Buffalo Bills

2nd in AFC East (0 - 0 - 0)

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Sun, Sep 13 13:00 ET

BUF @ HOU Picks

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Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

51% picking Buffalo

51%
49%

Total Picks BUF 801, HOU 760

Spread
BUF
HOU
Total

53% picking Buffalo vs Houston to go Under

47%
53%

Total PicksBUF 477, HOU 528

Total
Over
Under

BUF @ HOU · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Houston Texans image thumbnail
HOU +1.5 spread
0.03 PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
9.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Houston Texans image thumbnail
HOU +1.5 spread

PROJECTION

0.03 PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
9.89% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+1.5 -113
BetRivers logo
TOTAL
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail Houston Texans image thumbnail
Over 44.5 Total
48.64 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail Houston Texans image thumbnail
Over 44.5 Total

PROJECTION

48.64 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.61% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o44.5 -108
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o223.5 Passing Yards
251.31 OVER PROJECTION
+27.8 DIFFERENCE
25.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o223.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

251.31 OVER PROJECTION
+27.8 DIFFERENCE
25.72% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.0 passes this week, on balance: the 7th-most among all QBs.. Last year, the deficient Bills defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing teams: a staggering 0.00 YAC.

o215.5 -114
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o219.5 Passing Yards
246.48 OVER PROJECTION
+27.0 DIFFERENCE
25.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o219.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

246.48 OVER PROJECTION
+27.0 DIFFERENCE
25.7% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.. Josh Allen comes in as one of the leading passers in the league last year, averaging an exceptional 212.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

o219.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
18.62 OVER PROJECTION
+8.1 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

18.62 OVER PROJECTION
+8.1 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. C.J. Stroud's running efficiency (7.38 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league last year (97th percentile when it comes to QBs).. The Buffalo Bills defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games last year, yielding 5.20 adjusted yards-per-carry.

o9.5 -120
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o30.5 Rushing Yards
36.18 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
25.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o30.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

36.18 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
25.09% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The projections expect Josh Allen to earn 6.8 carries in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all QBs.. Accounting for 19.7% of his team's carries last year (92nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Josh Allen's mobility makes him a dangerous threat in Buffalo's rushing attack.. With an exceptional total of 39.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (100th percentile), Josh Allen places among the leading rushing quarterbacks in the league last year.. With a fantastic tally of 7.5 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (100th percentile), Josh Allen rates among the best rushing quarterbacks in the league last year.

o29.5 -130
theScore Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards
54.43 OVER PROJECTION
+8.9 DIFFERENCE
24.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.43 OVER PROJECTION
+8.9 DIFFERENCE
24.04% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect DJ Moore to earn 6.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.. Our trusted projections expect DJ Moore to be a more important option in his team's pass attack in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (15.4% in games he has played).

o45.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards
75.40 OVER PROJECTION
+5.9 DIFFERENCE
23.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

75.40 OVER PROJECTION
+5.9 DIFFERENCE
23.94% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect Nico Collins to accrue 9.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. Nico Collins has been a big part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 24.8% last year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

o69.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o32.5 Receiving Yards
39.62 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
23.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o32.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

39.62 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
23.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. In this contest, Dalton Schultz is forecasted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.1 targets.. Dalton Schultz has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 19.0% last year, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs.

o30.5 -140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o37.5 Receiving Yards
42.37 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
22.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o37.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

42.37 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
22.42% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this game, Dalton Kincaid is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 86th percentile among TEs with 5.3 targets.. As it relates to air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the towering 88th percentile among tight ends last year, averaging a superb 39.0 per game.

o35.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) o10.5 Receiving Yards
13.29 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
21.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) o10.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

13.29 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
21.14% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. David Montgomery profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among RBs, catching a stellar 91.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 77th percentile.. With a fantastic 7.3 adjusted yards per target (86th percentile) last year, David Montgomery stands as one of the leading RB receiving threats in the league.

o8.5 -155
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
5.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
5.6% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect DJ Moore to earn 6.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.. Our trusted projections expect DJ Moore to be a more important option in his team's pass attack in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (15.4% in games he has played).

o3.5 -125
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.93 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
5.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.93 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
5.08% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. In this contest, Dalton Schultz is forecasted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.1 targets.. With an impressive 4.0 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) last year, Dalton Schultz stands as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the league.

o3.5 -105
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
1.81 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-2.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.81 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-2.02% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. David Montgomery profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among RBs, catching a stellar 91.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 77th percentile.

o1.5 -122
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u17.5 Rushing Attempts
15.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
14.34% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u17.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

