Buffalo Bills

1st in AFC East (6 - 1 - 0)

Next Game

Mon, Nov 9 20:15 ET

BUF @ MIN Picks

NFL Picks
Spread
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail BUF -3.5 (+113)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Joe Osborne logo
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

Minnesota's defense is legit, but its offense is a mess. The Vikings rank 24th or worse in scoring, yards per play, and third-down conversion rate, and we're supposed to believe Carson Wentz fixes that? They were outgained by 118 yards against Detroit and have scored 16 or fewer in three of four games. That's not enough against the NFL's top-scoring Bills.

Total
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail u44.5 (-113)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

The Vikings have flown under the radar as one of the NFL's best Under teams, hitting in 16 of their last 19 games for a 60% ROI. This 44.5 total has moved below the key number of 44 elsewhere and opened as high as 47.5 on the lookahead. Josh Allen has historically had success against Brian Flores (16:2 TD-to-INT over six games), but Buffalo's offensive line injuries and this blitz-heavy defense have me leaning Under. The Bills could be without three starting linemen, while Josh Palmer is doubtful, DJ Moore is limited, and Khalil Shakir missed Friday's practice (personal). Buffalo could score 25 and this still could cash comfortably with how ugly Carson Wentz and this offense have looked. They were already a bottom-five offense with Kyler Murray under center.

Moneyline
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail MIN (+163)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 days ago
Jon Metler logo
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst

Give me the Minnesota Vikings on the moneyline, as I price them closer to a 45% underdog. At 38% on Kalshi, I'm definitely hitting the button. All you hear about the Vikings is how their 6-1 record is fraudulent and they're due to come crashing back to earth. But with a rocking home crowd, extra preparation time for Brian Flores to get his defense ready for Josh Allen, and the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong, I think Minnesota is the side here. It's the Bills who are the real frauds.

Moneyline
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail BUF (-172)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 days ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

As dominant as the Vikings defense has been, Bills QB Josh Allen presents a unique challenge for Brian Flores’ stop unit. Minnesota has yet to face a QB who can move away from pressure, extended plays, and scramble like Josh Allen. The Vikings’ QB competition so far has been primarily pocket passers. Allen is one of the better QBs against blitz, rating No. 5 in PFF ratings, and is also at his best against zone coverage, which is something Flores runs almost exclusively. Allen owns the No. 9 passer rating vs. zone heading into Week 9.

Anytime Touchdown
Jordan Addison logo Jordan Addison Score a Touchdown (Yes: +300)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

The potential loss of Kyler Murray doesn't significantly change my outlook on this play, but any quality receiver against this Buffalo defense at 3.5x or better is worth a look. I got Jordan Addison at 4.0x after he saw eight targets and accounted for 52% of the air yards in Week 8. There's a good chance Minnesota will have to push the ball downfield as a 3.5-point underdog in an indoor game, which sets up nicely for a 4.0x TD price. No team allows more receiving TDs to opposing wide receivers than the Bills at 1.35 per game. They're also a bottom-seven unit in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate.

Receiving Yards
DJ Moore logo DJ Moore o45.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Monday presents a rare edge for Moore with this trip to U.S. Bank Stadium being just the second time Moore has played indoors this season. The last indoor outing was Week 1, with Moore catching five of eight passes his way for 100 yards in his Buffalo debut. Throughout his career, Moore has thrived inside with his average yards per reception at 14.75 in climate-controlled conditions versus just 13.2 outdoors. Moore’s Week 9 forecasts range between 42 yards and a ceiling of 64.5, with most models at 50+ receiving yards. My number comes out to 55 yards from Moore on MNF.

Receiving Yards
T.J. Hockenson logo T.J. Hockenson o39.5 Receiving Yards (-127)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

The Minnesota tight end projects for 48.8 receiving yards Monday night, per Covers. The likely passing-game script offers multiple paths to get there, including potential garbage-time production in an indoor game that should boost passing volume and efficiency. In Wentz's two games for Minnesota this season, the tight end was the No. 2 option in the passing game, finishing second in receiving yards in both games, including that ugly 9-3 outdoor matchup in Chicago. Buffalo ranks in the bottom 10 in yardage allowed to opposing tight ends, and T.J. Hockenson has virtually no competition for snaps, playing 82% of them last week.

