing yards in Week 9.

The most important edge for the Bills, however, is their rushing game. Buffalo is going to go heavy with RB James Cook and QB Josh Allen, who can pull back the curtain on this Kansas City defense. The Chiefs have been very stingy during this current turnaround but a lot of that has to do with building big leads early. That’s forcing opponents to abandon the run (third lowest run rate against in last three games) and throw into the teeth of this Steve Spagnoulo scheme. Kansas City is near the bottom of the league in run stop win rate at ESPN, is 23rd in run stop rating at PFF, and sits No. 22 in EPA allowed per handoff. In their last three head-to-head battles, the Bills have marched for 433 total rushing yards on 102 attempts. Buffalo’s dominance with the run in 2025 has made it the top “TOP” team in the league, chewing through 33:14 worth of possession per game and limiting opponents’ opportunities with the football.

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate.. While Rashee Rice has garnered 22.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Kansas City's pass game near the goal line in this week's game at 28.5%.. Rashee Rice ranks in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 53.3 mark since the start of last season.. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average).. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.. Travis Kelce's 16.6% Target Share this season illustrates a substantial reduction in his air attack workload over last season's 24.6% rate.. Travis Kelce's pass-catching performance worsened this year, accumulating just 4.5 adjusted catches compared to 6.1 last year.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average).. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.. Opposing offenses have passed for the 3rd-fewest yards in the league (just 180.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are projected by the predictive model to run just 61.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.. The projections expect Josh Allen to attempt 32.3 passes this week, on average: the 8th-fewest among all quarterbacks.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 25.5 per game) this year.. Josh Allen has passed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (200.0) this season than he did last season (237.0).

The model projects Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.. Khalil Shakir has been an integral part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 20.1% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.. Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching an exceptional 80.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.. Khalil Shakir profiles as one of the most efficient receivers in the league, averaging a terrific 9.45 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 77th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. In this game, Rashee Rice is forecasted by our trusted projection set to place in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.7 targets.. Rashee Rice has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 26.6% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.. Rashee Rice is positioned as one of the best possession receivers in the league, completing an impressive 80.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 86th percentile among WRs.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average).. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.. Travis Kelce's 16.6% Target Share this season illustrates a substantial reduction in his air attack workload over last season's 24.6% rate.. After averaging 59.0 air yards per game last year, Travis Kelce has fallen off this year, currently pacing 27.0 per game.

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.. The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The projections expect Josh Allen to accumulate 7.8 carries in this game, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all quarterbacks.. The leading projections forecast Josh Allen to be a more important option in his team's run game in this week's contest (28.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (21.5% in games he has played).. With an excellent total of 36.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Josh Allen has been among the leading running QBs in the NFL this year.. Josh Allen's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, averaging 6.81 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 5.65 rate last season.. The Kansas City defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

The model projects the Chiefs to be the 5th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 37.9% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average).. Isiah Pacheco has been much less involved in his team's rushing attack this season (38.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (50.3%).