15.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
14.34% EV

ANALYSIS

Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

u17.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) u13.5 Rushing Attempts
12.72 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) u13.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

12.72 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.71% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Texans as the 6th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 39.8% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Bills defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best DT corps in the NFL last year when it comes to stopping the run.

u14.5 -155
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o5.5 Rushing Attempts
6.64 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
0.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o5.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

6.64 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
0.91% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The projections expect Josh Allen to earn 6.8 carries in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all QBs.. Accounting for 19.7% of his team's carries last year (92nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Josh Allen's mobility makes him a dangerous threat in Buffalo's rushing attack.

o5.5 -175
Hard Rock Bet logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o29.5 Passing Attempts
32.29 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
16.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o29.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

32.29 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
16.7% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.1 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

o29.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts
34.16 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
15.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.16 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
15.12% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.0 passes this week, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

o31.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions
21.46 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
13.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.46 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
13.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.0 passes this week, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

o19.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions
21.38 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
12.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.38 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
12.48% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.1 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.. Josh Allen profiles as one of the most on-target QBs in the league last year with an impressive 71.2% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

o19.5 -104
Caesars logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.04% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. While DJ Moore has garnered 16.4% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played last year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Buffalo's offense near the goal line in this game at 21.7%.. The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

+280
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.23% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.23% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Nico Collins has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 25.7% last year, which ranks him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

+165
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.09% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. As it relates to air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the towering 88th percentile among tight ends last year, averaging a superb 39.0 per game.. Dalton Kincaid's 35.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 84th percentile for TEs.

+380
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
0.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
0.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Dalton Schultz has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 14.1% last year, which ranks in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.

+340
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-0.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-0.06% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. James Cook has put up a massive 3.0 air yards per game last year: 94th percentile among running backs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. James Cook ranks in the 75th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) with a superb 13.4 mark last year.

+110
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.39 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.39 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.67% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. David Montgomery profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among RBs, catching a stellar 91.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 77th percentile.

+105
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.35 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-18.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.35 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-18.25% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.1 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.. Josh Allen profiles as one of the most on-target QBs in the league last year with an impressive 71.2% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

+145
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-18.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-18.25% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.0 passes this week, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

+1000
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.21% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the 11th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Houston Texans have intercepted 1.13 balls per game last year, grading out as the 2nd-best defense in the NFL by this stat.

u0.5 +102
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.41% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.0 passes this week, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

o0.5 -125
Hard Rock Bet logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Houston Texans image thumbnail
HOU +1.5 spread
0.03 PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
9.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Houston Texans image thumbnail
HOU +1.5 spread

PROJECTION

0.03 PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
9.89% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+1.5 -113
BetRivers logo
TOTAL
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail Houston Texans image thumbnail
Over 44.5 Total
48.64 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail Houston Texans image thumbnail
Over 44.5 Total

PROJECTION

48.64 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.61% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o44.5 -108
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o223.5 Passing Yards
251.31 OVER PROJECTION
+27.8 DIFFERENCE
25.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o223.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

251.31 OVER PROJECTION
+27.8 DIFFERENCE
25.72% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.0 passes this week, on balance: the 7th-most among all QBs.. Last year, the deficient Bills defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing teams: a staggering 0.00 YAC.

o215.5 -114
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o219.5 Passing Yards
246.48 OVER PROJECTION
+27.0 DIFFERENCE
25.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o219.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

246.48 OVER PROJECTION
+27.0 DIFFERENCE
25.7% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.. Josh Allen comes in as one of the leading passers in the league last year, averaging an exceptional 212.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

o219.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
18.62 OVER PROJECTION
+8.1 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

18.62 OVER PROJECTION
+8.1 DIFFERENCE
25.91% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. C.J. Stroud's running efficiency (7.38 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league last year (97th percentile when it comes to QBs).. The Buffalo Bills defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games last year, yielding 5.20 adjusted yards-per-carry.

o9.5 -120
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o30.5 Rushing Yards
36.18 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
25.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o30.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

36.18 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
25.09% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The projections expect Josh Allen to earn 6.8 carries in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all QBs.. Accounting for 19.7% of his team's carries last year (92nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Josh Allen's mobility makes him a dangerous threat in Buffalo's rushing attack.. With an exceptional total of 39.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (100th percentile), Josh Allen places among the leading rushing quarterbacks in the league last year.. With a fantastic tally of 7.5 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (100th percentile), Josh Allen rates among the best rushing quarterbacks in the league last year.