Receiving Yards
Jordan Addison logo Jordan Addison o39.5 Receiving Yards (-106)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Addison is a home run threat for Minnesota, topping the team in air yards and receptions of 30+ yards (three) entering Week 9. The Buffalo secondary has been busted for big plays, giving up the sixth most “explosive” passes (27). Addison drew five targets for just two catches and 21 yards in Wentz’s first full start in Week 2. But going back to last season, Addison had a total of 30 targets for 21 catches in Wentz’s four starts, averaging 77.25 yards per game on 14.7 yards per reception. My projections have him closer to 50 yards on MNF.

Rushing Yards
Josh Allen logo Josh Allen o28.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Josh Allen is among the top-rated QBs using the run against blitzing defenses at PFF and has 19 scrambles for 204 rushing yards heading into Week 9. There are also injury concerns on the left side of the Bills offensive line heading into MNF, with Alec Anderson and Dion Dawkins listed as questionable. Player forecasts have Allen’s rushing output between 29 and 39.5 yards, with the majority of projections north of 30 yards, My number sits at 35 gains on the ground from Allen versus the Vikes.

3 LEG PARLAY
T.J. Hockenson profile picture
T.J. Hockenson o4.5 Receptions Made
Receptions Made
Dalton Kincaid profile picture
Dalton Kincaid o3.5 Receptions Made
Receptions Made
Carson Wentz profile picture
Carson Wentz o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
Interceptions Thrown
Bet now
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Both tight ends are projecting over their reception totals, with T.J. Hockenson at 4.94 and Dalton Kincaid at 4.14. Hockenson saw four targets in Wentz's only start in the rain in Chicago, but was also targeted five times in the season opener. He should see more opportunities with Wentz under center than he did with Murray. Kincaid has things back on track with 11 catches over his last two games, and the injuries to Buffalo's other pass catchers only help his outlook. He should be back in that 6-8 target range. Carson Wentz is plus money to throw an interception, which is great value on its own, especially if Minnesota is chasing points as a 3-point home underdog. The extra day of rest should also benefit Buffalo's defense more than Minnesota's offense. Wentz threw five interceptions in five starts last season.

Passing Yards
Carson Wentz logo
Carson Wentz o202.5 Passing Yards (-117) Projection 229.18 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Carson Wentz has attempted 30.8 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
Passing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen o237.5 Passing Yards (-115) Projection 250.54 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Josh Allen's 242.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a remarkable gain in his passing skills over last season's 211.0 mark.. With an outstanding 8.27 adjusted yards-per-target (94th percentile) this year, Josh Allen stands among the most effective passers in the NFL.
Rushing Yards
Carson Wentz logo
Carson Wentz o7.5 Rushing Yards (-112) Projection 12.89 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 39 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Rushing Yards
James Cook III logo
James Cook III u84.5 Rushing Yards (-114) Projection 74.56 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 125.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Minnesota Vikings defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
Rushing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen o28.5 Rushing Yards (-118) Projection 34.19 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
A rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a 3-point favorite this week.. The predictive model expects Josh Allen to accrue 6.9 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the most among all quarterbacks.. Josh Allen isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 23.3% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among quarterbacks.. Josh Allen's 52.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season reflects a substantial gain in his rushing prowess over last season's 39.0 mark.. With an outstanding total of 7.7 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (81st percentile), Josh Allen stands among the best running QBs in football this year.
Receiving Yards
Dalton Kincaid logo
Dalton Kincaid o36.5 Receiving Yards (-105) Projection 50.38 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 39 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this week's contest, Dalton Kincaid is projected by the projections to place in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.8 targets.. Dalton Kincaid has put up quite a few more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (39.0 per game).. Dalton Kincaid's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 35.4.. Dalton Kincaid has accumulated significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
Receiving Yards
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Aaron Jones Sr. o7.5 Receiving Yards (-113) Projection 14.6 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Vikings to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
Receiving Yards
James Cook III logo
James Cook III o8.5 Receiving Yards (-113) Projection 14.76 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an extraordinary 8.9% Target Share (75th percentile) this year, James Cook stands as one of the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in football.. With a terrific 16.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (75th percentile) this year, James Cook stands among the best pass-game RBs in the league.. James Cook's 9.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a significant progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 0.0% rate.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
T.J. Hockenson logo
T.J. Hockenson o40.5 Receiving Yards (-120) Projection 48.7 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 41 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.. T.J. Hockenson's 43.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a significant boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 27.0 rate.
Receiving Yards
DJ Moore logo
DJ Moore o45.5 Receiving Yards (-117) Projection 53.63 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 41 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The predictive model expects DJ Moore to accrue 6.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.. DJ Moore has put up far more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (57.0 per game).. DJ Moore's 47.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 37.9.. DJ Moore has put up a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (35.0).

