Buffalo Bills Picks
1st in AFC East
(6 - 1 - 0)
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BUF @ MIN Picks
NFL PicksMinnesota's defense is legit, but its offense is a mess. The Vikings rank 24th or worse in scoring, yards per play, and third-down conversion rate, and we're supposed to believe Carson Wentz fixes that? They were outgained by 118 yards against Detroit and have scored 16 or fewer in three of four games. That's not enough against the NFL's top-scoring Bills.
The Vikings have flown under the radar as one of the NFL's best Under teams, hitting in 16 of their last 19 games for a 60% ROI. This 44.5 total has moved below the key number of 44 elsewhere and opened as high as 47.5 on the lookahead. Josh Allen has historically had success against Brian Flores (16:2 TD-to-INT over six games), but Buffalo's offensive line injuries and this blitz-heavy defense have me leaning Under. The Bills could be without three starting linemen, while Josh Palmer is doubtful, DJ Moore is limited, and Khalil Shakir missed Friday's practice (personal). Buffalo could score 25 and this still could cash comfortably with how ugly Carson Wentz and this offense have looked. They were already a bottom-five offense with Kyler Murray under center.
Give me the Minnesota Vikings on the moneyline, as I price them closer to a 45% underdog. At 38% on Kalshi, I'm definitely hitting the button. All you hear about the Vikings is how their 6-1 record is fraudulent and they're due to come crashing back to earth. But with a rocking home crowd, extra preparation time for Brian Flores to get his defense ready for Josh Allen, and the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong, I think Minnesota is the side here. It's the Bills who are the real frauds.
As dominant as the Vikings defense has been, Bills QB Josh Allen presents a unique challenge for Brian Flores’ stop unit. Minnesota has yet to face a QB who can move away from pressure, extended plays, and scramble like Josh Allen. The Vikings’ QB competition so far has been primarily pocket passers. Allen is one of the better QBs against blitz, rating No. 5 in PFF ratings, and is also at his best against zone coverage, which is something Flores runs almost exclusively. Allen owns the No. 9 passer rating vs. zone heading into Week 9.
The potential loss of Kyler Murray doesn't significantly change my outlook on this play, but any quality receiver against this Buffalo defense at 3.5x or better is worth a look. I got Jordan Addison at 4.0x after he saw eight targets and accounted for 52% of the air yards in Week 8. There's a good chance Minnesota will have to push the ball downfield as a 3.5-point underdog in an indoor game, which sets up nicely for a 4.0x TD price. No team allows more receiving TDs to opposing wide receivers than the Bills at 1.35 per game. They're also a bottom-seven unit in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate.
Monday presents a rare edge for Moore with this trip to U.S. Bank Stadium being just the second time Moore has played indoors this season. The last indoor outing was Week 1, with Moore catching five of eight passes his way for 100 yards in his Buffalo debut. Throughout his career, Moore has thrived inside with his average yards per reception at 14.75 in climate-controlled conditions versus just 13.2 outdoors. Moore’s Week 9 forecasts range between 42 yards and a ceiling of 64.5, with most models at 50+ receiving yards. My number comes out to 55 yards from Moore on MNF.
The Minnesota tight end projects for 48.8 receiving yards Monday night, per Covers. The likely passing-game script offers multiple paths to get there, including potential garbage-time production in an indoor game that should boost passing volume and efficiency. In Wentz's two games for Minnesota this season, the tight end was the No. 2 option in the passing game, finishing second in receiving yards in both games, including that ugly 9-3 outdoor matchup in Chicago. Buffalo ranks in the bottom 10 in yardage allowed to opposing tight ends, and T.J. Hockenson has virtually no competition for snaps, playing 82% of them last week.
Addison is a home run threat for Minnesota, topping the team in air yards and receptions of 30+ yards (three) entering Week 9. The Buffalo secondary has been busted for big plays, giving up the sixth most “explosive” passes (27). Addison drew five targets for just two catches and 21 yards in Wentz’s first full start in Week 2. But going back to last season, Addison had a total of 30 targets for 21 catches in Wentz’s four starts, averaging 77.25 yards per game on 14.7 yards per reception. My projections have him closer to 50 yards on MNF.