o29.5 -130
theScore Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards
54.43 OVER PROJECTION
+8.9 DIFFERENCE
24.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.43 OVER PROJECTION
+8.9 DIFFERENCE
24.04% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect DJ Moore to earn 6.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.. Our trusted projections expect DJ Moore to be a more important option in his team's pass attack in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (15.4% in games he has played).

o45.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards
75.40 OVER PROJECTION
+5.9 DIFFERENCE
23.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

75.40 OVER PROJECTION
+5.9 DIFFERENCE
23.94% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect Nico Collins to accrue 9.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. Nico Collins has been a big part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 24.8% last year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

o69.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o32.5 Receiving Yards
39.62 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
23.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o32.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

39.62 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
23.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. In this contest, Dalton Schultz is forecasted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.1 targets.. Dalton Schultz has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 19.0% last year, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs.

o30.5 -140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o37.5 Receiving Yards
42.37 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
22.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o37.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

42.37 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
22.42% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this game, Dalton Kincaid is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 86th percentile among TEs with 5.3 targets.. As it relates to air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the towering 88th percentile among tight ends last year, averaging a superb 39.0 per game.

o35.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) o10.5 Receiving Yards
13.29 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
21.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) o10.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

13.29 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
21.14% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. David Montgomery profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among RBs, catching a stellar 91.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 77th percentile.. With a fantastic 7.3 adjusted yards per target (86th percentile) last year, David Montgomery stands as one of the leading RB receiving threats in the league.

o8.5 -155
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
5.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
5.6% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect DJ Moore to earn 6.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.. Our trusted projections expect DJ Moore to be a more important option in his team's pass attack in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (15.4% in games he has played).

o3.5 -125
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.93 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
5.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.93 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
5.08% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. In this contest, Dalton Schultz is forecasted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.1 targets.. With an impressive 4.0 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) last year, Dalton Schultz stands as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the league.

o3.5 -105
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
1.81 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-2.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.81 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-2.02% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. David Montgomery profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among RBs, catching a stellar 91.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 77th percentile.

o1.5 -122
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u17.5 Rushing Attempts
15.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
14.34% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u17.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

15.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
14.34% EV

ANALYSIS

Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

u17.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) u13.5 Rushing Attempts
12.72 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) u13.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

12.72 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.71% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Texans as the 6th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 39.8% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Bills defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best DT corps in the NFL last year when it comes to stopping the run.

u14.5 -155
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o5.5 Rushing Attempts
6.64 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
0.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o5.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

6.64 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
0.91% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The projections expect Josh Allen to earn 6.8 carries in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all QBs.. Accounting for 19.7% of his team's carries last year (92nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Josh Allen's mobility makes him a dangerous threat in Buffalo's rushing attack.

o5.5 -175
Hard Rock Bet logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o29.5 Passing Attempts
32.29 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
16.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o29.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

32.29 OVER PROJECTION
+2.8 DIFFERENCE
16.7% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.1 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

o29.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts
34.16 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
15.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.16 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
15.12% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.0 passes this week, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

o31.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions
21.46 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
13.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.46 OVER PROJECTION
+2.0 DIFFERENCE
13.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.0 passes this week, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

o19.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions
21.38 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
12.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.38 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
12.48% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.1 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.. Josh Allen profiles as one of the most on-target QBs in the league last year with an impressive 71.2% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

o19.5 -104
Caesars logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.04% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. While DJ Moore has garnered 16.4% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played last year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Buffalo's offense near the goal line in this game at 21.7%.. The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

+280
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.23% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.23% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Nico Collins has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 25.7% last year, which ranks him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

+165
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.09% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. As it relates to air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the towering 88th percentile among tight ends last year, averaging a superb 39.0 per game.. Dalton Kincaid's 35.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 84th percentile for TEs.

+380
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
0.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
0.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Dalton Schultz has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 14.1% last year, which ranks in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.

+340
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-0.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-0.06% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. James Cook has put up a massive 3.0 air yards per game last year: 94th percentile among running backs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. James Cook ranks in the 75th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) with a superb 13.4 mark last year.

+110
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.39 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
David Montgomery logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Montgomery (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.39 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.67% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. David Montgomery profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among RBs, catching a stellar 91.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 77th percentile.

+105
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.35 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-18.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.35 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-18.25% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.1 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.. Josh Allen profiles as one of the most on-target QBs in the league last year with an impressive 71.2% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

+145
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-18.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.07 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-18.25% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.0 passes this week, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

+1000
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.21% EV

ANALYSIS

Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the 11th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Houston Texans have intercepted 1.13 balls per game last year, grading out as the 2nd-best defense in the NFL by this stat.

u0.5 +102
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-5.41% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.0 passes this week, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

o0.5 -125
Hard Rock Bet logo

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