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

62% picking Buffalo

62%
38%

Total Picks BUF 635, MIN 393

Spread
BUF
MIN
Total

40% picking Buffalo vs Minnesota to go Under

60%
40%

Total PicksBUF 386, MIN 258

Total
Over
Under

BUF @ MIN · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
BUF -3.5 spread
-4.05 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
7.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
BUF -3.5 spread

PROJECTION

-4.05 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
7.94% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

0.0 -186
BetRivers logo
TOTAL
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
Over 43.5 Total
47.86 OVER PROJECTION
+4.4 DIFFERENCE
18.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
Over 43.5 Total

PROJECTION

47.86 OVER PROJECTION
+4.4 DIFFERENCE
18.35% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o43.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING YARDS
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o202.5 Passing Yards
229.18 OVER PROJECTION
+26.7 DIFFERENCE
25.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o202.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

229.18 OVER PROJECTION
+26.7 DIFFERENCE
25.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Carson Wentz has attempted 30.8 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

o202.5 -117
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o237.5 Passing Yards
250.54 OVER PROJECTION
+13.0 DIFFERENCE
21.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o237.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

250.54 OVER PROJECTION
+13.0 DIFFERENCE
21.76% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Josh Allen's 242.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a remarkable gain in his passing skills over last season's 211.0 mark.. With an outstanding 8.27 adjusted yards-per-target (94th percentile) this year, Josh Allen stands among the most effective passers in the NFL.

o230.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards
12.89 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
25.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

12.89 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
25.8% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o5.5 -155
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u84.5 Rushing Yards
74.56 UNDER PROJECTION
-9.9 DIFFERENCE
24.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u84.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

74.56 UNDER PROJECTION
-9.9 DIFFERENCE
24.02% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 125.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Minnesota Vikings defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

u84.5 -114
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o28.5 Rushing Yards
34.19 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
22.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o28.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

34.19 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
22.68% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a 3-point favorite this week.. The predictive model expects Josh Allen to accrue 6.9 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the most among all quarterbacks.. Josh Allen isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 23.3% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among quarterbacks.. Josh Allen's 52.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season reflects a substantial gain in his rushing prowess over last season's 39.0 mark.. With an outstanding total of 7.7 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (81st percentile), Josh Allen stands among the best running QBs in football this year.

o28.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o31.5 Rushing Yards
32.55 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o31.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

32.55 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.04% EV

ANALYSIS

Aaron Jones has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (36.0).

o31.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards
50.38 OVER PROJECTION
+13.9 DIFFERENCE
26.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

50.38 OVER PROJECTION
+13.9 DIFFERENCE
26.89% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this week's contest, Dalton Kincaid is projected by the projections to place in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.8 targets.. Dalton Kincaid has put up quite a few more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (39.0 per game).. Dalton Kincaid's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 35.4.. Dalton Kincaid has accumulated significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).

o35.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o7.5 Receiving Yards
14.60 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
26.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o7.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

14.60 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
26.02% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Vikings to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

o7.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o8.5 Receiving Yards
14.76 OVER PROJECTION
+6.3 DIFFERENCE
25.64% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o8.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

14.76 OVER PROJECTION
+6.3 DIFFERENCE
25.64% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an extraordinary 8.9% Target Share (75th percentile) this year, James Cook stands as one of the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in football.. With a terrific 16.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (75th percentile) this year, James Cook stands among the best pass-game RBs in the league.. James Cook's 9.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a significant progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 0.0% rate.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

o8.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards
48.70 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
24.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

48.70 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
24.12% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.. T.J. Hockenson's 43.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a significant boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 27.0 rate.

o39.5 -135
theScore Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards
53.63 OVER PROJECTION
+8.1 DIFFERENCE
23.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

53.63 OVER PROJECTION
+8.1 DIFFERENCE
23.88% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The predictive model expects DJ Moore to accrue 6.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.. DJ Moore has put up far more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (57.0 per game).. DJ Moore's 47.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 37.9.. DJ Moore has put up a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (35.0).

o44.5 -115
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards
78.12 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
8.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

