Quentin Johnston Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
Q. Johnston
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Chargers @ Broncos Picks & Props
LAC vs DEN Picks
NFL Picks
Score a Touchdown
Jaleel McLaughlin Score a Touchdown (Yes: +350)
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
The Broncos RB2 will likely get touches in what appears to be a cake walk against a Bolts team resting the starters. With the spread trending toward two TDS, Denver will give some extra love to its reserves and McLaughlin is a shifty back who can hit big plays. He had a season-high seven carries vs Kansas City last week and builds on that in Week 18, including his second score of the season.
Score a Touchdown
Evan Engram Score a Touchdown (Yes: +400)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Evan Engram isn’t a throwaway piece in this offense, and while he hasn’t scored since Week 5, this is a strong spot to buy in at a big number given his usage. The Chargers are expected to rest starters, giving Denver a clean path to points. Engram draws targets on 22% of his routes, and while Adam Trautman is logging heavy snaps, it’s largely as a blocker with just one red-zone target all season. Engram saw two red-zone targets last week, caught both, but failed to score. Still a great role at this price.
Receptions Made
Courtland Sutton u4.5 Receptions Made (+105)
Projection 3.94 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
With a 12.5-point advantage, the Broncos are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 54.9% of their plays: the 11th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.. Courtland Sutton's 59.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 68.1.. Courtland Sutton's receiving performance has worsened this season, accumulating just 4.1 adjusted receptions vs 5.1 last season.
Passing Completions
Bo Nix u21.5 Passing Completions (-120)
Projection 19.18 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
With a 12.5-point advantage, the Broncos are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 54.9% of their plays: the 11th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.. This year, the stout Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered a paltry 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's safety corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.
Passing Attempts
Trey Lance o29.5 Passing Attempts (-102)
Projection 32.55 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Los Angeles Chargers will be rolling with backup QB Trey Lance in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This week's spread indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Chargers, who are huge -12.5-point underdogs.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chargers to pass on 59.9% of their downs: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 132.1 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Passing Yards
Bo Nix u218.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 202 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
With a 12.5-point advantage, the Broncos are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 54.9% of their plays: the 11th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.. This year, the imposing Chargers defense has given up a measly 195.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-best in football.. This year, the stout Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered a paltry 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.
Passing Yards
Trey Lance o171.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 179.83 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Los Angeles Chargers will be rolling with backup QB Trey Lance in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This week's spread indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Chargers, who are huge -12.5-point underdogs.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chargers to pass on 59.9% of their downs: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 132.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Receiving Yards
Courtland Sutton u57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 53.45 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
With a 12.5-point advantage, the Broncos are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 54.9% of their plays: the 11th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.. Courtland Sutton's 59.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 68.1.. Courtland Sutton's 56.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a remarkable decrease in his receiving proficiency over last season's 73.0 mark.
Rushing Yards
RH
RJ Harvey o55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 62.55 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
With a 12.5-point advantage, the Broncos are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.. The projections expect the Denver Broncos to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
LAC vs DEN Consensus Picks
63% picking L.A. Chargers
Total Picks LAC 253, DEN 148
Spread
LAC
DEN
LAC vs DEN Props
Player
Prop
Season Avg.
Best Odds
KeAndre Lambert-Smith Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
K. Lambert-Smith
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Marvin Mims Jr. Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
M. Mims Jr.
wide receiver WR • Denver
Lil'Jordan Humphrey Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
L. Humphrey
wide receiver WR • Denver
Oronde Gadsden Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
O. Gadsden
tight end TE • L.A. Chargers
Bo Nix Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
B. Nix
quarterback QB • Denver
Hassan Haskins Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
H. Haskins
running back RB • L.A. Chargers
Adam Trautman Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
A. Trautman
tight end TE • Denver
Courtland Sutton Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
C. Sutton
wide receiver WR • Denver
Nate Adkins Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
N. Adkins
tight end TE • Denver
Jaleel McLaughlin Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
J. McLaughlin
running back RB • Denver
Marcedes Lewis Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
M. Lewis
tight end TE • Denver
Tyler Conklin Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
T. Conklin
tight end TE • L.A. Chargers
Omarion Hampton Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
O. Hampton
running back RB • L.A. Chargers
Derius Davis Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
D. Davis
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Ladd McConkey Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
L. McConkey
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Adam Prentice Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
A. Prentice
fullback FB • Denver
Jaret Patterson Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
J. Patterson
running back RB • L.A. Chargers
Will Dissly Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
W. Dissly
tight end TE • L.A. Chargers
Trey Lance Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
T. Lance
quarterback QB • L.A. Chargers
Evan Engram Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
E. Engram
tight end TE • Denver
Tyler Badie Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
T. Badie
running back RB • Denver
RJ Harvey Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
R. Harvey
running back RB • Denver
Keenan Allen Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
K. Allen
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Scott Matlock Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
S. Matlock
fullback FB • L.A. Chargers
Pat Bryant Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
P. Bryant
wide receiver WR • Denver
Kimani Vidal Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers
K. Vidal
running back RB • L.A. Chargers
Troy Franklin Score a Touchdown Props • Denver
T. Franklin
wide receiver WR • Denver
LAC vs DEN Trends
Los Angeles Trends
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+3.28 Units / 13% ROI)
LAC
DEN
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 22 games (+1.00 Units / 4% ROI)
LAC
DEN
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI)
Over
Under
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.05 Units / 15% ROI)
LAC
DEN
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.05 Units / 8% ROI)
LAC
DEN
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.65 Units / 25% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have only hit the 1H Team Total Over in 9 of their last 22 games (-5.50 Units / -21% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 21 games (-4.90 Units / -16% ROI)
LAC
DEN
The Los Angeles Chargers have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 22 games (-4.85 Units / -19% ROI)
Over
Under
The Los Angeles Chargers have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 9 away games (-4.20 Units / -40% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 18 games (-3.30 Units / -16% ROI)
Denver Trends
The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
LAC
DEN
The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 45% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)
LAC
DEN
The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 45% ROI)
LAC
DEN
The Denver Broncos have only hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 21 games (-4.25 Units / -18% ROI)
Over
Under
The Denver Broncos have only hit the 1H Team Total Over in 10 of their last 21 games (-4.25 Units / -16% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (-3.95 Units / -9% ROI)
LAC
DEN
The Denver Broncos have only covered the 3Q Spread in 8 of their last 18 games (-3.85 Units / -17% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 9 games at home (-3.80 Units / -38% ROI)
LAC vs DEN Top User Picks
'skunty4' is picking Denver to cover (-12.0)
skunty4 is #1 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (13-3-0) and +7650 units on the season.
Spread
LAC
DEN
'manomanomano551' is picking Denver to cover (-12.0)
manomanomano551 is #1 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (14-2-0) and +7100 units on the season.
Spread
LAC
DEN
'Ohyarain' is picking Denver to cover (-12.0)
Ohyarain is #2 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (12-4-0) and +6600 units on the season.
Spread
LAC
DEN
'd33jay86' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+12.0)
d33jay86 is #2 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (12-3-0) and +6600 units on the season.
Spread
LAC
DEN
'lsbellmom' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+7.5)
lsbellmom is #3 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (11-5-0) and +6550 units on the season.
Spread
LAC
DEN
'Kazual12' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+7.5)
Kazual12 is #3 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (12-3-0) and +6600 units on the season.
Spread
LAC
DEN
'plasma9' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+12.0)
plasma9 is #7 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +5400 units on the season.
Spread
LAC
DEN