Josh Allen is among the top-rated QBs using the run against blitzing defenses at PFF and has 19 scrambles for 204 rushing yards heading into Week 9. There are also injury concerns on the left side of the Bills offensive line heading into MNF, with Alec Anderson and Dion Dawkins listed as questionable. Player forecasts have Allen’s rushing output between 29 and 39.5 yards, with the majority of projections north of 30 yards, My number sits at 35 gains on the ground from Allen versus the Vikes.
Both tight ends are projecting over their reception totals, with T.J. Hockenson at 4.94 and Dalton Kincaid at 4.14. Hockenson saw four targets in Wentz's only start in the rain in Chicago, but was also targeted five times in the season opener. He should see more opportunities with Wentz under center than he did with Murray. Kincaid has things back on track with 11 catches over his last two games, and the injuries to Buffalo's other pass catchers only help his outlook. He should be back in that 6-8 target range. Carson Wentz is plus money to throw an interception, which is great value on its own, especially if Minnesota is chasing points as a 3-point home underdog. The extra day of rest should also benefit Buffalo's defense more than Minnesota's offense. Wentz threw five interceptions in five starts last season.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusBUF @ MIN · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
43.5 Total
47.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.4
DIFFERENCE
18.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
C. Wentz
(QB)
o202.5 Passing Yards
229.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+26.7
DIFFERENCE
25.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Allen
(QB)
o237.5 Passing Yards
250.54 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.0
DIFFERENCE
21.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
C. Wentz
(QB)
o7.5 Rushing Yards
12.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.4
DIFFERENCE
25.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Cook III
(RB)
u84.5 Rushing Yards
74.56 UNDER
PROJECTION
-9.9
DIFFERENCE
24.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Allen
(QB)
o28.5 Rushing Yards
34.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.7
DIFFERENCE
22.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
A. Jones Sr.
(RB)
o31.5 Rushing Yards
32.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
13.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Kincaid
(TE)
o36.5 Receiving Yards
50.38 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.9
DIFFERENCE
26.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
A. Jones Sr.
(RB)
o7.5 Receiving Yards
14.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.1
DIFFERENCE
26.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Cook III
(RB)
o8.5 Receiving Yards
14.76 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.3
DIFFERENCE
25.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
T. Hockenson
(TE)
o40.5 Receiving Yards
48.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.2
DIFFERENCE
24.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Moore
(WR)
o45.5 Receiving Yards
53.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.1
DIFFERENCE
23.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Jefferson
(WR)
o75.5 Receiving Yards
78.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
8.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Kincaid
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions Made
4.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
16.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Jefferson
(WR)
u6.5 Receptions Made
5.87 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
13.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Moore
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions Made
4.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
11.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
A. Jones Sr.
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
2.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
10.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
T. Hockenson
(TE)
o4.5 Receptions Made
4.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Cook III
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
1.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-5.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Cook III
(RB)
u18.5 Rushing Attempts
16.51 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
17.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Allen
(QB)
u7.5 Rushing Attempts
6.67 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
13.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
A. Jones Sr.
(RB)
u8.5 Rushing Attempts
8.02 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
9.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
C. Wentz
(QB)
u3.5 Rushing Attempts
2.99 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
7.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
C. Wentz
(QB)
o30.5 Passing Attempts
31.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
11.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Allen
(QB)
o30.5 Passing Attempts
31.06 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
7.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Allen
(QB)
o20.5 Passing Completions
21.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
16.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
C. Wentz
(QB)
o18.5 Passing Completions
20.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
15.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Kincaid
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.36 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
20.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Moore
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.35 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
20.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Wentz
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.1 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
17.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Jefferson
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.5 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
15.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Hockenson
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.38 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Jones Sr.
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-9.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Allen
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-10.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Cook III
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-14.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Allen
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
15.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
C. Wentz
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
10.82%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low