78.12 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
8.39% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.. Justin Jefferson checks in as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an excellent 60.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

o75.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.14 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
16.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.14 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
16.82% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this week's contest, Dalton Kincaid is projected by the projections to place in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.8 targets.. Dalton Kincaid's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 35.4.. Dalton Kincaid's play as a receiver has been refined this year, totaling 3.8 adjusted receptions compared to just 2.8 last year.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

o3.5 +115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) u6.5 Receptions Made
5.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) u6.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.86% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (58.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.. The model projects the Vikings to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Vikings this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).. This year, the imposing Bills defense has allowed a mere 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-best rate in the league.

u6.5 -110
Caesars Odds logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.27 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.27 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.81% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The predictive model expects DJ Moore to accrue 6.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.. DJ Moore's 47.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 37.9.

o3.5 -116
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
2.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
10.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
10.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.. The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to earn 2.9 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile among running backs.

o1.5 -128
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.90 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.90 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Vikings to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.. T.J. Hockenson's 4.4 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a material progression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 3.0 mark.

o4.5 +105
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
1.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.43% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an extraordinary 8.9% Target Share (75th percentile) this year, James Cook stands as one of the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in football.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

o1.5 -135
BetMGM logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u18.5 Rushing Attempts
16.51 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
17.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u18.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

16.51 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
17.15% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 125.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Minnesota Vikings defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

u18.5 -110
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u7.5 Rushing Attempts
6.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
13.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u7.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

6.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
13.63% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 125.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Minnesota Vikings defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

u7.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) u8.5 Rushing Attempts
8.02 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
9.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) u8.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

8.02 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
9.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 10th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 41.1% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Vikings to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Vikings this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).

u8.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) u3.5 Rushing Attempts
2.99 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
7.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) u3.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

2.99 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
7.28% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 10th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 41.1% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Vikings to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Vikings this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).

u3.5 -155
Hard Rock Bet logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts
31.56 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
11.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

31.56 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
11.7% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Carson Wentz has attempted 30.8 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

o29.5 -125
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts
31.06 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
7.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

31.06 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
7.02% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

o29.5 -135
BetMGM logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
21.98 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
16.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.98 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
16.07% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

o19.5 -130
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions
20.42 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
15.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.42 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
15.06% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Carson Wentz has attempted 30.8 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

o18.5 -130
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.36 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.36 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.95% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an elite 19.4% Red Zone Target Share (87th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid has been as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.. Dalton Kincaid has put up quite a few more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (39.0 per game).. Dalton Kincaid's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 35.4.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

+310
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.35 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.35 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.12% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. DJ Moore has put up far more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (57.0 per game).. DJ Moore's 47.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 37.9.. DJ Moore ranks in the 80th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.40 per game.

+295
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.1 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.1 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. At the moment, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (63.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

+1400
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.5 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.5 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Vikings to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (63.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

+165
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. At the moment, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (63.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

+250
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.52% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. At the moment, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (63.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

+290
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.13% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

-108
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.41% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

+100
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.72% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a 3-point favorite this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 125.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Minnesota Vikings, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.3 per game) this year.. Minnesota's defense ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year when it comes to causing interceptions, accumulating 0.99 per game.

u0.5 -112
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.82% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Vikings to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Carson Wentz has attempted 30.8 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

o0.5 -120
bet365 logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
BUF -3.5 spread
-4.05 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
7.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
BUF -3.5 spread

PROJECTION

-4.05 PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
7.94% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

0.0 -186
BetRivers logo
TOTAL
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
Over 43.5 Total
47.86 OVER PROJECTION
+4.4 DIFFERENCE
18.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
Over 43.5 Total

PROJECTION

47.86 OVER PROJECTION
+4.4 DIFFERENCE
18.35% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o43.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING YARDS
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o202.5 Passing Yards
229.18 OVER PROJECTION
+26.7 DIFFERENCE
25.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o202.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

229.18 OVER PROJECTION
+26.7 DIFFERENCE
25.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Carson Wentz has attempted 30.8 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

o202.5 -117
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o237.5 Passing Yards
250.54 OVER PROJECTION
+13.0 DIFFERENCE
21.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o237.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

250.54 OVER PROJECTION
+13.0 DIFFERENCE
21.76% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Josh Allen's 242.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a remarkable gain in his passing skills over last season's 211.0 mark.. With an outstanding 8.27 adjusted yards-per-target (94th percentile) this year, Josh Allen stands among the most effective passers in the NFL.

