Wide receiver Courtland Sutton leads the Broncos with 122 targets this season, including double-digit targets in each of the last four weeks. While RJ Harvey has a team-leading 12 touchdowns, his odds sit at -155, whereas Sutton, with seven touchdowns, is getting nearly 2-to-1 odds. Sutton had a midseason lull but recorded three touchdowns in his first four games and three in his last five contests. As big favorites at home, Bo Nix and the Broncos should look to air it out, making Sutton a strong bet to find the end zone.
Trey Lance came out of North Dakota State University as a highly-touted dual-threat quarterback. He rushed for 18 touchdowns in 19 games across his college career, including 14 in the 2019 season. Lance has run for just one touchdown in the NFL, so we’re getting some fairly long odds for him to find paydirt this week. Nevertheless, the Denver Broncos have allowed a few quarterback rushing touchdowns this season, including two weeks ago to Trevor Lawrence. With the Los Angeles Chargers resting some starters, look for Lance to take matters into his own hands at this nice price.
The Broncos have allowed 15 or more completions in 12 of 16 games this season, and I'm anticipating Los Angeles to set Lance up for success with short and intermediate throws Sunday afternoon. And, with the Bolts a huge underdog, look for Lance to continue airing it out throughout. Plus, opponents have averaged the sixth-most pass attempts per game (36.6) against the Broncos, and all we're asking for here is four completions a quarter.
The Broncos RB2 will likely get touches in what appears to be a cake walk against a Bolts team resting the starters. With the spread trending toward two TDS, Denver will give some extra love to its reserves and McLaughlin is a shifty back who can hit big plays. He had a season-high seven carries vs Kansas City last week and builds on that in Week 18, including his second score of the season.
Evan Engram isn’t a throwaway piece in this offense, and while he hasn’t scored since Week 5, this is a strong spot to buy in at a big number given his usage. The Chargers are expected to rest starters, giving Denver a clean path to points. Engram draws targets on 22% of his routes, and while Adam Trautman is logging heavy snaps, it’s largely as a blocker with just one red-zone target all season. Engram saw two red-zone targets last week, caught both, but failed to score. Still a great role at this price.
At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football (64.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Denver Broncos.. The projections expect the Denver Broncos to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.. The Denver O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers will be rolling with backup QB Trey Lance in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This week's spread indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Chargers, who are huge -14-point underdogs.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chargers to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 131.4 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers will be rolling with backup QB Trey Lance in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This week's spread indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Chargers, who are huge -14-point underdogs.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chargers to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 131.4 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers will be rolling with backup QB Trey Lance in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This week's spread indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Chargers, who are huge -14-point underdogs.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chargers to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 131.4 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in football.
With a 14-point advantage, the Broncos are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.. Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.. This year, the imposing Chargers defense has given up a measly 195.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-best in football.. This year, the stout Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered a paltry 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's safety corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.
With a 14-point advantage, the Broncos are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.. Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.. Evan Engram has been a less important option in his offense's passing game this year (12.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (25.0%).. Evan Engram has accrued far fewer air yards this year (18.0 per game) than he did last year (40.0 per game).. Evan Engram has posted a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (40.0).
With a 14-point advantage, the Broncos are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.. The projections expect the Denver Broncos to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers will be rolling with backup QB Trey Lance in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This week's spread indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Chargers, who are huge -14-point underdogs.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 6th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.8% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Denver's collection of DTs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL.
With a 14-point advantage, the Broncos are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.. The projections expect the Denver Broncos to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
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