Buffalo Bills Picks
1st in AFC East
(7 - 1 - 0)
Next Game
Sun, Nov 15
13:00 ET
BUF @ NYJ Picks
NFL Picks
Spread
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
With the Jets allowing the highest EPA per dropback across the past four weeks, my first Week 10 click is on the Bills. New York is a candidate to unload veterans ahead of the trade deadline, and Buffalo heads into Monday Night Football in Week 9 averaging the most points per game while ranking third in offensive DVOA. The Bills pull away in Week 10, and I suspect this number will dip closer to a double-digit spread by Sunday.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Geno Smith's 221.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows an impressive gain in his throwing prowess over last season's 178.0 rate.. Geno Smith profiles as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with an outstanding 67.4% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Josh Allen has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (277.0) this season than he did last season (211.0).. With an impressive 8.21 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Josh Allen rates among the most efficient quarterbacks in football.. This year, the weak Jets defense has been torched for the 5th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to the opposing side: a staggering 5.02 YAC.. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the league.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a big 8-point favorite this week.. The projections expect the Bills to be the 4th-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 47.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Josh Allen has run for substantially more yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).. This year, the poor Jets run defense has given up a monstrous 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 5th-worst in the league.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
With a 40.6% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league has been the Jets.. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to accumulate 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.. Among all RBs, Breece Hall grades out in the 93rd percentile for carries this year, taking on 63.1% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.. With a stellar tally of 56.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Breece Hall has been as one of the top pure rushers in football this year.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Buffalo's collection of DEs has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a mere 48.4 per game on average).. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New York's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the best in football.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to accrue 9.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.. Garrett Wilson has accumulated many more air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (80.0 per game).. Garrett Wilson has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (66.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. With an impressive 65.5% Snap% (85th percentile) this year, James Cook places among the running backs with the highest volume in football.. With a fantastic 16.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (76th percentile) this year, James Cook ranks as one of the top pass-catching running backs in the league.. James Cook's 9.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a remarkable growth in his effectiveness in space over last year's 0.0% mark.. The New York Jets pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.90 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. In this contest, DJ Moore is projected by the projections to land in the 78th percentile among WRs with 6.5 targets.. After accumulating 57.0 air yards per game last season, DJ Moore has undergone big improvement this season, now pacing 84.0 per game.. DJ Moore's 48.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 37.9.. DJ Moore has accrued a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (35.0).
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This game's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are big -8-point underdogs.. The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (38.8 per game) this year.. Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to accrue 9.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.. Garrett Wilson's receiving skills have been refined this season, totaling 5.3 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 4.3 last season.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
With a 40.6% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league has been the Jets.. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to accumulate 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.. Among all RBs, Breece Hall grades out in the 93rd percentile for carries this year, taking on 63.1% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Buffalo's collection of DEs has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusBUF @ NYJ · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
NYJ
+7.5 spread
5.99
PROJECTION
-1.5
DIFFERENCE
11.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Under
50.5 Total
46.07 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.4
DIFFERENCE
22.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
G. Smith
(QB)
o215.5 Passing Yards
226.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.3
DIFFERENCE
21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Allen
(QB)
o227.5 Passing Yards
238.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.5
DIFFERENCE
19.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Allen
(QB)
o27.5 Rushing Yards
38.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.4
DIFFERENCE
25.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
B. Hall
(RB)
o56.5 Rushing Yards
58.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.3
DIFFERENCE
20.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Cook III
(RB)
u92.5 Rushing Yards
85.35 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.1
DIFFERENCE
20.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
G. Wilson
(WR)
o61.5 Receiving Yards
70.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.2
DIFFERENCE
25.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Cook III
(RB)
o8.5 Receiving Yards
13.53 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.0
DIFFERENCE
24.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Moore
(WR)
o45.5 Receiving Yards
52.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.7
DIFFERENCE
22.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Hall
(RB)
o15.5 Receiving Yards
17.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.0
DIFFERENCE
10.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
G. Wilson
(WR)
o5.5 Receptions Made
5.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
18.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Moore
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions Made
4.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
6.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Hall
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.22 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
2.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Cook III
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
1.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-12.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
B. Hall
(RB)
o12.5 Rushing Attempts
14.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
18.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Cook III
(RB)
u20.5 Rushing Attempts
18.09 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.4
DIFFERENCE
16.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Allen
(QB)
o7.5 Rushing Attempts
7.50 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
9.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Allen
(QB)
o27.5 Passing Attempts
29.47 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.0
DIFFERENCE
6.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
G. Smith
(QB)
u32.5 Passing Attempts
32.10 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-15.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Allen
(QB)
u20.5 Passing Completions
20.25 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-0.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
G. Smith
(QB)
o20.5 Passing Completions
20.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-13.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Moore
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.46 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
20.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Kincaid
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Allen
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.74 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Cook III
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.7 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Hall
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.53 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-5.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Allen
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.39 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
12.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
G. Smith
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.76 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-0.95%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
NYJ
+7.5 spread
5.99
PROJECTION
-1.5
DIFFERENCE
11.24%
EV
TOTAL
Under
50.5 Total
46.07 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.4
DIFFERENCE
22.19%
EV
PASSING YARDS
G. Smith
(QB)
o215.5 Passing Yards
226.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.3
DIFFERENCE
21%
EV
PASSING YARDS
J. Allen
(QB)
o227.5 Passing Yards
238.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.5
DIFFERENCE
19.29%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
J. Allen
(QB)
o27.5 Rushing Yards
38.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.4
DIFFERENCE
25.96%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
B. Hall
(RB)
o56.5 Rushing Yards
58.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.3
DIFFERENCE
20.2%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
J. Cook III
(RB)
u92.5 Rushing Yards
85.35 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.1
DIFFERENCE
20.19%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
G. Wilson
(WR)
o61.5 Receiving Yards
70.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.2
DIFFERENCE
25.98%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Cook III
(RB)
o8.5 Receiving Yards
13.53 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.0
DIFFERENCE
24.94%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Moore
(WR)
o45.5 Receiving Yards
52.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.7
DIFFERENCE
22.68%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Hall
(RB)
o15.5 Receiving Yards
17.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.0
DIFFERENCE
10.07%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
G. Wilson
(WR)
o5.5 Receptions Made
5.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
18.03%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Moore
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions Made
4.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
6.89%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Hall
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.22 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
2.61%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Cook III
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
1.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-12.62%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
B. Hall
(RB)
o12.5 Rushing Attempts
14.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
18.8%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Cook III
(RB)
u20.5 Rushing Attempts
18.09 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.4
DIFFERENCE
16.96%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Allen
(QB)
o7.5 Rushing Attempts
7.50 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
9.65%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Allen
(QB)
o27.5 Passing Attempts
29.47 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.0
DIFFERENCE
6.1%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
G. Smith
(QB)
u32.5 Passing Attempts
32.10 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-15.17%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Allen
(QB)
u20.5 Passing Completions
20.25 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-0.12%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
G. Smith
(QB)
o20.5 Passing Completions
20.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-13.18%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Moore
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.46 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
20.19%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Kincaid
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.37%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Allen
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.74 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.62%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Cook III
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.7 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.09%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Hall
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.53 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-5.69%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Allen
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.39 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
12.12%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
G. Smith
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.76 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-0.95%
EV
BUF @ NYJ · Trends
BUF
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Under
BUF
NYJ
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Under
BUF
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
BUF
NYJ