o230.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards
12.89 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
25.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

12.89 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
25.8% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o5.5 -155
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u84.5 Rushing Yards
74.56 UNDER PROJECTION
-9.9 DIFFERENCE
24.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u84.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

74.56 UNDER PROJECTION
-9.9 DIFFERENCE
24.02% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 125.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Minnesota Vikings defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

u84.5 -114
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o28.5 Rushing Yards
34.19 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
22.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o28.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

34.19 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
22.68% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a 3-point favorite this week.. The predictive model expects Josh Allen to accrue 6.9 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the most among all quarterbacks.. Josh Allen isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 23.3% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among quarterbacks.. Josh Allen's 52.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season reflects a substantial gain in his rushing prowess over last season's 39.0 mark.. With an outstanding total of 7.7 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (81st percentile), Josh Allen stands among the best running QBs in football this year.

o28.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o31.5 Rushing Yards
32.55 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o31.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

32.55 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
13.04% EV

ANALYSIS

Aaron Jones has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (36.0).

o31.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards
50.38 OVER PROJECTION
+13.9 DIFFERENCE
26.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

50.38 OVER PROJECTION
+13.9 DIFFERENCE
26.89% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this week's contest, Dalton Kincaid is projected by the projections to place in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.8 targets.. Dalton Kincaid has put up quite a few more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (39.0 per game).. Dalton Kincaid's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 35.4.. Dalton Kincaid has accumulated significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).

o35.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o7.5 Receiving Yards
14.60 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
26.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o7.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

14.60 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
26.02% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Vikings to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

o7.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o8.5 Receiving Yards
14.76 OVER PROJECTION
+6.3 DIFFERENCE
25.64% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o8.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

14.76 OVER PROJECTION
+6.3 DIFFERENCE
25.64% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an extraordinary 8.9% Target Share (75th percentile) this year, James Cook stands as one of the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in football.. With a terrific 16.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (75th percentile) this year, James Cook stands among the best pass-game RBs in the league.. James Cook's 9.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a significant progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 0.0% rate.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

o8.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards
48.70 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
24.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

48.70 OVER PROJECTION
+8.2 DIFFERENCE
24.12% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.. T.J. Hockenson's 43.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a significant boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 27.0 rate.

o39.5 -135
theScore Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards
53.63 OVER PROJECTION
+8.1 DIFFERENCE
23.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

53.63 OVER PROJECTION
+8.1 DIFFERENCE
23.88% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The predictive model expects DJ Moore to accrue 6.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.. DJ Moore has put up far more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (57.0 per game).. DJ Moore's 47.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 37.9.. DJ Moore has put up a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (35.0).

o44.5 -115
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards
78.12 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
8.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

78.12 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
8.39% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.. Justin Jefferson checks in as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an excellent 60.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

o75.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.14 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
16.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.14 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
16.82% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this week's contest, Dalton Kincaid is projected by the projections to place in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.8 targets.. Dalton Kincaid's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 35.4.. Dalton Kincaid's play as a receiver has been refined this year, totaling 3.8 adjusted receptions compared to just 2.8 last year.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

o3.5 +115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) u6.5 Receptions Made
5.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) u6.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.87 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
13.86% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (58.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.. The model projects the Vikings to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Vikings this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).. This year, the imposing Bills defense has allowed a mere 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-best rate in the league.

u6.5 -110
Caesars Odds logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.27 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.27 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
11.81% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The predictive model expects DJ Moore to accrue 6.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.. DJ Moore's 47.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 37.9.

o3.5 -116
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
2.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
10.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
10.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.. The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to earn 2.9 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile among running backs.

o1.5 -128
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.90 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.90 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Vikings to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.. T.J. Hockenson's 4.4 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a material progression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 3.0 mark.

o4.5 +105
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
1.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-5.43% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an extraordinary 8.9% Target Share (75th percentile) this year, James Cook stands as one of the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in football.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

o1.5 -135
BetMGM logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u18.5 Rushing Attempts
16.51 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
17.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) u18.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

16.51 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.0 DIFFERENCE
17.15% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 125.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Minnesota Vikings defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

u18.5 -110
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u7.5 Rushing Attempts
6.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
13.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u7.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

6.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
13.63% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 125.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Minnesota Vikings defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

u7.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) u8.5 Rushing Attempts
8.02 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
9.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) u8.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

8.02 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
9.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 10th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 41.1% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Vikings to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Vikings this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).

u8.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) u3.5 Rushing Attempts
2.99 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
7.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) u3.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

2.99 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
7.28% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 10th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 41.1% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Vikings to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Vikings this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).

u3.5 -155
Hard Rock Bet logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts
31.56 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
11.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

31.56 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
11.7% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Carson Wentz has attempted 30.8 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

o29.5 -125
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts
31.06 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
7.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

31.06 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
7.02% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

o29.5 -135
BetMGM logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
21.98 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
16.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.98 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
16.07% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

o19.5 -130
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions
20.42 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
15.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o18.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.42 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
15.06% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Carson Wentz has attempted 30.8 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

o18.5 -130
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.36 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Dalton Kincaid logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Kincaid (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.36 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.95% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an elite 19.4% Red Zone Target Share (87th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid has been as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.. Dalton Kincaid has put up quite a few more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (39.0 per game).. Dalton Kincaid's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 35.4.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

+310
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.35 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DJ Moore logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
D. Moore (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.35 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.12% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. DJ Moore has put up far more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (57.0 per game).. DJ Moore's 47.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 37.9.. DJ Moore ranks in the 80th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.40 per game.

+295
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.1 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.1 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
17.57% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. At the moment, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (63.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

+1400
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.5 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.5 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Vikings to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (63.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

+165
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. At the moment, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (63.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

+250
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.52% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. At the moment, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (63.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

+290
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.13% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

-108
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
James Cook III logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Cook III (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.41% EV

ANALYSIS

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

+100
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Josh Allen logo
Buffalo Bills image thumbnail
J. Allen (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.72% EV

ANALYSIS

A rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a 3-point favorite this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 125.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Minnesota Vikings, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.3 per game) this year.. Minnesota's defense ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year when it comes to causing interceptions, accumulating 0.99 per game.

u0.5 -112
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Carson Wentz logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
C. Wentz (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.82% EV

ANALYSIS

The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz.. The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Vikings to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Carson Wentz has attempted 30.8 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

o0.5 -120
bet365 logo

Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'talco50' is picking Minnesota to cover (+2.5)

talco50 is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +5000 units on the season.

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'talco50' picks Buffalo vs Minnesota to go Over (46.5)

talco50 is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +5000 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'DIEASU' picks Buffalo vs Minnesota to go Under (46.5)

DIEASU is #10 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (4-3-0) and +3850 units on the season.

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Over
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'DIEASU' is picking Buffalo to cover (-2.5)

DIEASU is #10 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (4-3-0) and +3850 units on the season.

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BUF
MIN
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'AMOZONS' is picking Buffalo to cover (-2.5)

AMOZONS is #2 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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'AMOZONS' picks Buffalo vs Minnesota to go Over (46.5)

AMOZONS is #2 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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Over
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'A_LowaEast' picks Buffalo vs Minnesota to go Under (46.5)

A_LowaEast is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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'A_LowaEast' is picking Buffalo to cover (-2.5)

A_LowaEast is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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BUF
MIN
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'swtknguy' is picking Minnesota to cover (+3.5)

swtknguy is #3 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4400 units on the season.

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'swtknguy' picks Buffalo vs Minnesota to go Under (46.5)

swtknguy is #3 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4400 units on the season.

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Over
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'Layne17' is picking Buffalo to cover (-2.5)

Layne17 is #5 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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'Layne17' picks Buffalo vs Minnesota to go Under (46.5)

Layne17 is #5 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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Over
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'SDGOLFGUY' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

SDGOLFGUY is #5 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.

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'Ducnrun13' picks Buffalo vs Minnesota to go Over (44.5)

Ducnrun13 is #6 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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'Ducnrun13' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

Ducnrun13 is #6 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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'Ollywood' picks Buffalo vs Minnesota to go Over (44.5)

Ollywood is #7 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
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'Ollywood' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

Ollywood is #7 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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BUF
MIN
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'buffalo2007' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

buffalo2007 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'buffalo2007' picks Buffalo vs Minnesota to go Under (46.5)

buffalo2007 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'thirdperson' is picking Minnesota to cover (+3.5)

thirdperson is #8 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'artdb' picks Buffalo vs Minnesota to go Over (44.5)

artdb is #9 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.

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Over
Under
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'artdb' is picking Minnesota to cover (+3.5)

artdb is #9 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.

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MIN

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